Israel elections 2026: Can Netanyahu lose polls but cling to power? How coalition arithmetic could decide Bibi's fate

Israel heads to a crucial general election on October 27, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a formidable challenge from an opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

While Netanyahu's political future hangs in the balance, the election may not be decided by the popular vote alone.

Israel's coalition-based parliamentary system means even a party that finishes behind its rivals could remain in a position to form the government.

Quick answers to key questions

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QUESTIONS

Yes. Israel’s prime minister is determined through coalition-building, not simply by which party wins the most seats. Netanyahu could stay in power if Likud and its allies can secure enough support to form a governing coalition.

A coalition generally needs at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats to command a majority. Parties may negotiate with potential partners after the election to reach that number.

Small parties can determine whether either bloc reaches the 61-seat majority needed to govern. A party must win at least 3.25% of the valid vote—roughly four seats—to enter the Knesset.

The parties may continue negotiating, and another candidate could be given a chance to form a government. If no leader secures enough support, the country could hold another election while the existing cabinet remains as a caretaker government.

Possibly, but winning the most seats would not automatically make Eisenkot prime minister. The opposition would need to agree on a coalition and secure enough Knesset support to govern.

The outcome could shape Israel's approach to the war in Gaza and wider regional conflicts, its relations with the United States and Europe, and the country's domestic political trajectory.

For India, the stakes extend to defence cooperation, trade, energy security and New Delhi's broader diplomatic interests in West Asia.

As Israelis voted on Tuesday, Netanyahu's party is locked in a close contest with Eisenkot's opposition alliance.

First election since October 7 attacks

This is Israel's first nationwide election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, which killed 1,195 people and saw 251 others taken hostage in Gaza.

The assault triggered a prolonged military campaign and years of conflict across multiple fronts.

The attacks exposed major intelligence and security failures, prompting widespread criticism of Netanyahu and his government's preparedness.

Many of his opponents accuse him of repeatedly evading responsibility for the failures that preceded the assault and the security establishment's response.

The events of October 7 and their aftermath have left deep grief, insecurity and political divisions across Israeli society.

Can Netanyahu lose the vote but remain in power?

Israel's electoral system makes the final outcome more complicated than a straightforward contest between the two leading political camps. Voters elect parties to the 120-member Knesset, or parliament, through proportional representation. No single party has traditionally secured enough seats to govern alone, making coalition negotiations central to the formation of every government.

The key question is whether Netanyahu's Likud party and its potential right-wing and religious allies can collectively command a majority of at least 61 seats. Even if Likud finishes behind its principal rival in terms of seats, Netanyahu could still have a path to power if his allies secure enough seats to form a governing coalition.

Conversely, an opposition party or alliance that wins the largest number of seats may still struggle to form a government if its partners cannot agree on a common programme or reach the required majority.

3.25% threshold could decide outcome

The fate of smaller parties could prove as consequential as the performance of the two main political camps. Under Israel's electoral system, a party must secure at least 3.25% of the valid vote to enter the Knesset, a threshold that translates into roughly four seats.

Several smaller parties hovering near the cutoff could determine which bloc emerges with the stronger parliamentary position.

Analysts expect the outcome to depend not only on voters switching sides but also on which parties manage to enter parliament and how many seats they win.

Netanyahu's political survival is also at stake

Netanyahu, widely known as Bibi, has dominated Israeli politics for decades, serving as prime minister for nearly 19 years across different periods in office.

Security has long been central to his political appeal, and he has repeatedly survived electoral setbacks and political crises.

But the fallout from October 7 has presented one of the most serious challenges of his career.

Critics argue that his leadership has become inseparable from the failures preceding the attacks and the prolonged conflict that followed.

His supporters continue to view him as an experienced leader capable of navigating Israel through a volatile regional environment.

If the opposition wins more seats but cannot unite around a viable coalition, Netanyahu could yet retain power.

If his traditional allies lose ground or fail to secure enough seats collectively, even his long experience in Israeli politics may not be enough to save his government.

For Israel, the election could determine the country's direction after October 7. For Netanyahu, it could decide whether he remains at the centre of national politics or finally loses his grip on power.

About the Author

Bhanu Pratap is a journalist who reports and writes on foreign affairs, India’s foreign policy, geopolitics and strategic affairs. He closely follows diplomatic developments in New Delhi and has a keen interest in defence and national security.<br> <br> Bhanu also focuses on in-depth, interview-based reports and regularly speaking with experts and policymakers to bring perspectives and context to major developments around the world.<br> <br> He is also interested in stories with strong humanitarian angles.<br><br> One such report examined the cases of Indian nationals who were allegedly recruited and forced into Russia’s war against Ukraine. While reporting the story, Bhanu spoke to the families of those affected and documented their experiences. The report was later taken into account by the United Nations in its findings on human rights violations linked to the war in Ukraine.<br> <br> For Bhanu, the zeal to produce meaningful and impactful journalism remains at the heart of his work.<br> <br>He has previously worked with Firstpost, NDTV, Newslaundry and Republic.<br><br> Bhanu studied at the Delhi School of Journalism, University of Delhi. He initially chose science with plans to pursue engineering, influenced by conventional expectations, but fate had other plans and eventually led him to journalism.<br><br> Beyond the newsroom, Bhanu enjoys exploring culture and history and often spends his days off on heritage walks. He is also passionate about travelling, biking and listening to folk music.<br> <br>For tips, reviews and suggestions, you can reach him at bhanu.pratap@htdigital.in.