French extreme candidates steam ahead in 2027 presidential race, poll shows

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen maintained her lead ahead of the presidential election and far-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon was second in most tested scenarios, a poll showed on Monday, stressing the electorate’s growing polarisation as Emmanuel Macron’s era ends.

Le Pen would garner between 33% and 36% of the votes of the first-round election depending on the scenarios tested by pollster Toluna Harris Interactive, in a survey carried out between Sept 8 and Sept 10.

Melenchon, the candidate of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, is seen reaching a run-off in at least three of the five scenarios polled, while he tied for second place in a fourth scenario. Le Pen is seen beating him easily in a run-off.

Macron’s former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe is the only centre-right candidate coming ahead of Melenchon in one scenario tested and tying in another one. The others would end up behind in all scenarios.

As Macron’s second and final term comes to ​an end, the unpopular president leaves behind a hollowed-out political centre and weak economy, opening space for hardline parties, such as LFI and Le Pen’s National Rally.

Melenchon has already run three times for president in 2012, 2017 and 2022 but has never managed to reach the second round. Le Pen has also run these same three times. She made it to the run-off in 2017 and 2022 but lost to Macron.