Ethiopia back to civil war? Horn of Africa fears spillover effect of renewed fighting
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Issued on:
43:10 min
From the show
Reading time 1 min
After contagion in the Arabian Peninsula, should the entire Horn of Africa fear a domino effect? Just as Donald Trump’s decision to invade Iran drew the Saudis back to Yemen: did threats over the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb light the fuse in Ethiopia, where last week, unresolved issues between the government and its Tigray region erupted? Could a potential return to civil war draw in regional rivals?
Ethiopia didn’t need pressure over the Red Sea to ignite. The breakdown of dialogue after the 2022 Pretoria agreement was always going to be a ticking time bomb for Africa’s second-most populous nation. And in four years, alliances have shifted… with neighboring Eritrea no longer on Abiy Ahmed’s side and Addis Ababa accusing Egypt and Sudan of supporting the TPLF rebels. Sudan with its own vicious civil war where Abiy’s accused of siding with the same UAE whose arming of RSF militias is well documented. How and who to stop a return in Ethiopia to all-out civil war? Who to prevent a regional war?
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.
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