Brisbane Lions slump a long time coming for AFLW powerhouse

Brisbane enters its round nine match against Hawthorn in an uncomfortable position.

Already two games out of the top eight, a loss would make a finals series mathematically impossible for the perennial contender.

Across AFLW history the Lions have missed finals just once, 2019, and made seven of nine grand finals.

So the come-down this year with just two wins from eight starts across the opening two months seems like a stark fall.

They have been caught in the eye of a perfect storm, making the 2025 Grand Finalist a bottom-eight side, and maybe that's not such a bad thing.

The personnel problem

Across the opening decade of the AFLW the Lions have been durable, with coach Craig Starcevich regularly enjoying his pick of the list each week.

High-performance manager Matt Green has been a driver of this.

This year things have been different. Two-time premiership forward Taylor Smith was traded to Sydney over the off-season, as were premiership duo Poppy Boltz and Ellie Hampson to Greater Western Sydney and Port Adelaide, respectively.

All-Australian forward Courtney Hodder has been unavailable this year due to pregnancy, stalwart Ally Anderson missed the opening four rounds of the season, her first ever absence, with a hamstring concern.

And throughout the year a number of other players have spent time on the sidelines nursing injuries.

This all adds to an aging playing list with a heavy reliance still on those senior players to set the tone.

For the first time in its history, Brisbane has been challenged for depth and player availability and it has exacerbated already emerging issues in its game style.

Game style gaps

Brisbane has always been a hard-running, super fit team, relying on that to plug any holes that its game style might offer. 

Unfortunately, this is the growth area for most other clubs in recent years, closing the gap on Brisbane at the top of the pack.

No longer will long bombs toward the front half into space for its runners beat the best teams. The increasing defensive strategy and organisation across the competition plans for this attacking style.

The Lions have struggled to establish more nuance across their ball movement.

Many of their players have been recruited based on their athletic attributes given the game style they were expected to play, but are struggling to adapt toward more of a precise ball movement game.

The area of the ground where this hurts most is with the Lions' forward 50 entries. 82.8 per cent of their entries turn into opposition rebounds, the fourth-highest rate across the AFLW this year. 

The only sides conceding higher rebound rates are Port Adelaide (85.1 per cent), Collingwood (85.6 per cent), and St Kilda (87 per cent).

Blazing away through the middle of the ground and either kicking to an outnumber, or putting the ball out of their forwards' advantage, has been a common theme of the Lions this year, but it's not a brand-new problem.

Brisbane's goal efficiency, goals per inside 50, has been steadily dropping since its premiership season of 2023, hitting a club-low of 15.1 per cent this year. 

It simply isn't getting bang for buck up forward and hasn't for a while.

Inefficiencies in attack

Some of this can be the result of personnel with no Smith, Hodder, or Neasa Dooley. But more of this is due to haphazard attacking movement.

The club boasts the second-lowest disposal efficiency in the AFLW this year, using the ball at just 59.0 per cent, ahead of only contested beasts Port Adelaide, and this is another metric that has steadily dropped for the Lions over recent years.

Their ball use is getting more panicked, less considered, and less effective over time.

What they're giving up

Where the Lions have typically been strongest is in defence. They've prided themselves on squeezing the ground, minimising opposition inside 50s, and making life hard for forward lines when they do get into attacking positions.

This has been another steady shift, now conceding a club-high 36.1 inside 50s per game. While some of this has been due to the aforementioned poor ball use and, therefore, turnovers, another large piece has been weakening control around stoppage.

The Lions are losing clearance by 6.3 per game this year, the second-greatest average deficit behind 2017. They are giving up 20.6 points from the source per game. This is an increase of more than a goal compared to its 12.0 points conceded from stoppage on average last year.

They are being burnt at stoppage, and burnt badly.

It means more pressure on the back line to defend more inside 50s and ultimately greater scores conceded each week.

Lions' weakening defence

All of this has contributed to an unfamiliar feeling for the Lions: not being considered a contender for finals.

But it's not necessarily a bad thing as it's a chance to regenerate, get some rare games into the kids.

Claudia Wright, Marlo Graham, Sophie Peters, Evie Long, and Asher Fearn-Wannan have all played a lot more footy than they would have expected and load up with their highly-rated academy prospects in December's draft.

Before that, however, they'll be considering Sunday's clash with the Hawks as one last throw at the stumps.

Against former midfield coach Daniel Webster, and as inaugural Lion Kaitlyn Ashmore brings up game number 100 wearing the brown and gold, they will be hunting a win to remain a narrow chance at yet another finals series.