College football odds, predictions: Ohio State vs. Iowa, Alabama vs. Mississippi State lead Week 5

This is the kind of weekend that can fool you, college football fans.

There aren't many ranked matchups on the Week 5 slate, and after a September packed with statement games, the schedule might look like a breather. 

College football rarely cooperates with a formulaic script, however. We're circling this weekend as potentially chaotic nationwide, with several unbeaten top-10 teams going on the road to play worthy opponents across the Power Four. In fact, seven of the nation's top 10 are playing away from home, including a couple against fellow unbeatens.

Chris Hummer and I are back with our weekly picks, sorting through the games worth watching and the favorites who should be nervous. A light Top 25 schedule? We'll believe it when the weekend's over.

Season results: Brad Crawford (28-5 straight up, 19-13-1 ATS), Chris Hummer (27-6 straight up, 15-17-1 ATS)

I picked up another game on my colleague last week after nailing Florida's win over Ole Miss. I didn't feel great about the Rebels' defense heading into that one, and the Gators proceeded to rush for 302 yards with a 50-burger at home. Texas covering looked great for 3.5 quarters before Tennessee's flurry at the end in Knoxville.

All odds via FanDuel.

College Football Power Rankings: Mississippi State, Iowa among risers amid massive shakeup

Brandon Marcello

Penn State (-2.5) at Northwestern

Hummer (Northwestern +2.5): This is a big game for Northwestern. The Wildcats are opening a state-of-the-art, $875 million stadium on national TV. And if what we saw from Northwestern in the first half of last week is legitimate, the Wildcats are going to be trouble for Penn State. The Nittany Lions have an excellent defense -- eighth nationally in yards allowed per play -- but lack explosive playmakers on offense. And Northwestern is talented enough up front on both sides of the ball to be competitive. This game comes down to which QB makes more plays down the stretch. And give me Aidan Chiles to do so. … Northwestern 24, Penn State 23.

Crawford (Penn State -2.5): The Wildcats are going to be jazzed for this one as they open a new stadium, but they're catching Penn State at a bad time with the Nittany Lions losing last week's game to Wisconsin. I'm sensing a bounce-back coming for Matt Campbell's team as a small road favorite. Beware -- this is not the strongest lean of the week, but I'll take it under three points. .... Penn State 23, Northwestern 20.

Michigan (-6.5) at Minnesota

Hummer (Michigan -6.5): The value in this game is with Minnesota. The Gophers are 3-1 with a quality road win over Washington. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have played four games this season, and three of them have been decided by seven points or fewer. But … I think Michigan has found something with Bryce Underwood. He's played much better the last two weeks -- a 68% completion rate, a four-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio -- and Michigan is by far the best defense the Gophers have seen this season. The Wolverines respond on the road. … Michigan 27, Minnesota 20.

Crawford (Michigan -6.5): Is Bryce Underwood starting to figure it out offensively for Jason Beck and the Wolverines? Kyle Whittingham seems to think so despite the loss to Iowa last time out. He's confident in his starting quarterback's development and likes what he has seen since the first two games of the season left much to be desired. Has Minnesota come down from its big win over Washington that included a bloodied PJ Fleck? That's what you'll have to ask yourself here. ... Michigan 27, Minnesota 20.

No. 10 BYU (-6.5) at TCU

Hummer (TCU +6.5): This is a critical game for Sonny Dykes and TCU. The Horned Frogs are off to an underwhelming 2-2 start, including 0-2 against Power Four competition. Meanwhile, BYU is unbeaten, coming off a bye, and is easily one of the most talented teams in the Big 12. If there's any good news for TCU, it's that the Horned Frogs have a top 25 run defense, which is what you need to keep the Cougars in check. TCU needs QB Jaden Craig to play much cleaner -- he had two interceptions in a loss last week -- and any sort of run game to develop. TCU is more than talented enough to pull the upset. I just don't trust what I've seen so far from the program's new-look offense. BYU wins, and the Horned Frogs cover. … BYU 28, TCU 24.

Crawford (BYU -6.5): I almost tossed this one in our "upset alert" group this week, but don't have the guts to pick against BYU right now, especially given the heat on Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs. BYU's first real test comes against Notre Dame in a couple of weeks. However, this is a classic trap game, and the Cougars must not overlook TCU in a vital Big 12 matchup for both teams. ... BYU 31, TCU 17.

Washington at No. 18 USC (-8.5)

Hummer (Washington +8.5): This game, in some ways, will come down to weakness versus weakness. USC's defense is much the same as it's been in recent years -- a problem. That group ranks 115th nationally in yards per play. Meanwhile, Washington is struggling to move the ball. The Huskies are 84th nationally in points per game and rank 109th in third-down conversions. Washington's offensive line is giving up a 33.7 pressure rate, and its run game is suffering from a lack of creation -- the Huskies average the fewest rushing yards after contact in the FBS. That's a lot of words on weaknesses. But one thing I can count on is USC's passing attack. Give me the Trojans to rebound after a tough week. … USC 34, Washington 27.

Crawford (USC -8.5): The good news for Lincoln Riley in this one is that Washington's no longer ranked after last week's loss to Minnesota. Riley's 5-15 against top-25 teams with the Trojans following another letdown in a big spot vs. Oregon, another indicator he doesn't get it done against the meat on the schedule. Thought to be a potential Big Ten contender as well, the Huskies have a long way to go and unfortunately, do not match up well with the Trojans at the skill spots. ... USC 34, Washington 24.

No. 4 Miami (-16.5) at Clemson

Hummer (Miami -16.5): This should be an interesting game. Clemson is by far the most talented team the Hurricanes have faced this year. Miami, meanwhile, represents a big game do-over for the Tigers after getting blasted in Week 1 by LSU. I think the Tigers are solid enough on defense -- both with their pass rush and secondary -- to slow Miami's explosive passing attack. I just don't know how Clemson will consistently score with Tait Reynolds under center.  Clemson wants to run the ball to take the pressure off Reynolds, and did so effectively last week against Cal. It's just a different challenge against Miami, which is allowing less than two yards per carry this season. It's close for a bit, but the Hurricanes pull away late. … Miami 38, Clemson 20.

Crawford (Miami -16.5): Even as a heavy favorite on the road in the ACC's version of Death Valley, Miami can take a big swing in national perception if the Hurricanes go to Clemson and lay a crooked number on the Tigers. That's the mindset for this offense, according to Shannon Dawson's rant this week on the various polls and rankings that are disrespecting this team. Y'all know I've had Miami as my personal No. 1 since the spring, and nothing thus far has changed my mind on that opinion. Yes, Clemson's 2-0 in the ACC, but the Tigers can't score. ... Miami 34, Clemson 10.

No. 3 Notre Dame (-21.5) at North Carolina

Hummer (North Carolina +21.5): Hot take -- North Carolina is not a disaster. The Tar Heels have a quality win over TCU and pushed Clemson to the brink on the road. Given a bye week to prepare for the Irish, the Tar Heels will be rested and prepared. This is not to say an upset is coming. I just think UNC matches up OK in this one. North Carolina is much better along the lines of scrimmage this year and has a top-45 pass defense. The Tar Heels don't have the passing attack to score with a high frequency in this one. But I'd expect them to control the clock and hang around. … Notre Dame 31, North Carolina 13.

Crawford (North Carolina +21.5): The Tar Heels have made noticeable strides this season, but the loss at Clemson might not go away in a hurry. North Carolina led throughout that one, only to squander a fourth-quarter opportunity following a lightning delay. Notre Dame has already beaten three Power Four teams, but it may get tested by this Tar Heels defensive front. I'll take more than three touchdowns with the home team and a backdoor cover here in a matchup that will never be all that competitive. ... Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 17.

Auburn at No. 17 Tennessee (-8.5)

Hummer (Auburn +8.5): These are two very similar offenses that sprung up from the same veer-and-shoot tree. Both of these teams like pace and to stack up points. Given that, it's the defenses that will determine this game. Both Auburn and Tennessee are top 50 units. But the Vols have a truly elite defensive front and a top-20 pass defense. Auburn, for its part, is giving up nearly 240 passing yards per game. Do the Tigers have the more proven quarterback? Absolutely. But I'm happy to roll with Tennessee's defense in this one. … Tennessee 24, Auburn 20. 

Crawford (Auburn +8.5): This line may get under a touchdown by kickoff, so keep an eye on this one prior to locking it in -- depending on your preferred side. After giving up 10 sacks against Texas, the Vols must perform better up front and give freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon an opportunity to operate. Not all of those sacks were on missed blocks, but Auburn defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin will send pressure and extra guys to ensure Brandon's afternoon is a frustrating one. ... Tennessee 31, Auburn 24.

No. 7 Alabama (-4.5) at No. 16 Mississippi State

Hummer (Alabama -4.5): I hope this game is awesome. It's a meeting of two of the best quarterbacks in college football. Kamario Taylor has been a supernova for Mississippi State this year. Keelon Russell, a bit more quietly, has been arguably just as good. What I think this game comes down to is Mississippi State's offensive line and how Alabama's secondary holds up. Alabama ranks ninth nationally with a 40% pressure rate, while the Bulldogs are a top-20 pass-blocking unit. If Alabama can pressure Taylor and eliminate the Bulldogs' long-developing routes, it's a big advantage. The Tide has an elite secondary unit, at least on paper. But that group was dissected against Florida State. If the Bulldogs win those battles, it could be a shootout. This is the type of game where you could see Taylor's legs come into play more often. But I just think Alabama is a little better. … Alabama 37, Mississippi State 31.

Crawford (Alabama -4.5): Kamario Taylor is going to get his this weekend, but my question is how many stops can Mississippi State provide its quarterback defensively? Alabama's already been exploited by several opposing teams through the air, but none have found an answer for Keelon Russell and his ability to keep this offense on schedule and in rhythm throughout. Since his multi-turnover against Kentucky a few weeks ago, Russell's been brilliant and might be the SEC's early-season MVP if it's not his counterpart on the other sideline. ... Alabama 37, Mississippi State 31.

No. 8 Florida (-4.5) at No. 25 Missouri 

Hummer (Missouri +4.5): This is probably the toughest test for Florida's offense so far this year. The Tigers rank 19th nationally in yards allowed per carry and can at least limit Jadan Baugh. They also have a pass rush that can speed up Aaron Philo in obvious pass situations. Missouri does really miss Ahmad Hardy, ranking just 89th nationally in rushing yards per carry. But Austin Simmons has been excellent since transferring in from Ole Miss. Florida is a justified road favorite. But I think Missouri keeps this close enough to cover at home. … Florida 35, Missouri 34.

Crawford (Missouri +4.5): Here's the Week 5 line that provided immediate pause when putting this week's card together. Something ain't right here. Florida just rushed for 302 yards against Ole Miss and looks the part under first-year coach Jon Sumrall, while the Tigers are licking their road-woe wounds following a loss at Mississippi State. Winning away from home in the SEC is hard, and the Gators are going to get all they can handle according to oddsmakers. ... Florida 31, Missouri 27.

No. 5 Ohio State (-14.5) at No. 14 Iowa

Hummer (Iowa -14.5): Things have not gone well for Iowa against Ryan Day. The Hawkeyes are 0-2 against Day's Buckeyes with an average margin of defeat of 36 points. Ohio State is just as talented as it was in 2022 and 2024. Iowa is just as stingy defensively. The question in this game becomes, can Iowa's newly invigorated offense, which ranks 37th nationally in yards per play, close the skill gap? Iowa will control the clock. Iowa will keep Ohio State in front of it defensively. I just wonder if the Hawkeyes can score enough to pull the upset. I'm betting the offensive uptick in production is real enough. Iowa keeps it close at home. … Ohio State 27, Iowa 14.

Crawford (Ohio State -14.5): This is a dangerous spot for the Buckeyes, and Ryan Day knows it. Equipped with one of college football's fiercest defenses, Iowa's not going to let Ohio State get anything easy this weekend. Some of those big plays from the opposition might be unavoidable, however, with Heisman frontrunner Jeremiah Smith on the outside. Keeping the explosive to a minimum is the goal for the Hawkeyes, who were able to sustain stops during their win at Michigan last week. ... Ohio State 24, Iowa 7.