Netflix Q3 earnings in focus as shares hover near 52-week lows

Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the market closes on Tuesday, with investors expected to focus on whether expanding advertising revenue and new content releases can help sustain growth.

Analysts expect Netflix to post earnings of $0.82 per share on revenue of about $12.88 billion, up 11.86% from the prior year. The company has projected third-quarter revenue of roughly $12.89B, representing about 12% growth from a year earlier, while narrowing its full-year revenue outlook to $51.0B-$51.4B, from prior guidance of $50.7B-$51.7B, which represents 13%-14% growth (~12% F/X neutral), driven by growth in memberships and pricing, and a projected rough doubling of ads revenue to approximately $3B.

Investors will assess whether the company’s underlying growth is strengthening or is being driven primarily by pricing and other monetization initiatives, with membership growth remaining the key metric to watch.

Among the key news during the quarter, streaming giant Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria is leaving the streaming company after a 10-year tenure, with former Disney executive Peter Rice confirmed as her replacement. The leadership change comes a day after Netflix announced plans to lay off about 1,000 employees, or roughly 6% of its workforce, marking its largest round of job cuts to date and surpassing the approximately 450 positions eliminated in 2022 following its first quarterly subscriber decline in more than a decade.

Analyst views

SA analyst Summit Research said Netflix’s recent selloff has made its valuation more attractive despite near-term growth headwinds. While investors are increasingly concerned about weakening traditional engagement metrics, such as viewing hours, the analyst believes the market may be underestimating the company’s ability to generate greater value from its expanding audience. Expected monetization improvements and an evolving content strategy could provide further upside. Summit Research maintains a Buy rating on Netflix with a price target of $104, implying approximately 43% upside from the October 15 closing price of $72.61.

SA Analyst Justin Purohit states that ahead of the release, shares are not far off their 52-week lows, having declined over 40% in the past year. With the current earnings multiple of about 19x more than 40% below historical averages, I see opportunity for upside in the stock.

Jefferies initiated coverage on Netflix Inc. (NFLX) with a Buy rating and set a price target of $85.00. With the stock currently trading at $70.57, this represents potential upside of over 20%. The firm shifted lead coverage of Netflix to analyst John Colantuoni while maintaining its Buy rating. Jefferies projects monetization upside, scale-driven margin expansion, and share repurchases will combine to deliver more than 14% earnings per share growth over the next 10 years. The firm estimates revenue per member will grow by 6% on average over the next three years, contributing more than half of the projected 11% annual revenue growth from 2026 to 2029.

BMO Capital lowered its price target on Netflix stock to $125 from $135 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Analyst Brian Pitz cited investor pessimism ahead of the company’s third-quarter 2026 results, with concerns centered on slowing growth in the U.S. and Canada region and continued engagement weakness.

Stock performance and ratings

The media company has come under pressure, hitting a 52-week low of $65.08 amid a slight Q2 revenue miss, cautious Q3 guidance and concerns over reduced disclosure of viewing data. Intensifying competition from YouTube and TikTok, coupled with a lack of breakout content hits in the first half of 2026, has further weighed on investor sentiment.

Netflix shares have been hovering near their 52-week low of $65.08 for some time, having declined more than 40% over the past year.

SA Analysts and Wall Street have Buy ratings on the media company, with quant scores of 3.82 and 4.13, respectively, while the Quant rating is Hold, with a score of 3.10.

Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 10 upward revisions and 22 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 34 downward.

Over the last 2 years, NFLX has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time.