How the Houthis are also putting Egypt under pressure

Any and all ships may pass, at least at first. That was how the spokesperson for Yemen's Houthis rebel militia put it. Transit through the Red Sea would be safe, with one exception: According to the Houthi spokesperson, ships from Saudi Arabia would not be allowed to pass this stretch of the sea.

The comments came during a time when the Houthi militia has been fighting to increase its presence at the southern entrance to the ocean passage. The Houthis now control the tiny volcanic island of Mayun, also known as Perim, at the entrance to the Red Sea, as well as other parts of the Yemeni coast and some small islands.

With these moves, pressure is growing on Saudi Arabia, the country that opposes the Houthis and previously fought a war (unsuccessfully) with them.

Red Sea strains rattle energy markets

But pressure is now also increasing in Egypt. Every decrease in shipping traffic through the Red Sea also impacts one of that country's most important sources of national income, the Suez Canal.

As yet, maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has not been significantly reduced. According to news agency Reuters, last Saturday 24 ships passed through it and on Sunday, 27 did so. That is around the same as the 10-day average. The Houthis appear to want to signal that their plan is not stop traffic altogether. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a chokepoint between Yemen and and the Horn of Africa. Ships have to pass it to enter the Red Sea.

In general though, maritime traffic has decreased here, according to maritime intelligence organization Kpler. On Monday, 21 ships went through the strait. But in the middle of July, the average number of ships passing through was 47.

How will things develop from here?

"The Houthis could actually interrupt, or at least significantly disturb, the connection between Asia and Europe," says Stephan Roll, a senior fellow with the Africa and Middle East division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, or SWP, in Berlin. "So first we have to wait and see how big the actual disruption to the Suez Canal will be."

Even complete control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait doesn't automatically mean control of the Suez Canal. But it does give the Houthis a further opportunity to indirectly threaten traffic.

For Egypt, this new disruption comes at a particularly unwelcome time. Houthi attacks at the end of 2023 had already disrupted business at the Suez Canal. According to the International Monetary Fund, earnings at the canal in 2024 fell by around $6 billion (€5.2 billion). Before the current security crisis, Egypt had been making between $9 billion and $10 billion from the Suez Canal annually.

More recently things had actually been improving again.

"The situation is certainly problematic compared to 2023," Roll told DW. "But it is not so clearly negative compared to the situation one, two or even three months ago."

Thanks to rising oil prices and the resulting higher cost of circumnavigating Africa, shipping companies had been using the Red Sea as they travelled between Asia and Europe.

The Suez Canal's finances had recently improved. The Suez Canal Authority, which manages the passage, reported that during the 2025-2026 fiscal year, revenues had risen by 23% to $4.67 billion (€4.5 billion). Despite the various conflicts in the region, this actually represented a  recovery for the Suez Canal.

Houthi offensive could change all that

There is also a second critical factor. After recent drone attacks that the Saudis blamed on Iraqi groups, Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline to the coastal city of Yanbu will be out of service for at least several weeks. Between 4 million and 5 million barrels of oil were going through the 1,200 kilometer pipeline per day as the Saudis attempted to circumnavigate the Strait of Hormuz, blocked due to the US-Iran war. This latest damage could put as much as 4% of global supply at risk, according to Reuters.

An analysis by Qatar-based think tank, the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, warns of a scenario where the Persian Gulf and Red Sea are both likely to become more precarious. The East Asia Institute, a think tank based in Korea, has also written about the dangers of dual choke points.

Neither route can be seen as an independent alternative because flows of oil and trade depend on secure connections at several points.

Certainly for Egypt, this will increase economic pressure.

What can Egypt do about this?

In geopolitical terms, there is not a lot that Egypt can do. The Houthis in Yemen have only impacted the country indirectly.

"Egypt's military capabilities are very limited," Steffen Krüger, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Cairo office, explained.

Egyptian interventions in Yemen in the 1960s are still remembered in Cairo — back then, the country sent thousands of troops to support a new government in Yemen, in a war that would eventually last years — so Egypt would prefer to exercise restraint there.

"Although Egypt formally remains a member of the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis, its participation is largely symbolic," Krüger told DW.

And there is no doubt that Egyptian officials have noted the lack of success other countries like Saudi Arabia and the US have had in their attempts to rein in the Houthis.

"The Egyptians simply have no real alternative," argues the SWP's Roll, adding that Egypt is likely to try diplomacy first. "Basically they have to try to put a positive spin on a bad situation and somehow negotiate appropriate arrangements with the Houthis."

That may already be happening. According to London-based media outlet The New Arab on September 14, the Houthis offered to talk directy to Cairo about shipping security via the International Chamber of Shipping in London. The same publication said Egypt had rejected the offer for fear of it being seen as recognizing Houthi authority.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabian leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, travelled to Cairo to try to get Egypt's support against the Houthis.

"The Egyptians are likely to wait and see," says Roll of the SWP about the next steps for Cairo.

Egypt has a difficult balancing act to perform. The country is closely allied with Saudi Arabia but is also bound to suffer economically in any further escalation between the Saudis and the Houthi group.

A decisive factor will depend on if, and how, the Houthis restrict maritime shipping, and if they go beyond vessels with Saudi Arabian ties, or whether they are just using their currenty improved military position to exert pressure on their enemies.