Yiaga validates INEC results, raises vote-buying concerns

Yiaga Africa has said the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission for the 2026 Osun State governorship election were consistent with its independent statistical estimates.

The civil society organisation, however, raised concerns over alleged vote buying, voter inducement and some gaps in the use of electoral technology.

It disclosed this in its process and results verification statement on the Osun State August 15 governorship election, presented in Osogbo on Sunday.

The chairperson of the Osun Election Observation Mission of Yiaga Africa, Dr Asmau Maikudi, read the statement on Sunday.

Yiaga Africa said its verification was based on reports from 289 of 300 sampled polling units, representing 96 per cent of its sample across the state.

It deployed 300 observers, 32 mobile observers across the 30 local government areas, and observers to all 30 local government results collation centres.

According to the organisation, its process and results verification for transparency methodology estimated that the Accord would secure between 50.3 per cent and 54 per cent of the votes, the African Democratic Congress between 1.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent, and the All Progressives Congress between 43 per cent and 46.8 per cent.

The figures compared with INEC’s official results of 51.9 per cent for Accord, 1.7 per cent for ADC and 45.2 per cent for APC.

Yiaga Africa said the official results fell within its estimated ranges, indicating that the figures announced by INEC were consistent with the ballots counted at polling units.

It, however, stressed that the finding related specifically to the accuracy of the tabulation of polling-unit results and did not address other concerns surrounding the conduct of the election.

“However, widespread reports of vote buying and voter inducement raise serious concerns about the integrity of voter choice,” the organisation said.

It explained that if the results had been significantly altered at ward, local government or state collation centres, INEC’s figures would have fallen outside its estimated ranges.

The organisation also estimated voter turnout at between 42.5 per cent and 44.8 per cent, compared with INEC’s official figure of 43 per cent.

On election logistics, Yiaga Africa said INEC performed better than expected despite the disruption caused by the court-ordered inclusion of the Social Democratic Party shortly before the election.

It said the development forced the commission to reprint ballot papers and result sheets days before the poll.

The organisation reported that accreditation and voting had commenced in 41 per cent of sampled polling units by 8:30 am and increased to 96 per cent by 9:30 am.

It said the improvement represented a positive development in election-day logistics.

On the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, Yiaga Africa said the technology functioned properly in 80 per cent of the polling units observed.

It said the BVAS malfunctioned in 20 per cent of polling units but was subsequently fixed.

The organisation added that the widespread technological failures feared after challenges encountered during the mock accreditation exercise did not occur on a scale capable of undermining the election.

However, it reported cases in which the BVAS failed to verify the biometric and facial details of elderly voters.

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Yiaga Africa also highlighted the use of downloadable Permanent Voter Cards, following the introduction of the provision under the Electoral Act 2026.

It said observers reported that voters presented downloadable copies of their PVCs for accreditation in 23 per cent of polling units where they were deployed.

While most voters who presented the downloadable PVCs were accredited, observers reported that some voters were denied accreditation in seven per cent of polling units.

The organisation said it also received a verified report from one sampled polling unit where all voters who presented downloadable PVCs were reportedly denied accreditation.

It further reported that in 11 per cent of polling units, some voters whose PVCs had been successfully verified were denied accreditation because the BVAS could not authenticate their fingerprints or facial biometrics.

Yiaga Africa said its observers also found that the secrecy of voting was compromised in some locations.

According to the report, observers could see how a voter’s ballot paper was marked when it was put into the ballot box at some point during the day in 12 per cent of polling units.

It added that voters crowded polling officials in seven per cent of the polling units observed.

On the electronic transmission of results, Yiaga Africa said the INEC Result Viewing Portal had regained its importance in strengthening transparency in the electoral process.

It said the electronic transmission and publication of polling-unit results provided an additional safeguard against manipulation and allowed citizens to scrutinise the results.

The organisation, however, expressed concern over a prolonged interruption in the uploading of results to IReV.

It said uploads stalled at 3,292 polling-unit results between 8:48 pm and 10 pm, leaving 471 results outstanding before transmission resumed at about 11:50 pm.

Yiaga Africa called on INEC to explain the interruption, saying public confidence in IReV depended on timely and complete uploads as well as proactive disclosure whenever delays occurred.

The organisation also commended voters for remaining at polling units to observe sorting, counting and announcement of results and for following results to ward and local government collation centres.

It said the vigilance of voters remained an important deterrent to manipulation, although citizens should not be expected to “stand guard” over the integrity of electoral institutions.

On security, Yiaga Africa said security personnel generally demonstrated restraint during the election despite the violence, inflammatory rhetoric and concerns over neutrality that characterised the campaign period.

It said the conduct of security personnel showed that strong security deployment did not necessarily have to result in excessive interference in the electoral process.

The organisation, however, urged the security agencies to sustain the standard in future elections, stressing that security neutrality should be consistent regardless of the political party controlling a state or the Federal Government.

Yiaga Africa described the Osun election as an important test of the Electoral Act 2026 and the new regulatory framework for election administration and results management ahead of the 2027 general elections.

It said while INEC and security agencies largely passed the test of election-day preparedness and conduct, concerns around vote buying, voter inducement, technological failures and delays in uploading results required further attention.