The Senate map expands (again): From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Bridget Bowman looks at the latest red state Democrats are making a play for in the battle for the Senate. Plus, Jane C. Timm provides an overview of the key secretary of state races on the midterm ballot.

— Adam Wollner

Democrats jump into the Mississippi Senate race

By Bridget Bowman

Two weeks out from Election Day, Senate Democrats’ top super PAC is launching a new ad campaign in the Mississippi Senate race, the latest example of the party seeking to make inroads in traditionally Republican states in the fight for the majority.

Senate Majority PAC announced a $1.2 million ad campaign in the state through Nov. 3, beginning with a 30-second spot that boosts prosecutor Scott Colom as a Democrat who will “fight corruption in both parties” and casts GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith as a “do-nothing” incumbent.

“Senate Majority PAC has been watching this race closely, and it is clear Colom is running a competitive race that has put Hyde-Smith on her heels,” Lauren French, the super PAC’s spokesperson, said in a statement, also noting that the group will be advertising on TV and digital platforms.

The group, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has been shifting its focus to deep-red states amid President Donald Trump’s sinking approval ratings. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate, which means flipping multiple states Trump won handily in 2024.

Mississippi is the reddest state the super PAC has jumped into so far — Trump won it by 23 points two years ago. A Democrat has not won a Senate race in Mississippi since 1982.

Senate Majority PAC is also spending in Kansas, which Trump won by 16 points, as well as other states the president carried by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.

The group’s GOP counterpart, Senate Leadership Fund, is also airing ads in those states, with the exception of Mississippi. In addition, SLF has poured money into South Carolina to shore up GOP Sen. Darline Graham as she seeks a full term in office, and into Nebraska, where Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces a challenge from independent Dan Osborn.

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Battleground state voters weigh who should oversee their elections

By Jane C. Timm

Voters in a handful of swing states will decide next month who will hold critical election oversight power during the next presidential contest.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada — which have all been critical battlegrounds in recent national elections — have secretary of state races on the ballot. A role that was once under the radar, these offices have become much more high profile amid a constant drumbeat of unfounded election fraud claims from President Donald Trump and his allies.

Secretary of state races in 2022 in particular received outsize national attention in the wake of Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 results. In that election cycle, Democrats spent more than $71 million on campaign ads for secretary of state races across the country, while Republicans spent nearly $15 million, according to data from AdImpact.

This year, spending is down across the 26 secretary of state races on the ballot: Democratic campaigns and outside groups have spent $16.6 million on ads, compared to more than $5 million by the Republicans.

But the emphasis is once again on the narrowly divided swing states that are expected to be at the center of the 2028 presidential map.

In Arizona and Nevada, two Democratic incumbents are running against far-right Republicans who have pushed election conspiracy theories. Meanwhile, open-seat contests in Georgia and Michigan have drawn Republicans who are casting themselves as moderates looking to increase trust, while Democrats paint them as Trump allies who will undermine confidence in elections.

Former Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a Republican, said GOP candidates vying to be their states’ top election officials face a difficult balance: They must appeal to Trump’s ardent supporters, who believe there is widespread fraud, without alienating independents.

“You know what happened; you know what safeguards exist in your state and across the country. In the battlegrounds, it’s almost like you have to go full throttle” on election denialism, he said. “But then in doing so, you make it very hard, if not impossible, to win it in the fall.”

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🗞️ Today's other top stories

• 📊 The Data Dive: In his subscriber-only newsletter, Steve Kornacki digs into one of the biggest polling misses in 2020 — Republican Sen. Susan Collins’ victory in Maine — and what that can tell us about her close race this year against Democrat Troy Jackson. Read more →
• 🛣️ On the trail: As early in-person voting kicked off in the Texas Senate race, Republican Ken Paxton campaigned alongside Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while Democrat James Talarico rallied with several cast members from “Friday Night Lights.” Read more →
• 📱 Social media swirl: A video featuring the estranged mother of Amy Acton, the Democratic candidate for governor in Ohio, has presented an acrimonious turn in the closing weeks of a nasty race. Read more →
• 🚫 Split decision: Vice President JD Vance declined to endorse Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after Trump publicly backed Netanyahu as he seeks re-election this month. Read more →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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