2026 BMW Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions by model that's nailed 17 majors
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SportsLine's model simulated the BMW Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed surprising picks for the second event in the 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs
• 3 min read
The 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs continue on Thursday with the 2026 BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Mo. Scottie Scheffler didn't win any majors in 2026, but he was dominant in the opening event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship by eight strokes. He remains atop the points standings with plenty of room to spare, and is one of 50 golfers who advanced to the BMW Championship 2026. Visit our DraftKings promo code review and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you bet $5:
Scheffler is the favorite at +290 (risk $100 to win $290) in the 2026 BMW Championship odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Other top contenders this week include Rory McIlroy (+1600) and Sam Burns and Ludvig Aberg, both at +1800. Before locking in any 2026 BMW Championship picks, be sure to see the 2026 BMW Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
Now that the 2026 BMW Championship field is set, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
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2026 BMW Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for: Ludvig Aberg, one of the favorites at +1800, barely cracks the top 10. Aberg has recorded two straight top-10 finishes, but hadn't finished better than T17 in his prior five events. He did finish T2 at this event last year, though that was carried heavily by a second-round 63, while he shot higher than 70 in his other three rounds. Additionally, he's also winless this season and hasn't finished better than a share of third, so betting him to win at lower odds brings a lot of risk. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: The model is high on Tommy Fleetwood at +2000, saying he's a strong win contender and a value top-5 bet. He's been in contention virtually every week he's played, finishing in the top 25 13 times in his 17 events, with eight top-10s and four top-5s this year. He's one of the most accurate drivers on tour as well, a huge asset as players have to avoid the thick rough at Bellerive. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2026 BMW Championship picks
The model is also targeting a massive longshot of around +3000 to make a strong run up the leaderboard. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 BMW Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 BMW Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 BMW Championship odds, field
Get full 2026 BMW Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.
(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +290
Rory McIlroy +1600
Sam Burns +1800
Ludvig Åberg +1800
Tommy Fleetwood +2000
Xander Schauffele +2000
Cameron Young +2200
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2700
Viktor Hovland +2700
Chris Gotterup +2700
Si Woo Kim +3000
Patrick Cantlay +3000
Wyndham Clark +3000
Collin Morikawa +3500
Tom Kim +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Jake Knapp +4000
Russell Henley +4500
Maverick McNealy +4500
Kurt Kitayama +4500
Robert MacIntyre +4500
Min Woo Lee +5000
Michael Brennan +5500
Michael Thorbjornsen +6000
Adam Scott +6000
Alex Noren +6000
J.J. Spaun +6000
Ryan Gerard +6000
Rickie Fowler +6500
Sungjae Im +6500
Jacob Bridgeman +7000
Justin Rose +7000
Ben Griffin +7000
Kristoffer Reitan +8000
Nicolai Højgaard +8000
Gary Woodland +8000
Alex Smalley +10000
Aaron Rai +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Bud Cauley +10000
Alex Fitzpatrick +10000
J.T. Poston +12500
Ryan Fox +12500
Ryo Hisatsune +12500
Nico Echavarria +15000
Eric Cole +15000
Sahith Theegala +17500
Matt McCarty +22500
Sepp Straka +25000
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