College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Oklahoma a potential bracket buster after win vs. Texas

A look at the teams outside of our projected CFP bracket this week and where things stand before Saturday

Oct 15, 2026 at 12:03 pm ET • 7 min read

The bubble for the College Football Playoff is getting crowded and many of the teams trying to plow through the doors have nationally-ranked matchups this week that spike the intrigue. 

Signature win opportunities seemingly come every weekend in the SEC, a league dominating the AP Top 25 Poll through Week 6. However, the fastest way to exit playoff buzz is multiple losses and there's already a few teams on the verge of sinking.

Forget projecting a clean path to Selection Sunday. There's only nine unbeatens left and we're expecting at least a third of those teams to lose this month.

Based on our Week 7 College Football Playoff projections, these are the squads that did not make the final top-12 cut this week who have earned a spot in the conversation with half of this season left to make an impression on the selection committee.

Bubble watch teams

No. 13 Missouri

The Tigers boast the Power Four's leading rusher (Jamal Roberts, 828 yards), flex the SEC fourth highest-rated passer (Austin Simmons) and haven't missed a beat defensively in havoc numbers despite several new starters. It's time Eli Drinkwitz's squad starts getting the respect it deserves as the league's fourth — perhaps even third — best team. 

Missouri didn't make our updated CFP projection this week because of what the Tigers have left. Saturday's game at Ole Miss is one of three against top-10 opponents and the Tigers host Kentucky and Oklahoma over the final two weeks of November. It's a brutal slate, but one that offers prime CFP billing if Missouri delivers.

No. 16 Mississippi State

Ranked No. 10 in strength of record up to this point, the Bulldogs will also get a boost from the CFP selection committee with the added strength of conference metric this season, another data point to help SEC squads. Mississippi State is more than quarterback Kamario Taylor, but if he's banged up and misses Saturday's contest at LSU, that's a loss that will be difficult to overcome considering Oklahoma, Texas and Ole Miss remain. Right now, the Bulldogs are closer to a eight-win team than 10, which is what's necessary to play themselves off the bubble.

No. 17 Iowa

Two road tests (at Minnesota, at Northwestern) along with Wisconsin and Nebraska at home stand between the Hawkeyes and 11 regular-season wins. There's a chance Kirk Ferentz's team gets to that magic CFP number without a ranked victory, however. We don't foresee a scenario in which an 11-win Big Ten at-large team gets passed in favor of a team with a worse record and better resume, but it's possible. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, the opportunity to impress was Oct. 3 against Ohio Stat and they were out-classed by the Buckeyes.

No. 19 USC

The Trojans still have plenty to play for this season against a schedule with three top-12 teams still to come — Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA. All USC needs to do is win two of those and a 10-2 record with multiple ranked victories should be enough to warrant CFP praise. Given Lincoln Riley's failures in that scenario, however, that's going to be a serious challenge. Also a potential problem — what if beaten and 12th-ranked UCLA flatlines from here with its quarterback sidelined for the rest of the campaign?

No. 21 Wake Forest

Three factors the Demon Deacons can flex right now — their only loss was a respectable outing against Miami at home, they're No. 12 in strength of record and rank 22nd in game control. Jake Dickert's team has impressed in the ACC and finally hold a nationally ranking as a result. Wake Forest should be favored in every game the rest of the way except a challenge at SMU on Nov. 14. If the Demon Deacons finish 11-1 and earn the league tiebreaker, a rematch with the Hurricanes would include a CFP berth on the line.

No. 22 LSU

We'll go ahead and call our shot now, there's no guarantee Lane Kiffin's team gets into the bracket at 9-3 overall, even if they split games in Baton Rouge against Alabama and Texas in November. In order to get in with nine wins, the Tigers will have to win both of those games and the third loss could come elsewhere. Opening the SEC portion of the slate at 1-2 overall has left LSU a tiny margin for error moving forward considering one of the other teams who could finish with nine wins in the conference — Ole Miss — holds the head-to-head advantage.

Big 12 contenders 

• No. 8 BYU
• No. 10 Texas Tech
• No. 18 Oklahoma State
• No. 20 Houston

As it stands entering the weekend, Utah is the conference favorite projected to win the league and get the Big 12's automatic bid. The path for a second, at-large selection for the league's runner-up or perhaps an 11-win finisher that does not get to the conference title game revolves heavily around BYU's play on Saturday night against Notre Dame. That's an opportunity at marquee non-conference win for the Big 12, which only has one of those up to this point — Oklahoma State's win over Oregon in Week 2.

Oklahoma State is in a great, destiny-controlling position because the Cowboys play Houston next and host Texas Tech on Nov. 14. Winning out guarantees this team a spot in the Big 12 Championship since they won't play BYU or Utah with those two top-15 teams squaring off next month.

Houston has the toughest path of these four teams to the playoff because of the arduous slate left to play. Winners of three straight, the Cougars host Oklahoma State this week and travel to Utah in Week 7. That's more ranked opponents over a two-week stretch than most Big 12 teams play all season. 

Potential bracket busters

No. 14 Tennessee

The Vols hold one victory right now over a team with a winning record (Auburn) and play three nationally-ranked opponents at Neyland Stadium in SEC play over the next five games — Alabama, Kentucky and LSU. If Tennessee upsets the Crimson Tide this week, Josh Heupel's team moves from this group of potential bracket busters to the top of the bubble as a legitimate CFP threat. Tennessee has its run game figured out with DeSean Bishop leading the charge, but hasn't yet found a rhythm through the air. Maybe that comes this weekend against the sixth-ranked Crimson Tide, who the Vols have beaten the last two times this game's been played in Knoxville.

No. 24 SMU

Like Wake Forest, the Mustangs could win out, let the chips fall where they may and potentially be a second-ACC selection from the CFP committee. That would include a mammoth win at Notre Dame on Nov. 21, which didn't become a must-win for SMU this season until Rhett Lashlee's team stubbed their toe at Louisville in Week 3. In our preseason projection, we penned that SMU-Louisville game as the league's best shot at getting a second selection in the playoff behind Miami. Now, it looks like Wake Forest is ahead of SMU in that conversation.

Wisconsin

We'll be able to better assess the Badgers after Saturday's tussle at UCLA, but for now, those supporting this program have to like what they've seen during this four-game winning streak. Old Dominion transfer quarterback Colton Joseph has mastered the offense and Wisconsin's defense has come up with pivotal stops when needed. Now comes the hard part — three straight ranked opponents. Wisconsin is one of only two teams in the Big Ten that misses Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon this season and the Badgers are doing what they can to take advantage since the loss to Notre Dame back on Sept. 6.

Oregon

From preseason Big Ten media darling to the bracket-buster label. Ouch. That's what happens when the roster's loaded, but two in-house coordinator promotions haven't panned out and your franchise player has missed time to due injury. Dan Lanning and the Ducks have been a disappointment through six weeks, but Oregon's still not a team anyone wants to play — notably Ohio State on Nov. 7. If the Ducks win out from here, they're in, but an eight or nine-win campaign is more likely and that's not going to be good enough to get in with losses to Oklahoma State, UCLA and the Buckeyes (probable).

Oklahoma

It's rare for a team that's 3-2 overall nearing midseason to still be in a contending spot, but that's where the Sooners find themselves after beating top-ranked Texas last week. The losses at Michigan and Georgia, though important, haven't tanked the season's outlook with Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Missouri still looming. If Oklahoma wins out, the Sooners are obviously in the 12-team bracket, but even hitting nine wins — with four against top-20 opponents — should be enough for at-large respect.

JMU

Facing a Group of Six dilemma as the unbeaten frontrunners of the Sun Belt, even an unbeaten regular season and conference title may not trump a one-loss Boise State in the eyes of the selection committee. And the only way we're going to se two G6 teams in the 12-team bracket this season is if complete chaos breaks the SEC and Big Ten during the final month of the campaign. Billy Napier and his Dukes need style points and no losses moving forward.