Most important NFL Week 8 games for playoff picture: Steelers-Browns AFC North battle looms large
Assessing the biggest games of the week using SportsLine projections
• 4 min read
With the season nearing the halfway point, the playoff picture is slowly becoming clearer. According to SportsLine projections, there are already nine teams with a less than 10% chance to make the postseason. Maybe a couple of those teams have the chance to turn things around, but for now, that leaves 23 teams with somewhat realistic playoff hopes.
That also means that when two of those 23 teams meet, there are massive implications on the line. Add in in-division and in-conference games, and the stakes get even higher. We can no longer say "it's early." This middle chunk of the season is equivalent to Saturday — aka "Moving Day" — in a golf tournament. Teams can't guarantee a playoff berth yet, but they can sure play their way into (or out of) contention.
Using SportsLine projections, these are the five most important games in Week 8 based on how they'll impact the playoff race.
1. Falcons at Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: fubo, try for free)
Current playoff odds | 39% | 34% |
With win | 55% | 46% |
With loss | 26% | 19% |
The NFC South got a lot more interesting in Week 7 with the Falcons beating the previously undefeated 49ers and the Buccaneers demolishing the Panthers. Though Carolina still leads the division at 3-3, SportsLine currently sees Atlanta and Tampa Bay as the top two favorites, and Sunday's results certainly played a big role in that.
This is a particularly big game for the Buccaneers. At 2-5, they're running out of losses they can afford. A win, though, would not only give them the early head-to-head advantage over Atlanta but also get them to 2-0 in the division.
2. Browns at Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS, streaming on Paramount+
Current playoff odds | 36% | 70% |
With win | 57% | 77% |
With loss | 27% | 50% |
In-division matchup? Check. Two of the league's most pleasant surprises? Check. Massive opportunity for both teams? Check.
The Browns and the Steelers are both 5-2 this season, tied atop the AFC North, with Cleveland holding the tiebreaker after a head-to-head win earlier this year. This has the chance to be a massive statement for the Browns, plain and simple. Despite the Browns' impressive record, SportsLine is bearish on their playoff chances. Cleveland's biggest win this season is by four points. But a second win over the Steelers, a 6-2 record and a 3-0 division record? The Browns would clearly be in a great spot.
The Steelers can be in an even better spot with a win. They'd be 6-2 with a 2-1 record in the division and would wipe out the Browns' current head-to-head advantage. Oh, and did we mention the Browns haven't won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh since 2003? The Steelers would love to keep it that way.
3. Bears at Seahawks
Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (Stream: fubo, try for free)
Current playoff odds | 56% | 84% |
With win | 75% | 91% |
With loss | 48% | 69% |
SportsLine already has Seattle in a great spot, even though the Seahawks are only 4-3 and wouldn't be in the playoffs if they started today. A win would put them in an even better spot. The Bears, meanwhile, are in an absolute gauntlet in the NFC North, where every team has a winning record. This looks like a team that will be in the playoff mix all the way until the end of the year, no matter what, which is why a loss wouldn't be too harmful. Beating the reigning champs on the road to get to 6-2, though, would be a huge boost.
4. Panthers at Packers
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video
Panthers | ||
Current playoff odds | 26% | 55% |
With win | 38% | 61% |
With loss | 21% | 38% |
This is a big chance for the Panthers, not just to bounce back from a brutal outing last week, but to maintain their lead in the NFC South and actually surpass Green Bay in the NFC standings. Yes, it's hard to see the NFC South producing multiple playoff teams, but with a win, the Panthers would move to 4-3 and send the Packers to 4-4.
Green Bay, meanwhile, is in a similar position to the aforementioned Chicago: It's in a tough division and just needs to keep stacking wins no matter who it's against. A loss would be far more harmful than a win would be helpful; playoff hopefuls have to take care of business as home favorites on a short week.
5. Ravens at Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS, streaming on Paramount+
Current playoff odds | 44% | 96% |
With win | 57% | 98% |
With loss | 35% | 92% |
It's not quite now-or-never for the Ravens, but at 4-3 and with consecutive AFC North losses over the past two weeks, it's starting to get into that territory. The AFC is pretty loaded, and Baltimore is not only at the bottom of its division but ninth in the conference.
Lamar Jackson's absence has hurt a lot, but at some point, it's no longer an excuse and simply a fact of the last few seasons' disappointments. If he's going to miss a significant stretch — as he has four of the past six seasons — Baltimore's margin for error gets paper-thin in a hurry. Of course, Baltimore could get right back on track with him returning and leading a win Sunday. All would be well. Another loss, though, and that margin for error gets even smaller with a little more than half the season to go.
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