Risk of unrest in Asia as Iran war, El Nino threaten food supplies

Severe weather disruptions will amplify food security risks in Asia, potentially triggering civil unrest and political instability in vulnerable countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines, according to consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

The warning comes as the war in Iran has already disrupted fuel and fertiliser supplies, both of which are key agricultural inputs. Now, weather extremes linked to a powerful El Nino are further threatening crops across the region.

Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil producer, is suffering from a rash of hard-to-control wildfires that have disrupted harvests. The monsoon rains that top rice exporter India relies on are running 15 per cent below normal, and Thailand’s sugar harvest is set to sink.

The twin threats of war and weather are driving up food inflation – an established trigger for unrest, the risk consultancy said in a report released on Thursday.