How might the results of today’s midterm elections in the United States impact Mexico?

U.S. President Donald Trump could make greater security-related demands on Mexico after the U.S. midterm elections, according to a Mexico City-based public affairs and political risk consultancy.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of 100 seats in the U.S. Senate are on the line in today’s midterms. The Republican Party currently holds majorities in both the House and the Senate, but control of one or both chambers could change in early 2027 when newly elected lawmakers take office.

In a report titled “México y Estados Unidos. Entre la revisión del T-MEC y el impacto de las elecciones intermedias” (Mexico and the United States: Between the USMCA Review and the Impact of the Midterm Elections), Integralia Consultores says that the U.S. midterms “will modify counterweights on Trump, but won’t necessarily reduce pressure on Mexico.”

“A Democratic majority in one or both chambers would lead to increased investigations and oversight of the executive branch, intensifying internal political confrontation. Faced with greater domestic constraints, Trump might focus more attention on foreign policy to build his legacy,” the consultancy writes in the executive summary of its report.

“The fight against drug trafficking and organized crime — which enjoys greater bipartisan consensus than other international issues — could take on greater prominence and lead to new demands on Mexico,” Integralia says.

To date, President Claudia Sheinbaum has maintained a respectful relationship with Trump, even as the U.S. government pressures Mexico on a range of issues, including trade, security and immigration. Her administration has taken some steps that have been interpreted as attempts to appease the Trump administration — such as increasing tariffs on imports from China and sending scores of organized crime figures to the U.S. — but Sheinbaum has remained a steadfast defender of Mexican sovereignty and hasn’t shied away from denouncing what she sees as U.S. meddling in Mexican affairs.

What demands could Trump make on Mexico?

According to Integralia, “[a] Trump with more internal constraints due to a Democratic majority [in Congress] could dedicate more attention” to the international fight against drug trafficking, stepping up demands on Mexico for “cooperation, extraditions and actions against criminal organizations.”

“New threats of unilateral [U.S.] actions [in Mexico] can’t be ruled out,” adds the consultancy.

The Mexican government already cooperates closely with the Trump administration on security issues, but is steadfastly opposed to U.S. action on Mexican soil. Sheinbaum has denounced the Central Intelligence Agency’s alleged participation in a drug lab raid in Chihuahua in April without the authorization or knowledge of her administration.

Her government has sent more than 90 organized crime figures to the United States to face justice, while security authorities have arrested more than 70,000 people for allegedly committing high-impact crimes since she took office in October 2024. In the same period, authorities have seized over 36,000 firearms and almost 570 tonnes of narcotics, and dismantled close to 2,800 clandestine drug laboratories.

Despite the progress in combating crime and violence — homicides declined in every state in the first nine months of 2026 — the Trump administration has continued to pressure Mexico to do more to combat drug trafficking, and the U.S. president himself has periodically threatened unilateral military action against cartels in Mexico.

A continuation of such threats, as Integralia says is possible, would certainly not be a surprise.

Will the midterm results affect USMCA negotiations?

According to Integralia, the United States trade negotiations with Mexico “will move forward regardless of the electoral result.”

“Trump will retain broad authority to maintain or modify tariffs and push for stricter regional content requirements,” the consultancy says.

“However,” Integralia adds, “Republican defeats in states affected by the tariffs could increase pressure within the party to moderate some trade measures and avoid further political costs leading up to 2028,” when the next U.S. presidential election will be held.

In ongoing trade talks with the United States, Mexico is aiming to negotiate a reduction — if not the total elimination — of U.S. tariffs on Mexican steel, aluminum and vehicles. The dialogue is taking place after the Trump administration announced in July that it had decided against renewing the USMCA free trade pact for an additional 16 years to 2042. The three-way agreement remains in effect, but is currently subject to annual reviews.

Both Sheinbaum and Trump said last month that Mexico and the U.S. were “very close” to reaching a trade deal. Such an agreement could improve the prospects of the Trump administration agreeing to a 16-year renewal of the USMCA, although Washington and Ottawa would also need to resolve their trade differences.

Mexico-US trade deal ‘very close,’ confirms Sheinbaum: Tuesday’s mañanera recapped

The U.S. government has many concerns about the USMCA and its trade relationships with its neighbors, including ones related to trade deficits, energy policy and China.

How could the US midterm results affect Trump’s deportation agenda?

According to Integralia, immigration policy will remain a priority for Trump, “regardless of the makeup of the [U.S.] Congress.”

However, Democratic Party control of Congress “could increase oversight of deportations, ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] operations and the treatment of migrants” by the Trump administration, the consultancy says.

“… Mexico will continue facing pressure to contain migration flows and receive deportees,” Integralia says.

During the second Trump administration, Mexico has received Mexican deportees as well as nationals of other countries. Meanwhile, data indicates that illegal crossings into the United States from Mexico have fallen sharply during Trump’s second term.

A Democratic Party-controlled Congress that increases oversight of ICE and the treatment of immigrants in the U.S. would be a welcome development for the Mexican government, which has filed complaints with prosecutor’s offices in the U.S. regarding the deaths of Mexican citizens in the custody of ICE or during ICE operations.

Eighteen Mexicans have died in ICE custody or ICE operations during Trump’s second term, including Emiliano Andrade Covarrubias, who passed away in the Rio Grande Processing Center in Laredo, Texas, last month after he was allegedly denied medication he needed to control his health problems, including diabetes.

On numerous occasions, Sheinbaum has expressed her opposition to Trump’s aggressive deportation agenda, and said in July she disagreed with his call for continued immigration traffic stops.

“If there is a person who committed a crime, he or she must be pursued. But migration in itself shouldn’t be criminalized,” she said on July 16.