Singapore is scrambling to stabilize birth rates. Experts see lessons for the U.S.

Pedestrians cross a road in Singapore's Chinatown district. The country's leaders rolled out a sweeping new policy aimed at shoring up birthrates. ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP hide caption

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ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP

When Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong gave his annual address in late August, he said his government would invest vast new resources to tackle a national crisis: the dangerous decline in the island country's birthrate.

"We want to make a fundamental shift in how we support families," Wong said. "We will walk alongside parents throughout the journey of raising their children."

The package Wong unveiled offers the equivalent of roughly $55,000 per baby. The plan starts with a $7,000 cash payment at birth and is followed by annual payments and credits that continue until the child is 16 years old. According to Wong, the steps are needed to counter a looming demographic crisis that he said threatens "our ability to keep Singapore going."

Singapore is different in many ways from the U.S., a much smaller nation with a population of just over six million. Birthrates have fallen much more rapidly. But Karen Guzzo, an expert on family development and demographic trends at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said many American couples who are weighing parenthood need this kind of help.

"I was reading through what Singapore is doing and it's hard not to drool with envy," Guzzo said. "It [offers] investments in children and family for an extended period of time and I think that's really important."

Population decline an "existential" crisis for some countries

The urgency in Singapore to address falling birthrates grew earlier this year when the country's deputy prime minister, Gan Kim Yong, told parliament that the nation's "total fertility rate" — a figure estimating the number of children each woman will choose to have in their lifetimes — had plunged again.

In 2000, Singapore's total fertility rate matched the current rate of the U.S., which is roughly 1.6 children per woman. But in 2025, the rate slid to just .87, according to government data. Singapore's leaders say that's so low, it could lead to a population collapse of more than 50% in a single generation.

"This is an existential challenge," Gan told parliament, warning that the country's demographic crisis could soon face a point of no return. "Over time it will be practically impossible to reverse the trend because we will have fewer and fewer women who can bear children."

To counter that trend, Singapore's new family program will also include more affordable daycare and better access to housing. It roughly triples the amount of paid leave, allowing married couples with three children to take up to 24 days off work each year. The plan also expands efforts to help fathers spend more time parenting.

Most demographers and economists say Singapore's national campaign is unlikely to dramatically boost birthrates, especially in the short term. But it could offer a model for slowing or halting alarming declines.

"There are certainly elements that other countries could learn from in this new package, including affordable child care and reducing the housing burden for young families," said Xiujian Peng, who studies Asian demographic trends at Victoria University in Australia.

A growing number of nations, including Chile, China, Italy, Japan, Poland and South Korea, have seen birthrates fall to levels similar to Singapore, where demographers say rapid population aging and decline are possible.

What about the U.S.?

Birthrates in the U.S. are still nearly twice those of Singapore, but have fallen steadily since 2007. They now stand well below the "replacement rate" that researchers say is needed to maintain a stable population.

The number of young people in the U.S. under age 25 has already begun to fall, while the population of retirement-age seniors is surging.

"I do think [U.S. birthrates] are likely to continue trending downward," Guzzo said. She noted that efforts to support family size in the U.S. have so far been much more modest than in other countries. "We're tweaking with child tax credits and we've got the Trump accounts. Those things aren't going to do much."

Many U.S. families are eligible for a federal child tax credit, and President Trump created savings accounts, which may come with $1,000 in government seed money for some babies born while he's in office. But those benefits are a fraction of what Singapore is offering.

According to the U.S. Labor Department, most American workers get no paid family leave. Trump has been an outspoken opponent of any role for the federal government helping with childcare, one of the biggest costs for families.

"Don't send any money for daycare," Trump said during a speech on April 1. "The United States can't take care of daycare, that has to be up to a state. We can't take care of daycare, we're a big country, we have 50 states we have all these other people, we're fighting wars, we can't take care of day care."

But Guzzo said this is the moment, before the US. reaches a demographic breaking point like Singapore's, when an ambitious family support program might help the most. "There is more potential if we could just help people have the kids they want to have," she said.

In rolling out Singapore's plan, Wong said women and families won't be pressured to have more kids. "Ultimately of course, the decision to have children is a deeply personal one," he said. His speech avoided the kind of pro-natalist, culture war language that often shape debates over parenting in the U.S.

Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong announced a new initiative to support families. This comes as Singapore faces a looming demographic crisis because of falling birthrates. MOHD RASFAN/AFP hide caption

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MOHD RASFAN/AFP

Wong also acknowledged this new program won't solve his country's demographic crisis. He said that means the country, whose citizens are mostly ethnic Chinese, will need high rates of immigration well into the future.

That part of Singapore's demographic strategy is unpopular with many Singaporeans. Roughly 40% of the country's population is already made up of noncitizens, many of them Indian and Malay. But Wong said to survive, his country will have to welcome foreign migrants and workers.

"If we rely only on births, our citizen population will shrink. We will age more rapidly and there will be fewer younger Singaporeans to support a growing number of seniors," he said.

Here again, demographers and economists say U.S. policy looks very different. Despite historically low birthrates that keep falling, the Trump administration is working to strip visa status from hundreds of thousands of migrants now living in the U.S. legally. That move is expected to force many young families, including those with American children, to leave.