Can Gadi Eisenkot turn the ‘disaster bloc’ into Israel’s next government?

On Sunday, Israeli President Isaac Herzog announced he would grant Gadi Eisenkot – main challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – the opportunity to form a new government in Israel.

It followed almost a fortnight of political gridlock, after what has been called the “most consequential election in Israel’s history” failed to produce a clear winner.

Eisenkot now has 28 days (with a possible 14-day extension) to attempt to convene a stable coalition government. He’ll have to bring together a deeply divided opposition.

Even if he succeeds, his government will face major challenges – including keeping his coalition together, a changing relationship with the United States, and escalating violence in the West Bank.

Read more: Israel election by the numbers: who might form the next government?

An extraordinary election

In Israeli elections, it is standard practice for the president to formally nominate who should bring a coalition government together. This does not have to be the leader of the party that has secured the most votes – in this case, Netanyahu.

Israel’s voting system is intrinsically geared toward producing coalition governments. The country has never had a one-party government.

Netanyahu’s Likud party won the highest number of seats in Israel’s election on October 27. But his coalition lacked the 61 seats required for a majority in Israel’s 120-seat parliament.

The parties in opposition to Netanyahu – led by Eisenkot – also lacked the numbers to form a governing coalition.

Meanwhile, the two Arab-majority parties representing the interests of two million citizens of Israel (the Joint List and Ra’am) received 19 seats between them – more than ever before.

While the procedure that has given Eisenkot a chance to become Israel’s new prime minister is standard practice, the conditions in which this election has taken place are historically fraught.

This is the first time Israelis have gone to the polls since Hamas’ shocking attack of October 7 2023, and the devastating war in Gaza that followed.

Many challenging questions are raised by the fact that, at this momentous time in the history of the Jewish nation-state, the electoral process has ended inconclusively.

A new Israeli government, dependent on Arab parties?

The election outcome was made much more complicated by the tension between numbers and politics.

To form a potential governing coalition, Eisenkot’s Yashar party could be joined by Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad, Yair Golan’s Democrats and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu. But to achieve a majority in parliament, they would need at least one the two Arab parties to join a historically broad unity government.

Doing so, however, would require Eisenkot – and Bennett and Liberman – to go against campaign promises that they would not enter into coalition with the Arab parties.

This leaves Eisenkot in a difficult position. The support of these two Arab parties could help break the political deadlock. But it could also make what is already an improbable coalition of Israeli parties fall apart before it even starts governing.

The need for political cooperation and unity in Israel today is perhaps greater than ever before. Eisenkot has emphasised that “all of us will need to compromise”.

But compromising in principle needs to be possible in practice. A multi-party government that relies formally or informally on two different Arab parties may not be a feasible basis for political renewal in Israel.

Observing the political dilemma facing their opponents, members of Netanyahu’s Likud party have referred to them as “the disaster bloc”.

Coalition conundrums

There is no question that the enlarged parliamentary presence of the two Arab parties is significant. It poses fundamental questions about the nature of Israel’s democracy.

Israel’s 2018 Nation-State Law states that “the right of national self-determination in the state of Israel is unique to the Jewish people”. This makes it difficult for Arab parties to represent the national self-determination interests of Palestinians while also supporting an Israeli government.

Such cooperation has been tried in the past, and failed. In 2021, history was made when the Ra’am party joined a coalition government under Bennett, giving him a narrow majority. The experiment lasted 12 months, ending in the collapse of the unlikely coalition government.

Ra'am has now announced it will support an Eisenkot coalition government. But that is no guarantee the experiment would last any longer this time.

Even without the Arab parties, Eisenkot may struggle to hold a coalition together.

Formerly chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, he was seen as a down-to-earth antithesis of Netanyahu. Yet, he has limited political experience. He only entered politics in 2022, and his party, Yashar, was established only last year.

Less than six months ago, Eisenkot dismissed the idea of opposition parties joining forces, specifically criticising the opposition leader Yair Lapid.

But perhaps the most vexed question of coalition-building is how Jewish ultra-orthodox parties – mainly Shas and United Torah Judaism – will choose to align.

These groups strongly oppose compulsory military service for ultra-orthodox Jews, an issue that has caused deep divisions in Israel and given them a powerful role in Netanyahu’s current coalition government.

How they choose to align, and what demands they make, will now powerfully shape Eisenkot’s prospects.

Big challenges at home and abroad

The challenges facing Israel’s new government are formidable. The situation in Gaza is unresolved, Hamas remains armed, and war has now spread from the Gulf to Saudi Arabia.

Close to home, the ongoing violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank will pose another serious challenge to whatever government emerges.

And with the US midterm elections giving the Democrats control of both chambers of Congress for the remainder of US President Donald Trump’s term, US foreign policy could become more unpredictable.

Whatever shape the new government of Israel takes, its internal coherence will need to be sustained in a period of great uncertainty, from Washington to the West Bank.

In recent days, Eisenkot has emphasised that having received this opportunity to lead, he will do his utmost to be “worthy.” In order to sustain leadership and government – and avoid being at the head of a “disaster bloc” – he will also need to be effective.