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Monday, October 5, 2026

Rob Breakenridge: Alberta separatist leaders are the movement’s greatest liability

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Mitch Sylvestre
Separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre is seen during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026, as they submit boxes of signatures in the hope of triggering an independence referendum. Photo by HENRY MARKEN /AFP via Getty Images

For those committed to federalism and Alberta’s continued existence as a province of Canada, last week brought welcome news.

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A major and obvious component of that was the announcement that the new Pacific Link pipeline is to be designated as a project in the national interest. It’s a much needed win-win for Alberta and Canada, and federal embracing and prioritizing of the project sends an important message right now.

Last week also brought us a direct and forceful intervention into the debate over Alberta’s future from former prime minister Stephen Harper, who still looms large as a respected political figure in Alberta.

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In an op-ed published in Postmedia newspapers (including National Post), Harper ably laid out the case for Canada and the case against the risks and uncertainty of separation.

Not that anyone would necessarily question Harper’s commitment to the country, but his entry into the debate was one federalists have been eagerly awaiting. It also serves as a reminder of the fortuitous circumstances for federalists that the separatist cause doesn’t have any leaders or spokespeople with anywhere near the sort of gravitas and respect that Harper possesses.

Indeed, as Harper himself notes in his op-ed, “there is nothing resembling the credible leadership necessary to establish a new country.”

That is, to put it mildly, a huge understatement.

Mind you, some of the organizers and self-appointed leaders of the separatist movement seemed convinced of not only their own credibility, but also the idea that they somehow have a duty or a mandate to begin establishing a new country.

Ultimately, the case for or against separation isn’t about those making the arguments, but rather the arguments themselves. Despite historic and recent frustrations, Albertans may be disinclined to want to break up the country regardless of who is telling them otherwise.

However, it has become quite apparent that the separatist movement’s leaders have turned into a major liability for their own cause.

The latest evidence for that emerges from a lengthy story in the Globe & Mail on Saturday, which details the extent to which Alberta separatist leaders have cultivated relationships with — and sought support from — U.S. Republican and MAGA figures.

We’ve long known of attempts by separatist leaders to solicit support from various American figures, which has included actual meetings in Washington, D.C. This story goes further, however, detailing extensive outreach to influential operatives who have openly advocated for U.S. annexation of Alberta, and — shockingly — offers from separatist leaders of Alberta oil royalties and other resources to the Americans “in exchange for help transitioning to independence.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has clearly cast an enormous shadow over Canadian politics, and the Alberta referendum is not immune from that. Trump in many ways is an albatross for the separatist cause. That’s been exacerbated, though, by the movement’s own barely concealed solidarity with MAGA and their excitement for the strategic opportunity the U.S. president represents.

However Albertans feel about their treatment as a province, the idea of being the 51st state polls much lower than even what independence manages to muster. And yet, many of those who profess to be the biggest backers of Alberta independence seem far too comfortable with the idea of U.S. dominance over Alberta. It’s an awkward contradiction, to say the least

That’s not to say these leaders are incompetent buffoons. They’ve seized an opportunity that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith created by forcing a referendum on whether to pursue independence, and they’ve become — for now — a force to be reckoned with within the province’s ruling UCP.

Still, though, it’s worth noting that the separatist petition effort — with just under 223,000 verified signatures — would have fallen short of Alberta’s previous referendum threshold. It also fell well short of their own confident predictions of anywhere from 600,000 to one million signatures. As one separatist leader put it, “if we don’t get 750,000, we might as well not have the referendum.”

The Globe report also offers new details on the massive data breach involving Alberta’s list of electors.  The story outlines meeting between separatist leaders and the U.S. Republicans behind sophisticated voter-mobilization software, which was ultimately adapted into an Alberta effort known as the Centurion Project. That venture, of course, is at the centre of the investigation into the leak and misuse of the electors list.

Again, all of these questionable strategies, political agendas, backroom dealings, infighting, and blunders do not necessarily invalidate arguments around Confederation’s shortcomings or Alberta’s viability as a nation.

But the leaders of the movement have ultimately done the cause a disservice by inviting attention to issues around American interference, possible U.S. annexation, problematic campaign strategies and technology, and — ultimately — questions about the judgment of the movement’s leaders themselves.

Are these really the people that should be entrusted with guiding Alberta through the breakup of one country and safeguarding that independence from another, much larger and voracious neighbour that aims for continental domination?

It would appear that those who make the biggest show of waving and wearing the Alberta flag are not looking out for Alberta’s best interests.

National Post

Rob Breakenridge is a Calgary-based podcaster and writer. He can be found at robbreakenridge.ca and reached at rob.breakenridge@gmail.com 

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