Alabama vs. Florida State prediction, odds, time: Week 3 college football picks by proven model
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The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its best bets for the matchup between the FSU Seminoles and Alabama Crimson Tide
• 2 min read
No. 10 Alabama gets a rematch with Florida State on Saturday after last year's 31-17 loss in Tallahassee. The Seminoles fell 27-24 to SMU last week. The Tide rallied from a halftime deficit to beat Kentucky 45-17. Kalen DeBoer has settled on Keelon Russell at quarterback after two comfortable wins. Alabama's defense ranks among the nation's stingiest (185.5 yards allowed per game). Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 bonus after $10 in trades:
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala. The Crimson Tide are 19.5-point favorites in the latest Florida State vs. Alabama odds. The over/under for total points is 49.5, down three points from the opener. Before making any Florida State vs. Alabama picks, check out the FSU vs. Alabama predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It is on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks on betting sites since the 2024 season, and it has been upgraded for the 2026 season to better factor in the transfer portal. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Florida State vs. Alabama. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Alabama vs. FSU:
Florida State vs. Alabama spread | Alabama -19.5 |
Florida State vs. Alabama over/under | 49.5 points |
Florida State vs. Alabama money line | Alabama -1449, Florida State +853 |
Florida State vs. Alabama picks | |
Florida State vs. Alabama streaming | Fubo (Try for free) |
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Top Florida State vs. Alabama predictions
After simulating Florida State vs. Alabama 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over (49.5 points) at betting apps. It's possible Florida State saw some flaws in Alabama after the Crimson Tide trailed Kentucky at halftime in Week 2. The Tide reboudned niceely for a 45-17 blowout win, but perhaps there's an opening for success.
The Seminoles have been tested, falling 27-24 to SMU as a 3-point underdog. Both of FSU's games so far have finished Under the total, but by a combined 3.5 points. Alabama games have both finished Over.
The simulations average out to Russell throwing for 249 yards and two TDs, while FSU QB Ashton Daniels goes for 219 yards and 1.3 TDs, with Duce Robinson catching 6.7 passes for 86 yards. The model projects 50 combined points as the Over clears in 53% of the simulations. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.
How to make Florida State vs. Alabama picks
In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Florida State vs. Alabama and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks, and find out.
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