Michigan, Texas among top 25 teams on upset alert in a landmine-filled Week 4

Several heavy favorites must watch their footing against sneaky-good opponents this Saturday

Sep 24, 2026 at 3:39 pm ET • 3 min read

Favorites beware.

College football's Week 4 slate holds a warning label for several contenders flirting with danger as conference play arrives and schedules intensify across the Power Four.

The SEC owns the spotlight with a record-setting four games featuring AP Top 25 teams, an unprecedented showcase that will reshape the early playoff conversation before Saturday night. 

Several ranked teams face uncomfortable road environments and tricky matchups -- the familiar recipe for September chaos. This is the point in the season when preseason expectations begin to crack and weaknesses become impossible to hide. 

Here are six teams, including a couple outside of the national rankings, we're keeping an eye on for an upset alert this weekend.

Teams on upset alert in Week 4

No. 1 Texas

Opponent: at No. 14 Tennessee (+5.5)

There's immense pressure on Arch Manning every week, but the Longhorns quarterback heads into a hostile environment for the first time in 2026. Peyton Manning's nephew has never been to Knoxville, he says, and could be in for a rude awakening if the Vols score first and pressure this Texas offense. 

Josh Heupel is 11-14 against top-25 teams with the Vols, but 5-6 overall against such at home -- with the wins coming against against Florida, Alabama and Kentucky in 2022, Texas A&M in 2023 and Alabama in 2024. Few have mentioned Tennessee as a threat in the SEC, but that changes if freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon has a coming out party this weekend and outshines Manning to beat Texas.

No. 15 Utah

Opponent: at Iowa State (+7.5)

Guess who's a late conversion against Iowa on the road away from being unbeaten and potentially ranked this season? First-year coach Jimmy Rogers has already instilled belief in the Cyclones, half the battle when you're a program in transition. 

Utah's average margin of victory is 39.3 points per game thanks to an offense approaching program highs. Quarterback Devon Dampier hasn't been pressured yet and the key for Iowa State is to make him nervous in his first road start of his senior season.

No. 16 Louisville

Opponent: vs. Wake Forest (+12.5)

This Week 4 ACC tilt is particularly challenging for Jeff Brohm, who must get his team's attention coming off the highs of last week's victory over SMU. 

The Mustangs were the last top-25 opponent on the schedule for the Cardinals, whose CFP. hopes have spiked with their two toughest games now behind them. Wake Forest held the line against Miami and kept things competition with the Hurricanes, so it's not out of the question that the Demon Deacons do the same against a team not as explosive across the board as the ACC's clear frontrunner.

No. 18 Michigan

Opponent: vs. No. 17 Iowa (+5.5)

Who is the most overrated top-20 team right now? It might be the Wolverines, who nearly lost to Western Michigan in the opener, scored 17 points during a win over Oklahoma and overcame a shaky start to thump UTEP after a 28-point third quarter over the weekend. 

Nothing is going to come easy for Bryce Underwood and this up-and-down offense against the Hawkeyes, who have two shutouts and have given up a single offensive touchdown. Hank Brown is doing just enough in the passing game to keep defenses honest, and this one's likely a race to 14 points.

NC State

Opponent: vs. Appalachian State (+14.5)

How much life do the Wolfpack have left after last week's abysmal finish at Vanderbilt? In one of the most improbable endings in a game in the last decade, NC State quarterback CJ Bailey fumbled in the end zone with one second left, leading to a go-ahead defensive touchdown by the Commodores. All he had to do was go to the ground to potentially seal the victory. 

Given NC State's struggles in the opener a few weeks ago at Virginia and now this debacle, the team has sprung what appears to be an unpatchable leak under Dave Doeren. And now, there's a risk he loses the locker room after the highest-paid player on the team's boneheaded error. The unbeaten Mountaineers make the short trek to Raleigh following wins over Maine, ECU and Charlotte.

UCLA

Opponent: at Maryland (+2.5)

The dreaded cross-country travel game for the Bruins, who face a Maryland team backed into a corner after a loss to Virginia Tech. If there's ever been a must-win for Mike Locksley to extend his tenure in College Park, this is it. 

A loss further proves that, even with a talented roster, the ship is sinking under his regime. With trips to Nebraska and Ohio State looming for Maryland, this is where the Terrapins must thrive as a home underdog against an opponent that just gave up 425 yards passing last week against Purdue.