Southwest monsoon seen to strengthen again in third week of August

WEATHER SYSTEMS. Satellite image of the two low pressure areas outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility as of August 16, 2026, 3 pm.

PAGASA

Four provinces in Northern Luzon and one in Central Luzon are seeing moderate to heavy rain from Sunday afternoon, August 16, to Monday afternoon, August 17

AT A GLANCE

• The southwest monsoon is expected to strengthen again in the third week of August.
• PAGASA has identified several provinces likely to experience significant rainfall.

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MANILA, Philippines – While the southwest monsoon or habagat eased during the weekend, it could strengthen again in the third week of August, the weather bureau warned the public on Sunday afternoon, August 16.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing at around 5 pm on Sunday that the southwest monsoon will still affect Luzon and the Visayas, especially areas on the western side, in the coming days.

PAGASA’s latest rainfall outlook shows these provinces may be most affected over the next 72 hours:

Sunday afternoon, August 16, to Monday afternoon, August 17

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales

Monday afternoon, August 17, to Tuesday afternoon, August 18

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Antique

Tuesday afternoon, August 18, to Wednesday afternoon, August 19

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Antique

For Sunday evening, aside from the provinces mentioned above, Metro Manila, the Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Norte, Batanes, Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Occidental Mindoro are also seeing scattered rain and thunderstorms due to the southwest monsoon.

The Visayas and the rest of Luzon may just have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms on Sunday evening, still because of the southwest monsoon.

In areas with significant rainfall, floods and landslides remain likely.

PAGASA is also monitoring two low pressure areas (LPAs) outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

The first LPA, which formed last Thursday, August 13, was located 2,395 kilometers east northeast of extreme Northern Luzon as of 3 pm on Sunday.

It initially had a high chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this likelihood gradually decreased. It is currently unlikely to become a tropical depression in the next 24 hours.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Grace Castañeda-Carpio also said the first LPA is moving away from PAR.

Meanwhile, the second LPA formed just on Sunday. It was last spotted 1,385 kilometers east of Central Luzon at 3 pm, and could enter PAR in the evening, according to Carpio.

So far, the second LPA has a low chance of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours. Beyond that period, the likelihood of tropical cyclone development may increase.

Carpio also said another LPA or potential tropical cyclone may form west of Northern Luzon in the coming days.

These weather disturbances could eventually pull or enhance the southwest monsoon.

PAGASA expects up to four tropical cyclones to develop within or enter PAR in August. There have already been two during the month — Tropical Depression Luis and Tropical Storm Maymay (Kujira).

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported on Sunday morning that the death toll from the southwest monsoon, Luis, and Maymay combined stands at 23. Seventeen others were injured, while one remains missing.

The bad weather in August has affected at least 4.87 million people or 1.4 million families across 10 regions, based on NDRRMC data.

So far, the estimated cost of damage to infrastructure is already at P3.4 billion, while the estimated cost of damage to agriculture has risen to over P689 million. – Rappler.com