Why the NFL MVP award is already Josh Allen's to lose after Bills QB's white-hot start to season

Allen is already a sizable betting favorite to win the NFL MVP at +260 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Sep 18, 2026 at 10:30 am ET • 3 min read

The NFL season has barely lifted off the ground, but the MVP may have already revealed himself. And he resides in a shiny new $2.2 billion stadium in Orchard Park. Josh Allen has begun the 2026 season on such a scorching hot pace that it feels like the league's Most Valuable Player award is already his to lose.

During Buffalo's Week 2 win over the Detroit Lions, Allen was nothing short of sensational. The Bills quarterback completed 20 of his 31 passes for 248 yards and rushed 14 times for 69 yards on the ground. Oh yeah, and he scored FIVE TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS! 

Maybe the only ones more demoralized by Allen's performance on Thursday night than the Lions were the folks at home facing Allen in fantasy. And even those few still had to be awestruck at his performance, even as they were being spurned by it. He was that good. 

But Allen's stellar Week 2 is just part of that equation for why he's starting to pull away as the MVP favorite this early in the season. In Week 1 against the Houston Texans, Allen was equally lethal, completing 20-of-29 passes for 334 yards and two passing touchdowns. He also rushed for 23 yards and two more touchdowns. As a reminder, that was against a Houston defense that entered the season as arguably the top unit in all of the NFL, and he shredded them. 

Excluding kneel-downs and the end-of-half drives where they simply ran out the clock, the Bills offense has conducted 18 drives so far this season. Here's what Allen has orchestrated over those possessions: 10 touchdowns, three field goals, four punts, and one turnover on downs. 

Allen is just the third player in NFL history with nine-plus total touchdowns and zero turnovers in his first two games of a season. Here are the other two instances: 

• Patrick Mahomes in 2018 
• Peyton Manning in 2013

Do you know what those versions of Mahomes and Manning have in common? Each won the NFL MVP title that season. So, Allen is thrusting himself directly on an MVP course if history is any indication. 

The betting markets are also starting to view Allen as an overwhelming favorite to win the MVP. While he began the year as the odds-on favorite to win the award at roughly +600, other candidates were within range, like Lamar Jackson (+800) and Joe Burrow (+850). Now, he's +350 at DraftKings Sportsbook (next closest is Caleb Williams at +600) and as low as +260 at FanDuel Sportsbook (next closest is Lamar Jackson at +650). 

Allen is the first player in NFL history to have five or more passing touchdowns and at least four rushing touchdowns in the first two games of the season. This is also the third instance Allen has had this type of performance over a two-game span in his career at any point of the season. Eric Hipple is the only other player in league history to do it, when the former Lions quarterback did so in 1981. 

Allen's nine total touchdowns over the first two games tie for the second-most all-time during a two-game span, trailing only Mahomes' 10 total touchdowns to begin his eventual MVP season in 2018.

When looking at Buffalo's schedule, there doesn't appear to be any real resistance coming his way to cool him down either. After getting extended rest from playing Thursday night, Allen's Bills will stay at the new Highmark Stadium for back-to-back home games against the Chargers (who just let the Cardinals score 26 on them in Week 1) and the Patriots (who lost to Drew Lock in the season opener). 

As is often the case with MVP awards, the narrative plays as big a part as the raw stats, and Allen has key pockets in the schedule to truly capture attention, especially down the stretch (which is even more favorable). While flex scheduling can come into play, Allen is slated to have four standalone games over Buffalo's final seven games of the regular season. 

• Week 12: vs. Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday, Nov. 26 (Thanksgiving) on NBC
• Week 14: at Green Bay Packers on Sunday, Dec. 13 on NBC
• Week 15: vs. Chicago Bears on Saturday, Dec. 19 on CBS
• Week 16: at Denver Broncos on Friday, Dec. 25 (Christmas) on Netflix

Provided Allen stays healthy (always a risk when predicting award winners) and plays to the level we've come to expect, these late-season games could be a showcase for him to prove his candidacy for a second-career MVP. Judging from what we've seen so far, it feels inevitable that he'll be holding the award at the NFL Honors later this winter.