Kenya Met Department Maintains El Niño Forecast Despite Prolonged Dry Spell

The Kenya Meteorological Department has reiterated its forecast for above-average rainfall across the country during the October–December 2026 season, assuring the public that the current hot and dry conditions do not signal a change in the seasonal outlook.

Despite delayed onsets in several regions, meteorologists maintain that enhanced rainfall—associated with the El Niño phenomenon—remains expected across more than 40 counties, with wet conditions likely extending into early 2027 in some areas.

The government previously estimated a 99 percent probability of above-normal rainfall for the short rains season, with heavy downpours projected to persist through January and February 2027. Weather authorities emphasized, however, that the timing, distribution, and intensity of the rains will vary by region rather than occurring simultaneously nationwide.

According to the seasonal outlook, rainfall was expected to begin in western Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin—including Kisumu, Kakamega, and Busia—before spreading across the country, with wet conditions persisting into January 2027.

In Nairobi and the central highlands (Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Meru, Embu, and Tharaka-Nithi), the onset was projected between the second and third weeks of October, extending into January. Southeastern counties (Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, and Kajiado), the coastal strip (Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu), and northeastern regions (Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo) were similarly forecasted to receive rains through October, with coastal and northeastern seasons concluding by December.

Meteorologists clarified that the current dry spell is due to complex interaction between global sea surface temperatures and regional atmospheric systems like the Indian Ocean Dipole. The department cautioned that El Niño strength alone does not dictate localized rainfall timing and advised against misinterpreting isolated showers as the formal start of the rainy season.

While the anticipated rains are set to boost agricultural production, replenish water reservoirs, and improve pasture for pastoralists, authorities have warned of significant risks, including flash flooding, landslides, infrastructure damage, and waterlogged farmlands.

In response, the Ministry of Health has issued advisories to all 47 counties to prepare for potential waterborne disease outbreaks—such as cholera and typhoid—and vector-borne illnesses linked to floodwaters. Residents in flood-prone areas have been urged to remain vigilant, avoid crossing flooded roads or rivers, and monitor regular updates from county weather offices.