SIR protests to Congress-CJP bonhomie to UP polls: Why BJP has its task cut out

While noting that the youth unrest is not merely directed against Gyanesh Kumar or the SIR, several BJP leaders admit that the protests gaining traction reflect a wider resentment rooted in concerns over various issues such as inflation, unemployment and rural distress, which have been fuelled by various domestic and international factors, including volatility in the markets and global economic challenges.

What is apparently worrying the BJP is that the discontent is drawing public attention and giving the Opposition a “strategic advantage”, party sources said.

The BJP’s recent electoral successes, such as in the Gujarat local body polls, have been eclipsed by these protests which have got national limelight and drawn public attention, party insiders said.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and other Opposition leaders at Barakhamba Road as they lead a march towards Supreme Court in New Delhi on Monday. (Express Photo by Praveen Khanna)

The Opposition’s strident campaign and narratives on social media may not have changed the “ground realities” in a significant way or dented Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, but it could “sow doubts” in the minds of common citizens about the efficacy and integrity of the election system and lead to their questioning of the dispensation, a senior BJP leader said.

Opposition’s unity

The Opposition INDIA bloc has got a shot in the arm by the Congress’s increasing emphasis on unity among their ranks, with Leader of Opposition (LoP) Rahul Gandhi even expressing his solidarity with the CJP leaders.

On Wednesday, Rahul targeted the Modi government after CJP leaders Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka were sent to judicial custody, saying in an X post: “Waving the Tricolour at Jantar Mantar in a peaceful protest is not a crime. Jailing youth for it is an act of cowardice.” CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke immediately responded by thanking him for “speaking out against the illegal arrest” of his colleagues.

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Several Opposition leaders camping in Delhi said their protests have been a “success”, even as they underlined that they have to work hard consistently to translate it into an electoral advantage.

During a protest march by Opposition leaders on Barakhamba Road, New Delhi, Monday. (Express photo by Abhinav Saha)

BJP’s challenges

While the BJP leaders dismissed the protests as a “social media phenomenon for cheap popularity”, they admitted that it reflects “frustrations over multiple issues over which the party or the government have no control”.

“There are, of course, grudges against the government, but they are not over SIR exercise – we have seen it in Bihar where the voters did not take the vote chori campaign seriously despite an intense campaign by Rahul Gandhi. The youth is worried over the unemployment situation, especially in the context of global situation; the middle class is nervous over the volatile markets and fears that their investments may not yield any profits. Then there is the price rise problem. And the rural sector has also many issues,” said a senior BJP MP.

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“For the time being, it is good for us, because the Opposition is not talking about any of these issues but harping on SIR. With the festival season on, the protests would also lose their steam as the public attention will shift,” he said, but agreed that the Winter Session of Parliament, expected to begin by the third week of November, could be another opportunity for the Opposition to rake up all these issues.

The BJP could however launch a campaign in the coming days to clear people’s doubts about the SIR exercise, said a top party leader.

The current political atmosphere, marked by the growing Opposition unity, has already affected the government’s reform agenda, including its attempts to pass the constitutional amendment Bill to advance reservation for women to 2029 – along with a delimitation Bill for expansion of the Lok Sabha from 543 MPs up to 850 – which was defeated in the Lok Sabha in the April special session.

Two other crucial Bills – the 130th Constitution Amendment Bill, which proposes the automatic removal of ministers if they are arrested or detained for more than 30 days for serious offences, and the Viksit Bharat Shiksha Adhishthan (VBSA) Bill, 2025, that seeks to restructure higher education regulation in the country — have also been pending as the Joint Committees of Parliament examining them have been unable to finalise their reports due to differences among the parties.

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“When the Monsoon Session began (on July 20), the Opposition parties were in multiple camps. But its different now. Their current camaraderie is not good news for our legislative agenda,” said a BJP insider.

With the resignation of Union minister L Murugan from both the government and the Rajya Sabha, which set off fresh speculation about an impending Cabinet reshuffle, a section of the BJP leaders say that infusing freshness into the ministry could ease the pressure on the party and the government in the perception battle in the run-up to the Assembly elections slated for February 2027.