Gold Prices Rise Day After Diwali, JP Morgan Predicts 46% Jump By 2026-End. Should You Buy?

Gold, Silver Prices Today: Gold prices staged a sharp recovery after Diwali, bringing the precious yellow metal back into focus for investors and households planning their next purchase. The rally comes after a period of heightened volatility, with international bullion recovering above $4,100 an ounce and domestic prices climbing on Monday (November 9).

The rebound has also revived the debate over whether gold's long-term rally has more room to run. JP Morgan expects prices to climb towards $6,000 an ounce by the end of 2026 -- a 46.34 per cent rise from the current market price. A stronger US labour market and uncertainty over interest rates could keep the metal volatile in the near term, as per JP Morgan. 

Gold Price Today: How Much Does Gold Cost After Diwali?

Gold prices jumped on Monday (November 9) following a recovery in international bullion markets.

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On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold was trading at Rs 1,43,750 per 10 grams, up 0.84 per cent. Silver climbed 1.62 per cent to Rs 1,88,102 per kilogram.

Internationally, spot gold rose 1.6 per cent to $4,129.69 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery gained 1.6 per cent to $4,139 per ounce. Silver also advanced, moving above $53 per ounce.

Retail gold prices also moved higher. According to rates reported on November 9, 24-carat gold in Mumbai was priced at Rs 1,44,600 per 10 grams, while 22-carat gold stood at Rs 1,32,550. In Delhi, 24-carat gold was priced at Rs 1,44,750 and 22-carat gold at Rs 1,32,700 per 10 grams.

The difference between futures, bullion benchmarks and jewellery prices is important. Retail rates vary across cities and jewellers. Making charges, GST and other applicable costs can further increase the final purchase price.

Gold Price Movement After Diwali: What Happened Over The Last Few Days?

Gold prices have witnessed sharp swings in the days surrounding Diwali.

Why Are Gold Prices Rising After Diwali?

1. Lower crude oil prices ease inflation concerns: Oil prices softened after US President Donald Trump indicated that further attacks on Iran were unlikely as diplomatic efforts continued. Lower crude prices can ease inflationary pressures and reduce concerns that central banks will need to keep interest rates elevated for longer. This can support gold, which does not offer an interest income.

2. A weaker dollar supports international gold: A weaker US dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. This can support demand in international markets and help bullion prices recover.

3. Central bank buying continues to support gold: Central banks have been an important source of demand for gold over recent years. China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 24 consecutive months, taking its reported holdings to 78.3 million ounces. Such purchases can provide structural support to prices, even when investor sentiment turns cautious.

4. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a factor: Gold continues to attract investors looking for protection against geopolitical risks, inflation and uncertainty around global economic policies. However, the metal's performance is not determined by safe-haven demand alone. Interest rates, the dollar and investment flows can influence prices just as strongly.

Gold Price Outlook: What Should Investors Do After Diwali?

The sharp recovery after Diwali may tempt investors to rush into gold. But experts generally recommend looking at the metal as a portfolio diversifier rather than an instrument for quick profits.

"Gold and silver are extending their recovery, with silver outperforming gold as bargain buying returns following the sharp October correction... In India, lower international prices during the recent correction have also encouraged physical gold purchases ahead of the festive season," Gaurav Garg, Head - Research, Lemonn, told NDTV.

For investors considering fresh purchases, a staggered approach can help reduce the risk of entering the market at an unfavourable price. Those buying jewellery should also distinguish between investment returns and consumption expenses, including making charges.

Gold ETFs and other regulated market instruments may offer a more convenient way to gain exposure to bullion without paying jewellery-making charges. Physical gold, meanwhile, continues to serve cultural, gifting and household purposes.