Former NASA chief sounds alarm on China's lunar "exploration" plans

“When you realize there are only limited parking spots that get us access to that training environment, it creates an urgency, and we must [go fast] because the Chinese are going to the exact same locations,” Isaacman said. “They are partnered with the Russians. They are going to put a nuclear reactor there, and they could potentially deny this training environment that is a necessity for America’s space ambitions.”

NASA must go to stay

Under Isaacman, NASA is eyeing a 2028 launch date for the Artemis IV mission to land humans on the Moon. Critics have suggested that the agency is motivated primarily by politics due to the influence of the Trump administration, which will exit the White House at the end of 2028. The reality, however, appears to be that Isaacman does not want to cede any more time in this race and is thus pushing for as many cargo and crew missions as possible to the Moon as soon as possible.

At the outset of the Biden administration in January 2021, NASA was still targeting a 2024 lunar landing, even though this was widely seen as unreasonable. Over the next four years, the target date for a landing slipped almost year for year. If the date slips significantly further, China will land humans on the Moon before NASA can return there.

Being first, and being there for the long haul, matters, Nelson says. And he tells his readers to not be fooled by talk of exploration, especially when it comes to China’s space program. This is a competition for the high ground of the 21st century.

“What looks like exploration on the surface is, in truth, also a raging struggle for space supremacy,” he writes. “This race will determine who sets the rules for a new era of human expansion beyond Earth. For Beijing, this race is not about exploration but about domination, securing the infrastructure of orbit in much the same way empires once seized trade routes and aggressively defended sea lanes.”

Should the United States lose this competition, Nelson writes, “we’ll watch the next frontier slip from our grasp.”