December petrol price: Why falling oil prices only tell half the story

The December petrol price is shaping up to bring motorists some festive season relief.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows 95 unleaded could drop by as much as R2.23 a litre.

But how much of that you actually see at the pump depends on two things most headlines skip: the rand and the fuel levy.

International oil prices have fallen below $100 a barrel for the first time in months. Brent crude was trading at a little over $92 a barrel as at the time of publishing.

At the same time, the rand is around R16.50 against the US dollar.

What the December petrol price data shows

The CEF tracks the difference between what motorists pay and what fuel actually costs each day.

When fuel is cheaper than the current pump price, it shows an over-recovery, which points to a price cut.

The latest data shows a significant over-recovery for both grades of petrol. If the trend holds:

• 95 unleaded could drop by up to R2.23 a litre
• 93 unleaded could also see a cut of R1.94 a litre

These are early figures.

The final adjustment will be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources towards the end of November, and the new prices take effect on Wednesday, 2 December.

Forecasts can change a lot.

In early October, CEF data pointed to a petrol increase of more than R4 a litre for November. By mid-October, that had fallen to about R2 a litre.

After government’s levy relief, petrol ended up dropping by just 1 cent.

The rand: the wildcard in your fuel price forecast

South Africa buys its fuel on international markets and pays for it in US dollars. That means the rand’s value matters almost as much as the oil price itself.

Here is how it works in plain terms.

If oil costs the same in dollars, but the rand weakens from R16.40 to R17.40 against the dollar, South Africa pays about 6% more in rand for the same fuel.

That can quickly cancel out a fall in the oil price.

This is not just theory.

In October, the rand’s weakness since the start of the US-Iran war was adding an estimated 40c to 50c a litre to the petrol price, compared with when the rand traded at about R15.70 to the dollar.

November showed how quickly both factors can work against motorists.

Over the review period, Brent rose to an average of $108 (R1 787) a barrel, up from $101 (R1 637), while the rand weakened from R16.21 to R16.55.

In rand terms, each barrel cost about R150 more.

Without government’s help, petrol would have gone up.

Instead, the November adjustment saw petrol drop by just 1 cent a litre.

This month, both factors are working in motorists’ favour: oil is falling, and the rand is firmer.

If either reverses before the end of November, the expected cut will shrink.

Why the full December petrol price saving may not reach you

There is a second catch.

To soften November’s increase, government temporarily cut the General Fuel Levy by R1.50 a litre for petrol and R3 a litre for diesel, from 4 November to 1 December.

That relief is set to be scaled back in December.

Because the levy goes back up, part of the CEF’s expected cut will be absorbed before it reaches the pump.

Analysts’ projections for the final petrol cut vary, from about R1.30 to R1.80 a litre, depending on how the levy changes are calculated.

The CEF’s data also excludes the slate levy, which is currently about R1.36 a litre and is only confirmed with the official announcement.

Diesel drivers may not be as lucky

Diesel received the bigger levy cut in November, of R3 a litre.

When that relief is scaled back, diesel could end up costing more in December, even if the underlying price falls.

That matters for transport and farming costs.

A year of pain at the pump

Any December relief comes after a punishing year.

Petrol has risen by almost R10 a litre in 2026, and diesel by about R13, as the US war on Iran drove extreme volatility in international oil markets.