Monsoon withdrawal advances as India records one of its weakest seasons in decades

New Delhi: The south-west monsoon is steadily pulling back from India, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) saying on Thursday that conditions are now favourable for its withdrawal from more parts of the country over the next three to four days.

The retreat follows a weak monsoon season, with cumulative rainfall 13% below the long-period average, amid developing El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific that are expected to intensify through year-end. India last recorded a below-normal monsoon in 2023, when rainfall was 95% of the long period average (LPA).

The monsoon current has further withdrawn from the remaining areas of Maharashtra, parts of Goa, Karnataka, Telangana and Odisha, along with additional areas of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.

Conditions are increasingly favourable for the monsoon to retreat from more parts of eastern India, the northern peninsula and large parts of north-east India over the next three to four days, the IMD said.

The south-west monsoon typically begins withdrawing from western Rajasthan in September, before moving across northwest and central India and then toward the southern peninsula and eastern regions.

Rain persists

The retreat does not mean an immediate end to rainfall. The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rain over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on 9 October. Bihar is likely to receive rainfall during 9-11 October, while Odisha could see isolated to scattered rain through 14 October.

In the north-east, rainfall is expected over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura over the coming days.

Withdrawal is also progressing across the northern peninsula, with the monsoon already retreating from parts of Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Telangana. Rainfall will nevertheless persist over parts of southern India, particularly Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over south interior Karnataka on 9 October, and over Kerala and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during 9-10 October.

In northwest India, scattered rainfall is expected over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab during 9-14 October, while parts of Uttar Pradesh could receive rain through 11 October.

The continued withdrawal marks the seasonal shift toward the northeast monsoon, even as rainfall remains active across parts of eastern, northeastern and southern India.

A weak monsoon

The south-west monsoon contributes about 70% of India's annual rainfall and is crucial for farm output, reservoir levels and the rural economy.

South-west monsoon rainfall in 2026 stood at 87% of the LPA, with cumulative precipitation of 759.4 mm during the June-September season, making it the fourth-lowest since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901, according to the IMD.

India last recorded a below-normal monsoon in 2023, when rainfall was 95% of the LPA.

Rainfall was below normal across most regions. South Peninsular India recorded just 76% of its LPA, with 542.0 mm of rainfall, making it the region's fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 1901 and second-lowest since 2001.

Central India, by contrast, received normal rainfall at 97% of LPA. North-western India recorded 94.1% of LPA, while Northeast India received 74%.

About the Author

Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.<br><br>Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.

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