US midterm election results prediction: What betting market, exit polls reveal — Democrats have ‘100% chance of winning’

Democrats are ahead of Republicans in the race to win a majority in the US Senate and the House of Representatives -- the upper and lower chambers of the US Congress.

Early US midterm election results trend showed Democratic candidates won the Senate race in Georgia, Virginia and New Hampshire as polls closed in several states early Wednesday (IST).

Democrats flipped a Senate seat in North Carolina, while the Republican candidate clinched victory in Florida. A razor-thin race is expected in Iowa.

Quick answers to key questions

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QUESTIONS

As of 7:50 am IST, Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 100% chance of winning control of both chambers. The article notes that the races remained closely contested.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate and three seats to take control of the House. A House majority requires 218 seats.

Exit polls cited in the article favour Democrats to capture the House. The Senate contest appears closer, with both parties locked in state-by-state races.

Kalshi traders identified Texas, Michigan, Maine, South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas as races likely to influence Senate control. The Cook Political Report had classified six Senate races as toss-ups.

Polymarket bettors gave Democrats a 75% chance of taking the Senate and a 95% chance of winning the House. Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 100% chance of winning control of both chambers.

In the 100-member Senate, the majority is 51 seats, while in the House of Representatives, the half-way mark stands at 218.

Margins are tight in both chambers of the US Congress (House and Senate); one or two seats could tip the balance, the Associated Press reported.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the Senate to win the majority as they hope to recapture majorities in Congress and break Republicans’ unified hold on power in Washington. In the House, Democrats need three.

Democrats who once saw the political map as an almost impossible lift now are now hopeful that a Senate majority is within reach, even though their path runs through several more conservative states.

What do prediction markets say?

With the final votes now being cast and 35 Senate seats on the ballot on November 3, 2026, Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 100% chance of winning control of the US Senate, as of 7:50 am (IST).

Kalshi bettors believed the races most likely to decide control are Texas, Michigan, Maine, South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas.

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In the House, Kalshi predicted, "Kalshi traders give Democrats a 100% chance of winning control of the House. Control will come down to 360 competitive districts.

The prediction platform reported that over $1.6 billion worth of bets on the Midterms have been placed with it this year.

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Meanwhile, Polymarket, another online prediction platform, also offered little hope for the Republicans. Earlier on Tuesday, its bettors said that the Democrats have a 75 percent chance of taking the Senate while Republicans have a 26 percent chance of retaining it, according to the Independent.

In a separate market, bettors at Polymarket believed that the Democratic Party has a 95 percent chance of winning the House of Representatives. The Republican Party’s chance of holding the House stands at just 6 percent on election day.

Here's what's predicted:

Several exit polls showed that Democrats are favoured to capture the House of Representatives, while both parties are locked in a closely contested, state-by-state battle for the Senate.

Half of voters nationwide said they saw the 2026 midterm elections as an opportunity to rebuke the president, and three-quarters said they are "angry" or "dissatisfied" with the way the country is headed, according to exit polls conducted by SSRS on behalf of a consortium of US media outlets including major television networks and the Associated Press.

Meanwhile, the Guardian cited the Cook Report, which, before elections, classified six Senate races as genuine "toss-ups". The Democrats need to win at least three of these, alongside the other races they are expected to win, it stated.

The report further added that Democrats are favoured in enough House seats to take the chamber without winning any of the 18 seats the Cook Political Report classes as “toss-ups”. If they win every seat they are expected to win, they will comfortably win a majority.

The balance of power now turns on whether Democrats hold the 18 seats rated “lean Democratic”. Republicans, favoured in 195 seats, would need to sweep all 18 toss-ups and flip five Democratic-leaning seats to win.

How are House of Representatives, US Senator elected?

The lower chamber, the House of Representatives, has 435 voting seats, each representing a district of roughly similar size. There are elections for each of these seats every two years.

All 435 House seats are on the ballot on November 3, 2026. A party needs 218 seats for a majority.

The upper chamber, the Senate, has 100 members, who sit for six-year terms. One-third of the seats come up for election in each two-year cycle. Each state has two senators, regardless of its population. A party winning at least 51 seats in the US Senate controls the chamber.

About the Author

Akriti Anand is a Deputy Chief Content Producer at LiveMint. She is a digital journalist with more than six years in the news industry.<br><br> In her current role, she covers both national and international politics, and also keeps a close watch on the latest trends in science and space exploration. <br><br> Akriti joined the LiveMint team in October 2023. Before this, she built a strong career at other major media houses. She worked as a senior sub-editor at India Today. Later, she moved to CNBCTV-18. There, she covered high-pressure topics like breaking news and major elections. She spent much of her time analysing Parliament bills and complex political debates. She is also a skilled editor who knows how to polish a story for a digital audience. <br><br> One of her career highlights happened at CNBCTV-18. She made her first television debut during the Chandrayaan-3 mission. She also provided special on-air coverage for the Karnataka Elections. <br><br> When she is not busy with breaking news, Akriti loves to write explainers and interview experts on a wide range of issues. She also enjoys making complex space missions easy for everyone to understand. <br><br> Her education helps her tackle these diverse subjects. She holds a BA in English Literature, a Postgraduate Diploma in Mass Communication, and a Master’s degree in Development Studies. She is currently expanding her knowledge in climate journalism.<br><br> Connect with Akriti here<br> LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/akriti-anand-868285199">https://www.linkedin.com/in/akriti-anand-868285199</a><br> Twitter/X: <a href="https://x.com/AkritiAnand7">https://x.com/AkritiAnand7</a><br> Email: akriti.anand@htdigital.in