Morning Mail: Pauline Hanson’s right-hand man, warnings Moscow may target Nato, and the end of card surcharges

Good morning. Episode two of The Populist, out today, tracks the rise and influence of Pauline Hanson’s right-hand man: James Ashby.

Overseas, there are warnings from intelligence chiefs that Russia may soon test the resolve of the Nato military alliance. Meanwhile, China is taking a dim view of US warnings over the breakneck speed of AI development.

Australia

• Explainer | Debit and credit card surcharges will be eliminated from 1 October, as part of Reserve Bank reforms that will do away with extra checkout fees on Visa, Mastercard, and Eftpos payments.

• Exclusive | One Nation’s national director, James Ashby, is enjoying generous benefits as a result of his role working for One Nation, with documents showing that a company linked to the party built a $56,000 shed on his central Queensland property.

• The road ahead | Australian households will shrink but more people can expect to live well into their 90s, according to the Treasury’s latest intergenerational report looking ahead 40 years into the future.

• Valley Heights stabbings | A child has died in a stabbing attack in the Blue Mountains, with two other children and a woman being treated in hospital in a critical condition, NSW police say.

• Outfoxed? | Most people can identify wombats and kangaroos as Australian animals, but one in six people surveyed in Queensland, NSW and Victoria think red foxes are native wildlife.

World

• Russia-Ukraine war | Baltic spy chiefs warn Moscow is preparing for more decisive action in Europe; Ukraine has targeted Moscow and the surrounding region in a large-scale attack involving hundreds of drones on the final day of Russia’s parliamentary elections.

• Analysis | China is pushing back against US warnings over rapid AI development, as Beijing views calls for a slowdown as a mechanism to lock in advantages enjoyed by American tech companies.

• Middle East crisis | Nations across the Middle East are bracing for an escalation of violence after Iran claimed it had received intelligence that the US was preparing for a renewed bombing campaign.

• ‘Profound upheaval’ | Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has vowed to stay in office despite his party’s heavy losses in two state elections, one to the far right and the other to a leftwing party.

• Back on stage | Amid continued calls for a fan boycott, Ed Sheeran says the situation in Gaza is “catastrophic and unjustifiable” in his first show since his tour plunged into turmoil.

• Triumphal arch | Donald Trump claims the triumphal arch he is planning for Washington DC will serve as a “top grade military complex” replete with drone and ammunition storage space.

Podcast

The Populist: The favourite son | Episode 2

Most Australians know the story of Pauline Hanson: the fish and chip shop, the maiden speech, the “please explain”. But Hanson’s top adviser, James Ashby, wields as much – if not more – power over One Nation as Hanson herself. When the party bars media from press conferences, it’s Ashby who makes the call. To understand how One Nation operates, it’s important to understand Ashby’s story, from his beginnings as a PR flack, through a massive political scandal, to his ascent to power as One Nation’s popularity soars.

In-depth

The frustrations of American voters are many and varied: grifters, liars, the two-party system, money influencing elections, the US’s standing in the world, growing national debt and a fixation on cultural issues, not just the larger problems plaguing the country. Voters rage is reshaping US politics – and the looming midterms are starting to be framed not as right versus left but instead the “well-fed versus the fed-up”.

Not the news

It’s been a huge couple of years for Way Dynamic, the Melbourne multi-instrumentalist whose real name is Dylan Young. His 2025 album Massive Shoe is about to be re-released internationally after he signed with the indie giant Jagjaguwar. With subtle yet lush layers, gentle vocals and pensive lyricism, Way Dynamic’s thoughtful, sunny folk is both contemporary and timeless – and it’s not hard to understand his success.

Sport

• AFL | Was Hawthorn v Brisbane the best game of Australian rules football ever played, Jonathan Horn asks.

• Cricket | Australia deny Zimbabwe a consolation ODI win after Nathan Ellis pulls off last-over heist in Harare; Brendon McCullum hails Harry Brook’s captaincy as England move top of T20 world rankings.

• Football | Alexander Isak pounces to give Liverpool victory on Iraola’s return to Bournemouth; Antoine Semenyo helps chaotic Manchester City beat Sunderland 5-3 despite Brian Brobbey hat-trick; Matheus Cunha strikes late to deny Fulham and salvage point for Manchester United.

• Tennis | Alex de Minaur finds top gear to seal Australia’s Davis Cup progression over Poland.

• Rugby union | Wallaroos give up big lead as France make miracle comeback in match delayed by burning bus.

A survey has revealed that Australians are waiting years for dementia diagnoses with early warning signs sometimes overlooked by health professionals, ABC News reports. Disposable vapes, toys, singing birthday cards and rechargeable tools are among the devices causing thousands of fires in waste and recycling centres across Australia, the Sydney Morning Herald reports.

What’s happening today

• Politics | Treasurer Jim Chalmers is set to release the latest intergenerational report this morning.

• SA | A coronial inquest is scheduled in Adelaide into the death of a woman who was approved for NDIS support but did not receive care.

• ACT | A public hearing is scheduled in the inquiry into defence amendment (sexual assault prevention, intervention and response commission) bill.

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Brain teaser

And finally, here are the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.