Anwar Ibrahim’s incumbency advantage

OCTOBER 14 — In my local WhatsApp group a large number claim to have voted for Anwar Ibrahim in the last general election. They also cannot then and now, name the actual MP’s name, the name on the ballot.

It’s not Hulu Langat MP Sany Hamzan’s fault they were not bothered who’d be their representative in Dewan Rakyat.

Neither were the other candidates on their minds — Markiman Kobiran (formerly BN MP for Hulu Langat and now as Pejuang candidate who loses his deposit), Johan Abd Aziz (former assemblyman for Semenyih and soon to be Dusun Tua assemblyman), Mohd Radzi Abd Latif (Bersatu division chief) nor the two other invisible lads.

People go into general election polling booths to vote for who runs the country, this is important as next month is four years of Madani completed and the nation is firmly on a general election trajectory, even if it occurs at the end of 2027.

It also softens the impact of the Melaka election on the fates of the parties next year, in the general. This is not to say the count on November 14 is inconsequential.

In addition, the states have proven over the last six years, they can be extremely malleable to whoever administers Putrajaya.

When the federal government is at stake, the voters, even the least interested ones understand it is a choice among Barisan Nasional’s Zahid Hamidi, Perikatan Nasional’s Samsuri Mokhtar — or mistaken it to be Hadi Awang — and Pakatan Harapan’s Anwar Ibrahim.

Four years ago, on November 19, 2022, Malaysians headed to centres Semenanjung-wide with PN’s Muhyiddin Yassin, BN’s Ismail Sabri Yaakob and Anwar Ibrahim as their choices, the names on the ballot paper were just incidental.

The relegation of Mahathir Mohamad from the main pack was obvious and in hindsight explains how all Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) candidates lost their deposit.

It’s a cruel game considering Mahathir’s name mattered a lot for voters in 2018 and gave Pakatan the edge to win.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim shares a light-hearted moment with traditional dancers after seeing off Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who concluded his two-day state visit to Malaysia, at the Bunga Raya Complex, Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) in Sepang on October 10, 2026. — Bernama pic

False signals from state races

In November 2021, Melaka gave a resounding two-thirds majority win for BN over both PN and Pakatan. Twenty-one out of 28 seats. Five months later in Johor, BN again romped home with two-thirds (40 of the 56 seats). The signs were ominous for other pretenders.

Later in 2022, at the general election, BN failed to win a single parliamentary seat in Melaka and only nabbed five of the 26 in Johor.

A general election is a different beast.

Add and subtract

The next general election centres around the total number of viable candidates. It’s premature to say it ends up being BN in an undefined relationship with PAS unwilling to commit to one PM candidate versus Anwar.

The meaning of undefined is that BN and PN agree on dividing seats up somewhat, campaign together but with separate logos and have first right of refusal to each other once the seats are tallied.

The assumption is that neither PN nor BN possess enough seats on their own on election day to negotiate with Borneo parties and secure the required 112 seats to form government.

So, two rounds of deal-making. Between PN and BN based on their seat count, and thereafter with the Borneo bloc. PAS’ patience with BN in the state elections may not mean more of the same when it comes to the federal contest.

A collapse in the friendship is always on the cards.

Two maybes, one outsider and the incumbent

Both PN and BN rely on backroom deals rather than polling booths, and therefore prefer to have options open, for the chat later.

So, it’s a three-way. BN, PN and Pakatan, with Muhyiddin’s Bersatu filling up the role Mahathir’s GTA played in 2022.

Which returns us to the core issue.

While the strength of the BN and PN helping each other by not competing against each other is a superpower, the inability to agree on a prime minister candidate will become a super-doubt.

Remember, while PN and BN governed together for three years (2020-2022), they opted to compete against each other at the general election.

The closest thing to the current PN-BN electoral pact is the 2008 PKR-DAP-PAS pact. But there is a stark difference. PAS in the Nik Aziz Nik Mat era was happy to let Anwar be the standard bearer.  There is too much ambition inside the PN-BN universe to have a single election poster child.

The who

There will be a lot of noise, not the least online.

The shifts from 2022 are palpable.

BN has no Ismail Sabri Yaakob as a distraction. Zahid Hamidi is PM if BN gets the nod. He has baggage, excess baggage.

From the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) no show saga of 15 years to the 47 corruption charges on hold because of a DNAA, Zahid may be too colourful to become prime minister.

He makes people pause and rethink.

Samsuri Mokhtar, chairs PN, but reports to PAS president Hadi. He constantly stalls to wait for blessings from Marang.

The gnasher from Larut Hamzah Zainudin, the leader of opposition and of the ragtag Wawasan Negara gang, cannot stay silent. Missteps from Samsuri will only embolden Hamzah.

Pakatan for all its foibles, and maybe because of its foibles has only one name.

Anwar has been prime minister for four years and that counts a lot. Secondly, he was not the incumbent in 2022. There is a certain power from being the national figurehead and automatically occupies space in the voters’ minds.

As much as the glow of PN-BN coming together, regardless of the conditions set, ups both coalitions’ chances, the no one PM candidate conundrum might haunt them.

The economy is performing well and next year Malaysia hosts the SEA Games. Voters might not be over enthused by Anwar by voting day but they may just be quite happy to stay in the present lane a little longer.