Isaias Poses Risk to US Energy Output at Category 2 Strength

The first Atlantic hurricane of the season is forecast to reach the US Gulf Coast Friday, threatening damaging winds, flooding and potential disruptions to energy production after an otherwise quiet storm season for the region.

Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to grow into a strong Category 2 hurricane in the coming days, with top winds of 110 miles per hour, the US National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. New York time advisory. The current forecast takes the storm well east of major oil platforms and natural gas pipelines off the coast of Louisiana and Texas. 

That track is partly based on guidance from newer, AI-enabled storm models. But more conventional models, typically based on physics equations, have shown the system tacking toward eastern Louisiana, said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. That trajectory would put the storm closer to energy assets near New Orleans.

“There’s a little bit of wiggle room,” McNoldy said. 

Risk modeler Chuck Watson of Enki Research said in a blog post Wednesday morning that effects from Isaias could extend eastward to Pensacola, Florida, and Eglin Air Force base in the western Florida panhandle before the storm collapses. If that comes to pass, Watson said potential damages and economic impacts could exceed $6 billion.

The storm is poised to undergo rapid intensification in the next day or so as it runs through near-record-warm water and moist air. Though the storm could weaken again before landfall, NHC forecaster Eric Blake wrote Wednesday that it will likely grow in size — putting more communities in the path of damaging winds and rains.

Isaias arrives at a precarious time for oil markets. Amid strain from the war in Iran, there’s little cushion for disruptions to diesel production, the workhorse fuel used by trucks, trains, industry and for heating. A shift westward could bring more offshore production and Gulf Coast energy infrastructure into the storm’s path.

As of late Wednesday morning, hurricane watches and storm surge alerts had been posted from Mississippi to Florida. As much as 7 feet of water could push inland on top of high tide, the center said.

Chevron Corp. is evacuating non-essential personnel from its Gulf platforms as a precaution. No changes to production or operations are expected at this time, the company said. 

As of Tuesday, roughly 9.24% of Gulf oil production and 3.36% of natural gas production had been shut in ahead of the storm, according to data published by the federal Marine Minerals Administration.

Forecasters have warned that the risk of damaging winds is rising along the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and Mississippi. Heavy rains are expected to extend for miles, bringing a threat of urban flooding and isolated river flooding in the US Southeast. 

Isaias was situated 540 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River Wednesday morning. By Thursday, it’s expected to grow into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season — a milestone normally reached in the second week of August.

This Atlantic season has lagged well behind the usual pace, with eight named storms, none of which became hurricanes. By early October, an average season typically has produced about 11 named storms, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Strengthening El Niño conditions have increased wind shear that helped suppress activity across the basin. Shear occurs when winds change speed or direction at different altitudes, disrupting a storm’s structure.

With assistance from Brian K. Sullivan, Lucia Kassai, Joe Wertz and Mary Hui.

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