Amanah’s GE16 seat plan hints at PH-Bersatu alliance

Amanah’s plan to contest 32 parliamentary seats in the 16th general election (GE16) hints at Pakatan Harapan (PH) making room for an alliance with former component Bersatu, says a political analyst.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Azmil Tayeb said Amanah contested 54 federal seats in the 2022 nationwide polls (GE15), when Bersatu was no longer part of PH and the coalition vied for 220 of the 222 parliamentary seats.

In comparison, Amanah only contested 34 seats in the 2018 general election (GE14), when Bersatu was a PH component and was allocated 53 seats to run in.

“It does seem like PH is making room for Bersatu by asking Amanah to give up some of the seats it plans to contest,” Azmil told FMT.

“It makes sense because Amanah is currently PH’s main vehicle in Malay-majority seats, the same ones contested by Bersatu.”

However, Azmil said Bersatu would not fare much better than Amanah in the face of an Umno-PAS alliance in GE16, citing the Muhyiddin Yassin-led party’s wipeout in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state polls.

The Asia Group vice-president Asrul Sani said Amanah’s seat target would invite speculation on a federal PH alliance with Bersatu, but also reflected its weak electoral reach in the Malay heartlands.

Asrul said Amanah appeared to be focusing on a smaller number of constituencies where it believed it could compete, adding, however, that its performance in recent elections left much to be desired.

Amanah won 11 parliamentary seats in the 2018 polls, a number which dwindled to eight in GE15.

It managed to win one seat in the Johor election in July, but lost the race in all nine of the constituencies it contested in the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan polls. Similarly, it failed to win a single seat in Sabah, which held its state election in November last year.

GE16 wipeout a possibility for Amanah

Asrul said Amanah could face a wipeout in GE16 if Umno and PAS confirmed an alliance for the polls, citing the party’s poor performance in recent state elections.

He said the PAS splinter, which brands itself as a progressive Islamic party, had failed to bring in rural Malay votes for PH, and that even holding federal power had not helped its cause.

He said the consolidation of Malay votes by an Umno-PAS alliance would make it hard for Amanah to cling to its existing parliamentary seats – even Kota Raja, held by party president Mohamad Sabu, where Malay voters make up 40% of the electorate.

“A wipeout is a real possibility for Amanah. A general election has different dynamics, so a wipeout is not certain, but the party cannot dismiss the risk.

“Its recent performance raises a deeper question about whether it can attract enough Malay voters to remain electorally relevant in PH.”

Azmil agreed that Amanah was unlikely to offer much competition in Malay-majority parliamentary seats. He, too, cited the party’s record in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls, saying PH itself had a high trust deficit among the Malays.

“I don’t see the trend changing in favor of Amanah any time soon. Besides the trust deficit, Amanah cannot compete with Umno and PAS when it comes to grassroots machinery and party loyalty.”

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