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Monday, October 12, 2026

U.S. economic surprise index flips negative as inflation lingers

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A streak of missed economic forecasts has pushed the Bloomberg U.S. Economic Surprise Index into negative territory, heightening fears that price inflation is exhausting consumer spending.

Recent economic data releases have increasingly fallen short of analyst expectations over the past few weeks, including the September jobs report and August consumer credit report.

The economic surprise gauge dropped into negative territory at -0.034 as of Monday, down from its year-to-date peak of 0.446 reached in May, Lisa Abramowicz, co-host of Bloomberg Surveillance, pointed out in a social media post.

"This is edifying concerns that consumers will soon run out of steam to keep spending as much as prices keep rising," Abramowicz wrote.

Lisa Abramowicz

Lisa Abramowicz

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