Key conclusions from Trump GOP’s midterm election wipeout

US voters handed Democrats control of Congress in midterm elections on Tuesday, delivering a stunning repudiation of President Donald Trump.

Democrats flipped long-held Republican seats in North Carolina and South Carolina, Texas and Kansas, among other places. They captured governor’s offices in Texas and Georgia. In Iowa, which Trump won by 13 points in 2024, Democrat Josh Turek won handily. Republicans barely eked out victories in races that had been expected to be blowouts.

Of all the races called so far, Democrats suffered no losses where they were expected to win. In a closely watched Ohio House race where they were down, NBC now projects the Democratic incumbent, Marcy Kaptur, will be re-elected.

The results mark an extraordinary reversal from just a few months ago, when the Senate was considered out of reach for Democrats. As the night progressed, the predicted blue wave became a tsunami, with Democrats winning or ahead in 25 House races that had leaned Republican.

As of Wednesday morning, Democrats had won at least 228 House seats, well above the 218 needed for a majority. Republicans won in 139 districts, with 68 still to be called. NBC News projected Democrats could wind up with 258 seats to Republicans 177, an 81-seat majority, and well above the 214 seats they hold in the current House.

In the Senate, the Democrats will now hold at least 54 seats, with just Alaska and Mississippi still unresolved. Currently, Democrats have 47 Senate seats, including two independents who caucus with the party.

Trump vented his frustration as he watched the returns from the East Wing of the White House, saying on social media he would have won “IN A LANDSLIDE” and casting blame for the rout. He later indicated in an interview on Fox News early Wednesday that he was willing to work with Democrats but on his own terms. 

As the news came in, markets began to slide. But futures for the S&P 500 on Wednesday erased early losses to gain 1.1 percent. Nasdaq 100 contracts also swung sharply. Among the concerns from investors were that potential Democratic policy changes could slow the development of artificial intelligence. The dollar fell by the most in two months, retreating against all major peers.

Here's a look at some of the biggest and most stunning results of the night.

Seven Senate flips – so far

Democrats needed to flip four seats to take control of the Senate, and some predictions suggested the nation wouldn’t know who had control of the chamber for days because of how long it takes for Alaska to count. But the drama was over before midnight.

The first shocker of the night was in South Carolina, a state that had been seen as one of the less plausible ones for a Democratic win, with voters turning away from Darline Graham, the sister of the late Lindsey Graham, who died in office. She fell to Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, who focused her campaign on high costs of living.

Texas was the bigger earthquake. The state had not had a Democratic senator since 1993 but James Talarico won easily over Ken Paxton as Republican voters turned away from the attorney general amid allegations of corruption, extramarital affairs and deep unpopularity.

Iowa fell later in the night, as did Kansas and Ohio.

Massive voter shifts

Exit polls showed huge numbers of Black and Hispanic voters returning to the Democratic fold after moving sharply in Trump’s favor in 2024.

The Voter Poll, a comprehensive exit poll conducted for The Associated Press and major television networks, found only nine percent of Black voters and 35 percent of Hispanic voters supporting Republicans. Comparable exit polls in 2024 found Trump got the support of 13 percent of Black voters and 46 percent of Latinos.

Republicans also lost vote share among white voters, from 57 percent in 2024 to 51 percent in 2026.

Democratic turnout also played a role. Nationally, voters for Kamala Harris exceeded Trump voters by three percentage points in the midterm elections – even though she lost the presidential election by 1.5 points.

But independents – and even some Trump voters – also played a part, according to exit polls published by CNN. About seven percent of Trump voters said they voted for a Democrat for Congress, while only two percent of Harris voters said they voted Republican. And independents broke for Democrats by 17 percentage points.

The defection of Trump voters to Democrats may have been an even bigger factor in marquee Senate races, with 11 percent of Trump’s 2024 supporters voting for Andrews in South Carolina and for Talarico in Texas.

Repudiation of Trump

Trump had told voters over the course of the elections to vote as if he was on the ballot. And, by and large, they did, sending a message of deep distrust and disappointment to a president whose approval ratings are now in the 30s.

It wasn’t just that: the results showed that voters rejected Trump’s handpicked candidates, some of whom he backed despite protests from within his own party. Those included Darline Graham, along with Paxton in Texas, who was viewed as flawed and far more vulnerable than incumbent John Cornyn.

The victory marked the first real check on Trump’s power since he returned to the White House. Rising voter discontent over the economy, the war in Iran and the administration’s heavy-handed immigration crackdown, which sometimes turned deadly, were among the reasons for the wipeout.

Gubernatorial contests were similarly decisive. In the biggest such upset of the night, Democrat Gina Hinojosa won in Texas. Keisha Lance Bottoms won in Georgia and Amy Acton beat Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio after he aired an ad that featured her estranged mother. 

Republicans outspent Democrats US$2.1 billion to US$1.8 billion across all contests. But even races that went the GOP’s way, including Byron Donalds for Florida governor, were tighter than forecast.

By the end of the night there was some finger-pointing among Democrats that the blue wave wasn’t even bigger. 

The Democratic candidate for Senate in Florida, Angie Nixon, was out-raised by Republican candidate Ashley Moody, who was expected to win by more than 10 points. She ended up winning by about three points.

Fears of violence unrealised

Before the vote, some political analysts feared turmoil, even the possibility that the military might seize polling boxes or violence might break out at voter locations. While there were problems reported with machines at some polling places, generally the voting went off without any problems. 

Republicans who had been expected to put up a fight conceded quickly. Paxton congratulated Talarico. Trump, too, appeared chastened. He had urged supporters to make the election outcome “too big to rig” – but it was Democrats, not Republicans, who took the message to heart. 

“I am absolutely willing to accept those results,” Trump said in an interview with The New York Times. “We’ll work with the Democrats, and we’ll, you know, look forward to working with them. We’ll probably work something out.”

There is plenty of time, however. The elections still must be certified. The US Justice Department, which has largely done Trump’s bidding by filing cases in Alaska and California, may challenge the counts in numerous elections.