South Alabama vs. Arkansas State prediction, odds: Week 6 college football Thursday picks from proven model
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SportsLine's model revealed its best bets for the Thursday matchup featuring the South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
• 2 min read
South Alabama looks to extend its winning streak when the Jaguars travel to Jonesboro for a Sun Belt showdown Thursday night. The Jaguars are coming off a dominant 52-35 blowout of Louisiana Monroe last week, while Arkansas State is coming off a 23-20 defeat to Louisiana. South Alabama (3-2) is 0-2 away from home this season. The Red Wolves (2-3) are 1-1 at Centennial Bank Stadium in 2026, and the series between the two programs is a Sun Belt rivalry the home side desperately needs to protect. Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Ark. The Red Wolves are 1.5-point favorites in the latest South Alabama vs. Arkansas State odds, while the over/under is 59.5 points. Before making any Arkansas State vs. South Alabama picks, check out the South Alabama vs. Arkansas State predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State odds
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State spread | Arkansas State -1.5 |
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State over/under | 59.5 points |
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State money line | Arkansas State -117, South Alabama +100 |
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State picks | |
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State streaming | Fubo (Try for free) |
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Top Arkansas State vs. South Alabama predictions
After simulating South Alabama vs. Arkansas State 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Under 59.5 points at betting apps. Arkansas State's defense has held opponents under in three of its last five games at home. The model projects a defensive-minded Thursday night that keeps the total well within range.
Senior quarterback Bishop Davenport has been steady for South Alabama in 2026, leading the Jaguars to a lopsided 52-35 victory over Louisiana Monroe. Arkansas State's Trey Owens has faced a steep learning curve in 2026, throwing four interceptions in the Red Wolves' season-opening loss to Memphis and working to find consistency as a developing signal-caller who will need a clean game to keep up with the South Alabama offense on Thursday night.
SportsLine's model is projecting 54 combined points in this one, making the Under the value 57% of the time. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.
How to make South Alabama vs. Arkansas State picks
In addition to going Under on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Arkansas State vs. South Alabama, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 40-35 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.
Why you should trust SportsLine's model
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It entered Week 6 on a profitable 40-35 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns.
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