Saudi Arabia threatened from two fronts as CENTCOM meeting grows in importance - analysis

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with US Central Command head Brad Cooper on September 14. The meeting is the latest development in Saudi Arabia as it faces threats from the Houthis and also from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

The important East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia was struck by a militia in Iraq on the evening of September 10-11. Riyadh has been juggling challenges in the Gulf as a meeting in Oman between Gulf countries and Iran was postponed.

US Central Command cooperation matters to Riyadh. The two coordinated on strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq in July. Now, after Houthi threats and new threats from Iraq, the CENTCOM meeting is important for the Kingdom. Riyadh faces multi-front threats. It also wants to gauge what the US will do next.

Saudi Arabia is in a difficult position. The Iranian-backed Houthis swept up the coast of the Red Sea last week, potentially threatening the Bab el Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Press Agency noted that the Crown Prince “received in Jeddah today Commander of the US Central Command Admiral Brad Cooper, and his accompanying delegation.” The short report said that “the two sides reviewed bilateral relations and the latest regional developments.”

The report provided only brief details on the meeting in the Kingdom. Al-Arabiya noted that “the two sides reviewed bilateral relations and the latest regional developments, the report added.

US said it would provide intelligence to Saudi Arabia

MBS had spoken with US President Donald Trump multiple times as Riyadh and Washington coordinate over the escalating situation in Yemen, sources familiar with the matter said last week.”

The report noted that “Trump told MBS that the US would provide intelligence and targeting assistance, one source told Al Arabiya English, as the Iran-backed Houthis make significant gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coastline.”

Arab News in Saudi Arabia said on Monday that “Saudi Arabia lifted warnings of potential danger in four southern cities on Monday after a series of attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis heightened security concerns along the Kingdom’s border with Yemen.” The report illustrated how Saudi Arabia continues to face threats from the Houthis.

The Houthis last week surprised the region with their new offensive, when they captured the port town of Mocha and moved up the coast of the Red Sea toward the Bab el Mandeb Strait, taking several islands along the way. The Houthis also control an area near the Saudi border.

“The Saudi Civil Defense issued alerts for Najran, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Abha before declaring the areas safe. It later issued renewed warnings for Khamis Mushait and Abha and subsequently lifted those as well,” Arab News noted.

Arab News also said that the “attacks have drawn strong condemnation and expressions of solidarity from Gulf and Muslim organizations as well as Arab and regional governments, with the Gulf Cooperation Council, Muslim World League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation among those backing Saudi Arabia and condemning attacks on its territory and vital infrastructure.”

The meeting with Central Command is important

Saudi Arabia is one of the main military powers in the region. It has a sizable modern air force. It has more manpower than the Gulf states. The US military has bases in many Gulf countries, such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE. Saudi Arabia has already been fighting the Houthis since 2015. The Houthis have targeted the Kingdom with drones and ballistic missiles in the past.

In late July US CENTCOM noted that “US Central Command and the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces conducted precision strikes in Iraq, July 28, against Iran-aligned terrorists that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directed to attack US forces and Saudi energy infrastructure.” At the time the US said that the IRGC had directed around 30 “aerial drone attacks in the last 72 hours.”

It’s worth recalling some of the history here. The September 14, 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities was one of the most significant strikes on global energy infrastructure in recent decades.

Drones and cruise missiles temporarily knocked 5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi production offline, around 5 percent of global supply. The Houthis claimed responsibility, while Saudi Arabia and the United States blamed Iran.

The attack on the East-West pipeline appears to be a similar threat. Riyadh did not retaliate to the 2019 attack. It appears reticent to respond this time. It will want US support. The US has appeared to be messaging about less escalation and shifting to talks about the Iranian nuclear program. The US also seems to believe the conflict could end by the end of the year.

Iran-backed militias in Iraq have also been linked to attacks on Saudi Arabia for many years. Reports have said that Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq has used drones to target Saudi infrastructure. Kataib Hezbollah also killed three American service members in Jordan in 2024.

Saudi Arabia will need to see what comes next in terms of talks with CENTCOM and confronting the Houthis and militias in Iraq. Currently, Riyadh appears ready to do a joint investigation with Iraq on the attack on the East-West pipeline.

However, the bigger story is that Saudi Arabia still appears vulnerable. It has modern air defenses and a modern army. However, the Kingdom is a larger area to defend.

The militias can choose when and where to attack. Saudi Arabia also has a lot of strategic infrastructure. It has more to lose than the Houthis or Iraqi militias. This is how Iran threatens the region in general. It relies on the fact that others have more to lose.