2026 WNBA MVP ballot: Why A'ja Wilson deserves record fifth trophy over Olivia Miles, Caitlin Clark

In recent years, we've been treated to some incredible WNBA MVP races. The three-way duel in 2023 between Breanna Stewart, Alyssa Thomas and A'ja Wilson, which saw Stewart win despite not getting the most first-place votes, may never be topped. And just last season, we saw Wilson pull off a remarkable late turnaround to overtake Napheesa Collier and go back-to-back. 

The 2026 race has not provided that level of drama. Wilson, who is attempting to win a fifth MVP and become the first player in league history to threepeat, has been the favorite since the preseason and has not faced the usual level of competition from her closest peers over the last three to five seasons. 

Collier, who finished second in each of the last two seasons, underwent surgery on both ankles in the offseason and didn't return until late July. She has only played 15 games, and while the WNBA does not have a games played threshold to qualify for major awards like the NBA, Collier has not played anywhere near enough to be in consideration. 

What's at stake on final day of WNBA's regular season? Seeding, draft lottery odds, more

Jack Maloney

Thomas, who has finished third, fifth, second and fourth, respectively, in the last four seasons, didn't even make the All-Star Game this season. While she's still filling up the stat sheet and may lead the league in assists for the second consecutive season, she hasn't delivered her usual impact and the Phoenix Mercury have long been eliminated from the playoffs. In fact, the Mercury are the first team since 2008 (also the Mercury) to miss the playoffs in the season immediately following a Finals appearance. 

Stewart, for her part, has been terrific in a bounce-back season after injuries kept her out of the MVP discussion last season, ending a streak of five consecutive top-three finishes. But Stewart's New York Liberty, who were the preseason title favorites, have disappointed and sit in eighth place. That's not Stewart's fault, but there has only been one instance in WNBA history -- Lauren Jackson in 2007, when Seattle Storm had the seventh-best record -- when a player won MVP while their team had worse than the fifth-best record. That won't change this season. Stewart will make numerous ballots, but she's not going to win MVP. 

So who has pushed Wilson this season? And has anyone done enough to dethrone her? 

I am once again honored to be an official awards voter. Ahead of Friday's deadline, here is an explanation of my full five-player ballot, which doubles as my selections for All-WNBA First Team, in reverse order. 

5. Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty

Ironically, the fifth and final spot was the most difficult to determine, although the sheer number of worthy candidates is a great sign for the league's health. Ultimately, after extensive hemming and hawing, Stewart got the nod over Jackie Young and Paige Bueckers, both of whom are worthy candidates and locks to be on my All-WNBA Second Team. 

Fully healthy after a frustrating 2025 that started with surgery on her meniscus and ended with an MCL sprain, Stewart has been back to her best. Her 20.8 points are her most since her MVP season in 2023, and in typical fashion, she's made a major impact in all departments by adding 8.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks. 

Seasons with 500+ points, 250+ rebounds, 100+ assists, 50+ steals, 50+ blocks

Stewart is eighth in the league in scoring, 10th in rebounding and eighth in blocks. The only other player in the top 10 in all three categories is Wilson. In addition, Stewart is fourth in the league in stocks (steals plus blocks) at 2.7, behind Emily Engstler, Rhyne Howard and Wilson. 

The Liberty finished in eighth place after another frustrating season, but Stewart bears no responsibility for their disappointing 26-18 record. She spent the entire summer carrying the team on her back, and her two-way impact cannot be denied. 

4. Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana Fever

Mitchell finished fifth in MVP voting last season after what had been, to that point, the best season of her career. She's been even better in 2026. It takes a truly special season to be this high on the MVP ballot when almost all of your value is derived from scoring, but that's what Mitchell has delivered. Her 1,076 points are the most by a player in a single season in league history. 

At a career-high 25 points per game on 51.4/45.2/85 shooting splits, with an astounding 64.6 true shooting percentage, Mitchell has produced the greatest scoring season ever by a guard -- better even than Diana Taurasi's vaunted 2006 campaign. Here's how the two compare:

Mitchell is only second in the league in scoring this season due to Wilson's own historic campaign, but her 25 points per game would be the fourth-highest single-season average ever, and she would join Wilson and Taurasi as the only players to ever reach that mark. She is also on pace to record the most efficient 20-point scoring season in league history, with her 64.6% true shooting besting the previous mark of 64.3% by Liz Cambage in 2018. 

In addition to leading the league in 3-point percentage, Mitchell has also smashed the league's all-time 20-point streak, which was previously held by Wilson. Entering Thursday's finale against the Minnesota Lynx, Mitchell has scored at least 20 points in 27 consecutive games. 

How Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell is putting together one of the greatest scoring seasons in WNBA history

Jack Maloney

3. Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever

Clark and Mitchell are inextricably linked as the driving forces of the best offense in WNBA history. The Fever's 115.8 offensive rating is more than three points per 100 possessions better than any other team this season, and nearly three points better than any other team ever. 

Best offenses in WNBA history

Mitchell scores more, and more efficiently, than Clark -- though not to an extreme degree -- and has better on-off splits. The Fever have a plus-9.8 net rating with Mitchell on the floor and a plus-5.4 net rating with Clark on the floor. And if you want to build a case to swap the order of these two, you would start there. 

However, the splits are much closer since Clark returned from her back injury in mid-July -- plus-12.9 net rating with Mitchell on, plus-11 net rating with Clark on -- and no two Fever teammates have spent more time on the court together. Clark and Mitchell have played 979 minutes together, the 17th-most of any two-player combination in the league this season. Trying to parse significant meaning from the few minutes per game they play without the other seems foolish. 

But if they truly are a unit, why does Clark get the nod for third place on the ballot? That's simple: we've never seen someone combine scoring and playmaking to this degree. 

At 22.8 points and 8.5 assists per game, Clark is third in scoring and second in assists, with a chance to take the assist title from Alyssa Thomas on the final day of the season. If she does, she'll become the first player ever to lead the league in assists and finish in the top three in scoring. Regardless of what happens on Thursday, Clark will join Diana Taurasi (2013) and Becky Hammon (2009) as the only players to finish in the top three in both scoring and assists. And neither Taurasi nor Hammon was producing as much offense as Clark. 

Between her own points and assists, Clark is producing a league-leading 42 points per game. She had the first 40-point, 10-assist game in league history this season, and has more 30-point, 10-assist games this season (five) than every other player in WNBA history combined (four). Her 13 20-point, 10-assist games this season are more than second place on the list, Courtney Vandersloot (10), had in her career. 

To tie things up, we'll circle back around to the Clark vs. Mitchell debate. Clark has assisted on 97 of Mitchell's 228 assisted field goals (42.5%) and 378 total made field goals (25.7%). Mitchell has assisted on 10 of Clark's 88 assisted field goals (11.4%) and 281 total field goals (3.6%). 

2. Olivia Miles, Minnesota Lynx

During the offseason, the Lynx lost six rotation players from a team that went 34-10, and star forward Napheesa Collier underwent surgery on both ankles, which ultimately kept her out until late July. No one expected the Lynx to be in the lottery or anything, but no one expected them to earn the No. 1 seed again. 

And they would not have without Miles, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 WNBA Draft, who has put together one of the best rookie seasons ever. Look no further than Tuesday's loss to Clark and the Fever, when Miles looked on from the sideline with a calf injury while the Lynx fell behind by so many points that Cheryl Reeve pulled the starters at halftime. 

Miles is one of the most talented passers to ever enter the league, so it's no surprise that she has immediately established herself as a top playmaker. Even those most bullish on her as a prospect never expected her to score this much and this efficiently, however, at least not right away. 

Lynx guard Olivia Miles breaks Caitlin Clark's WNBA rookie scoring record, continuing historic campaign

Jack Maloney

Much like Clark, Miles' ability to meld her scoring and playmaking threat is unique. She averaged 19.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, six assists and 1.3 steals on 49.2/38.8/87 shooting splits and a 60.6 true shooting percentage. She leads all rookies in scoring and assists, and is eighth and seventh in the league in those categories, respectively. Along with Clark, Bueckers and Young, she is one of four players in the top 10 in both scoring and assists. 

On Sunday, in what wound up being her final game before she was shut down for the season with this nagging calf issue, Miles surpassed Clark for the most points in a season by a rookie (790). She's also set the rookie record for 3s in a game (8) and 20-point games (22). Along the way, she's won every Rookie of the Month honor and should be the unanimous Rookie of the Year. 

Highest rookie scoring seasons in WNBA history

Miles' emergence keeping the Lynx atop the standings during Collier's long-term absence has, in many respects, been the story of the season. She leads the team in scoring and assists, and Minnesota has a plus-11.1 net rating with Miles on the floor. The gap at the top of the standings isn't significant as usual, but Miles has been the best player on the No. 1 seed, and that counts for a lot. 

1. A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces

What is there to say at this point about Wilson? She remains the best player in the world, and after yet another historic season, should become the first five-time MVP in WNBA history and the first WNBA player to win three consecutive MVP awards. In the NBA, for what it's worth, only Bill Russell (five), Michael Jordan (five) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (six) have won five or more MVP awards, and only Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird have gone back-to-back-to-back. 

In her fourth game of the season, Wilson put up 45 points in a win over the Connecticut Sun to become the first player in league history with multiple 45-point games, and the first player with five 40-point games. She hasn't stopped scoring since. 

At 26 points per game, she's on pace to record the second-highest single-season scoring average ever (behind only herself in 2024) and join Cynthia Cooper (1997-99) and Diana Taurasi (2008-11) as the only players to win three consecutive scoring titles. Along the way, she's broken her coach Becky Hammon's franchise scoring record, become the fastest player to 6,000 career points and become the first player with multiple 1,000-point seasons. 

Despite having the highest usage rate in the league (32.4%), Wilson has been remarkably efficient. She's shooting 52.5% from the field, 40.7% from 3-point range and 86.3% from the free throw line. A dozen missed free throws are all that separates her from the vaunted 50/40/90 club, and she has a 62.5 true shooting percentage that's 6.4% above the league average. 

A three-time Defensive Player of the Year, Wilson has long been a game wrecker on that side of the ball. She hasn't quite been at her usual level this season, in part due to a nagging back issue and a lack of frontcourt depth. But even an A- or B+ from Wilson is better than most. Her two blocks per game lead the league, and she's also chipping in 1.4 steals; her 3.4 stocks (steals plus blocks) lead the league. 

What's more, Wilson leads the league in win shares (9.1), RAPM (+6.2), VPM (+8) and PER (32.3). Say what you want about the catch-all advanced metrics, but when one player is dominating all of them, that's a pretty telling sign. 

We'll leave the last word here to Dawn Staley, Wilson's former coach at South Carolina, who spoke to CBS Sports' Isabel Gonzalez earlier this week.

"You can argue with a wall," Staley said. "A'ja Wilson is the MVP."