Geoff Russ: This election is for the B.C. Conservatives’ taking

Does it really matter if voters are unhappy about the upcoming snap election in British Columbia?

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Yes, it certainly will not help Premier David Eby, who triggered an early contest on Sunday. But irritated voters will not be enough for the BC Conservatives to form government.

Eby is bringing voters to the polls early on Oct. 24, well before the fixed election date in 2028. His reasoning is that the province needs a strong majority government to deal with President Donald Trump. If early reactions are any indicator, few are buying it. People can see right through this rice-paper-thin cover for an opportunistic contest.

However, recent snap elections that were equally opportunistic did not end in disaster for the incumbents. People may dislike being swept up in an unnecessary early campaign, but that is different from deciding which party will govern.

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In February 2025, Ontario Premier Doug Ford used Trump’s “51st state” rhetoric and threats of economic warfare to call an early election, more than a year before the scheduled 44th general election.

According to Angus Reid at the time, 78 per cent of respondents thought that the early election served Ford’s interests, rather than Ontario’s, including 58 per cent of those who planned to vote for his Progressive Conservative government. Ford went on to secure another majority mandate. Evidently, Ontario voters could hold their noses and look past a dirty trick.

By contrast, when Justin Trudeau called an early federal election in 2021, Abacus Data found that 34 per cent of previous Liberal voters said they were less likely to vote Liberal again because of it. Trudeau still retained his minority government but failed in his bid to secure a parliamentary majority, despite very favourable pre-election polling. The composition of the House of Commons itself remained largely unchanged when the contest was over.

Irritated voters in B.C. are not automatically rebellious, though half of them believe it is time for a change in government. The survey that produced that finding was conducted just before the B.C. Conservatives collapsed, then rebuilt and re-energized themselves on the fly.

When David Eby began to signal that he was going to call an early election, the (in)famous Kerry-Lynne Findlay was still heading the B.C. Conservatives. The long list of controversies that plagued her four-month tenure is already the stuff of legend.

One pollster put Findlay’s approval rating at just 17 per cent. That number probably fuelled Eby’s lust for an early contest to secure another four years as premier and avoid being replaced as NDP leader.

Then, on Sunday, Findlay was out. Her relatively unknown successor, Lorne Doerkson, the MLA for Cariboo-Chilcotin, leading the Conservatives into the election. Former rebel MLA Peter Milobar and six other MLAs who jumped ship under Findlay have since returned to the fold. Doerkson himself wasted no time explicitly condemning Donald Trump. If he keeps that up, the NDP’s hopes of using an anti-Trump strategy could be dashed.

Within 48 hours, the Conservatives had gone from a crumbling husk to an eager and feisty challenger. They wasted no time calling out David Eby for his selfish early election call, as they should.

If the Conservatives’ opening salvo is any indication, they plan on mounting a full-scale campaign against the NDP where it is weakest. In a public statement, the Conservatives promised action on affordability, the security of private property rights and public safety.

Importantly, the Conservatives have made it clear that they will fight this campaign over the government’s record rather than dwell on the rescheduling of the election. The B.C. Conservatives do not need to turn the campaign into a policy seminar. They should keep their promises simple, readable and easy for voters to memorize.

In 2006, Stephen Harper kept his campaign tight and disciplined, focusing on cleaning up government, cutting taxes, tackling crime and supporting parents. B.C. voters are tired and want a reliable and trustworthy challenger who can replace Eby.

Furthermore, the Conservatives have pledged to restore pride in being British Columbian. Under the NDP, the campaign against B.C. history has been vicious. A stroll through almost any publicly funded institution will reveal some form of ritual humiliation in which British Columbians are accused of being “settlers” (a pejorative in progressive circles) and of being complicit in “colonialism” (another dirty word on the left).

People want to feel hopeful about the future and good about who they are. Apart from NDP partisans, these feelings are in short supply.

Eby wanted to run against Trump, using Kerry-Lynne Findlay as a surrogate. With her gone, he will have to pray for a stumble or misstep from the B.C. Conservatives, who now smell blood in the water. Still, the election will fall right in the American midterms, when the Canadian addiction to U.S. politics will be at its most severe, which may yet have an effect.

The NDP cannot credibly defend its record on finances, job creation or public safety, while its record on health care is marred by repeated emergency-room closures across the province, with 2400 closures in three years. This nearly decade-long stretch of NDP governance has been marked by decline, and the botched early election call has left Eby with little ammunition.

However, the B.C. NDP is full of veterans who have won three consecutive elections. They are doubtless working around the clock to rebuild their election platform, and they still have time at this early stage.

Voters will not forget the shamelessness of Eby’s snap election, but the B.C. Conservatives will need more than that to smash the NDP government on Oct. 24.

If the Conservatives’ energy over the last 72 hours is any indication, they have much more in store for the premier, and British Columbians are eager to see it.

National Post

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