Yes, El Niño is real, here’s how SAWS is explaining the recent storms

South Africa has seen a genuinely intense stretch of severe thunderstorms, excessive lightning and fire danger warnings over the past month.

It’s left many people online asking the same question:

is this El Niño, or just normal spring weather?

SAWS has confirmed the country is already experiencing a very strong El Niño event.

The weather service, though, has been explicit that individual storms shouldn’t be attributed to El Niño directly.

“Individual weather events should be assessed using daily forecasts and impact-based warnings rather than attributed to El Niño alone,” SAWS said.

WHY THIS ISN’T A SIMPLE “YES, THAT STORM WAS EL NIÑO” ANSWER

Here’s the nuance that matters. 

University of Pretoria professor Willem Landman has confirmed South Africa is already experiencing an El Niño event. 

SAWS itself has separately described the 2026/27 event as “developing into an exceptional event in its timing and magnitude.”

It has also said “all signals” indicate we are in a very strong El Niño.

The weather service, though, has specifically cautioned against interpreting the strength of El Niño as a direct measure of how severe its local effects will be.

“The magnitude of the El Niño should not be interpreted as a direct indication of the magnitude or spatial distribution of impacts over southern Africa,” the weather service said.

In plain terms: El Niño being real and strong doesn’t mean every single thunderstorm this month is its direct handiwork.

WHAT EL NIÑO ACTUALLY TENDS TO CAUSE HERE

Most El Niño events bring below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to Southern Africa.

This doesn’t necessarily mean more thunderstorms in the short term. 

SAWS’s own seasonal forecast for October to December 2026 points to exactly this pattern.

Drier and hotter conditions are expected across most of the country.

A similar November 2026 to January 2027 outlook is expected to follow.

Crucially, though, SAWS has pointed out that not every El Niño event behaves identically.

The 1982/83 and 2015/16 events both brought widespread drought to Southern Africa.

The very strong 1997/98 event, however, was actually associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of the country’s summer rainfall region.

“Although below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome in southern Africa this summer, not every single El Niño event is associated with drought,” SAWS said.

WHY THE THUNDERSTORMS AND FIRE WARNINGS ARE STILL HAPPENING

Gauteng, for instance, can absolutely still receive rainfall and severe thunderstorms during an El Niño summer.

This is according to climate reporting from Gauteng.net. 

El Niño typically reaches its greatest intensity toward the end of the year.

This means its clearest local effects, the drought risk, the heatwaves, haven’t fully arrived yet. 

SAWS disaster risk reduction senior manager Rudzani Malala has said the focus right now should be on planning rather than panic.

WHAT’S ACTUALLY STILL TO COME

The scale of what’s being forecast is genuinely significant.

The United Nations has warned this event is “supersizing before our eyes.”

It has the potential to become the strongest El Niño on record in at least 1,000 years.

Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in the east-central tropical Pacific are already exceeding 3°C above normal.

That’s well past the threshold that defines a “very strong” event.

SAWS has said the combination of this El Niño and ongoing global warming will likely make 2027 the warmest year ever recorded.

Forecasters expect the event to peak in late 2026 or early 2027.

This means the version of El Niño South Africa is experiencing right now is genuinely just the beginning.

It’s completely understandable that people feel skeptical when a weather pattern gets blamed for everything happening in the sky right now.

The honest answer sits somewhere in the middle. 

El Niño is real, it’s already here, and it’s expected to intensify.

The specific storms battering the country this month, though, are best explained by normal seasonal weather, with El Niño’s clearer, harsher effects still largely ahead of us.

Have you noticed any changes in your own local weather patterns this spring?