EXPLAINER: What the heck is a midterm election and why does it matter?

The US electoral system is based on choices, compromises and older precedents built into the Constitution. That document was hammered out in 1787 and came into effect two years later after most states had ratified it. This Constitution created separate and shared powers among the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government. A president is elected every four years, all senators for six-year terms, and members of the House of Representatives for two-year terms. 

A third of the Senate’s members are elected every two years, reflecting the intent that the Senate should partially reflect the ideas and views of the electorate of today, yesterday and the day before yesterday. Thus, it was meant to be a more deliberative body than the House of Representatives. For the latter, with two-year terms and direct ties to their smaller constituencies, representatives are more in sync with the opinions and views of the population. Thus, appropriations and taxation measures originate in the House.

Senators, on the other hand, represent an entire state; two are elected from each state. State legislatures originally elected US senators until the Constitution was amended to make all senators directly elected.

House seats are apportioned according to each state’s population, meaning representatives generally serve smaller local districts – except in low-population states with a single seat. Non-voting delegates also represent Washington, DC, Puerto Rico, and US territories including Guam, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands and the US Virgin Islands.

States with large populations such as California, Texas, Illinois, Florida or New York thus have a larger share of the total membership of the House, while Wyoming, North Dakota and Delaware, with much smaller populations, have only one or two members in the House. There are 100 senators, while the House of Representatives has 435 members.

While a president is not running for election or re-election in a midterm election, as it comes halfway through a presidential term, the entire House of Representatives is up for election, together with a third of the Senate – between 33 and 35 members, depending on retirements or deaths in office. Many state governors, state legislators, and other officials are on midterm ballots.

Who runs elections in the US?

Elections are conducted by the individual states, in accord with powers reserved to the states by the Constitution. This is because the US has a federal political system rather than a unitary one such as South Africa’s. Elections had already been part of the nation’s political circumstances before it became a country. The first elected legislature was established in the colony of Virginia just over a decade after the first arrival of English settlers.

Consequently, individual states administer their own midterm and presidential elections. Over time, the national government has established rules and regulations (including Supreme Court decisions) regarding financial contributions to candidates and parties by individuals, organisations and interest groups. There are also regulations regarding the use (or misuse) of the postal system in campaigns.

However, each state has the power to determine who is eligible to vote and register to vote, as well as how elections are administered, and how votes are tabulated. A growing number of states have made provision for advance, absentee and mail-in votes.  

Are primaries and caucuses different from midterm elections?

Primary elections and caucuses are organised by parties to select their candidates for an upcoming election. Primaries depend on eligible voters in each state picking their candidate from among the declared candidates within a party for the November election.

State election boards generally take the lead in the physical process of voting and tabulating votes for primaries, but not in the selection of candidates. 

Caucuses are usually physical meetings where eligible voters, party by party, choose candidates. Delegates to caucuses are often selected through local meetings of registered party members, county by county, within a state. Primaries and caucuses evolved from movements bringing candidate selection closer to voters, not party leaders, in what used to be called “smoke-filled rooms”. 

In presidential election years, the primaries and caucuses generate delegates to national party conventions where a presidential candidate’s selection is hammered out through roll-call votes. Here again, large population states have much larger delegate counts than small states, although some complex maths may award somewhat more voting weight based on the party’s success in a previous election.

What is the likely outcome of this midterm election?

Given that President Donald Trump’s polling numbers are in historically low territory as a result of anger over kitchen-table issues such as the increasing prices of food and fuel, higher interest rates, deep dissatisfaction over the conflict in the Middle East, and the often-violent actions of immigration raids, many commentators (and polls) are predicting a significant shift towards Democrats in many congressional districts likely to give them control of the House of Representatives.

There is also a possibility that the Democrats will be able to shift four or more Senate seats into their column, giving them control there, too. Some polling points to possible Democratic wins in Senate races that have been safe for Republicans for a generation.

In the face of these uphill struggles for Republican candidates, the president is attempting to turn the election into a referendum about him and his presidency, even as some Republican candidates in closely fought districts are carefully trying to demonstrate distance between them and the president. Americans do not, as South Africa does, vote for a party and thus its pre-chosen slate of candidates.

If the Democrats win one or both houses of Congress, they will be in charge of scheduling votes on proposed legislation and, crucially, holding hearings on policies and decisions by the Trump administration. They will be able to issue subpoenas for key officials to testify at hearings and to issue summonses for government documents. Such an outcome would make the last two years of the Trump administration deeply contentious and potentially embarrassing – up to the possible impeachment of officials. 

It is noteworthy that Vice-President JD Vance, in his public speeches, has been asking the electorate to elect Republicans so they can “finish the job” they have been embarking on, rather than advocating specific initiatives and policies.

The Democrats, meanwhile, have had difficulties articulating a national, party-wide set of ideas besides “throw the rascals out”, given the split between its progressive/social democratic wing and more moderate/establishment party leaders. 

Regardless of the specific outcome of the midterm election, individuals in both parties who hope to run for president in 2028 will increasingly be working to gain public notice and attention through speeches, sharp questioning in congressional committees, and issuing statements, briefs, and books outlining their career trajectory, ideas about government, and their suitability for the most important job in US politics. Note: Vance recently issued a book about his embrace of religious commitment, and California Governor Gavin Newsom this year published a memoir about his political career. There will be more.

The role of AI and large data centres

One surprise in this year’s electoral cycle has been the rapid rise of voter concerns over AI and large data centres. The future impact of AI on jobs and income security has, quite suddenly, become an issue transcending party politics. The growth of massive data centres and their impacts on electricity prices and water supplies are animating public concern in many places. The lack of real policies to manage or guide these developments is increasing the concerns of citizens, especially as the current administration’s lack of proposals is souring opinion on the Trump administration. How these concerns will play out in November is one of the great unknowns.

‘Money is the mother’s milk of politics’

Running for public office in the US is expensive. A majority of candidates cannot self-finance their campaigns. In some campaigns, the costs run to millions of dollars, including staffing, travel, communication, advertising and other expenses. As a result, campaign financing is a major preoccupation of candidates and their campaigns. Federal law limits individual contributions to a candidate to $3,800 in a primary campaign and another $3,800 in the general election. By law, these contributions must be thoroughly recorded and reported.

But, over the years, to get around these limitations, an entire ecology of political action committees (PACs) and SuperPACs has arisen. A PAC is a tax-exempt organisation pooling contributions from donors to fund campaigns for or against candidates, ballot initiatives, or proposed legislation. Over time, PACs have become a significant component in campaign financing, with more than 4,600 registered PACs across the country.

In essence, PACs collect their donations and distribute the funds to candidates or campaigns that align with their values. Limitations on traditional PACs mean they can receive up to $5,000 per individual, contribute up to $5,000 per candidate per election cycle and donate $15,000 annually to national political parties, and $5,000 annually to other PACs.

The landscape changed dramatically following the Supreme Court's landmark Citizens United (2010) decision, which paved the way for SuperPACs. Unlike traditional campaign committees, SuperPACs can raise and spend unlimited sums from billionaires, corporations and labour unions to run ads supporting or attacking candidates, provided they do not coordinate directly with the campaigns.

While SuperPACs are legally required to disclose their donor lists to the Federal Election Commission, political operatives frequently route funds through 501(c)(4) “social welfare” non-profits – “dark money” groups. Because these non-profits are not required to reveal their financial backers, they can pour hundreds of millions of dollars into SuperPACs while completely masking the sources of the money.

The role of PACs and SuperPACs in US political life is controversial and the subject of criticism over how less-than-transparent groups may wield a significant influence in elections. 

What will be affected by this election?

If the Republicans manage to squeak by to majorities in both houses in Congress, we should expect a kind of rough continuity in both domestic and international policies even as Donald Trump’s lame-duck star fades. On the other hand, should Democrats claim one or both houses, expect a massively heightened scrutiny of Trump administration policies, efforts to reverse some or many of these, and pressures towards rebuilding fractured relationships with traditional allies and alliances – and perhaps growing pressures on the Israeli government as well as attempts to reverse the current slant towards Russia towards more assistance and support for Ukraine.

While South Africa is not a major issue in this election, a Democratic tsunami might lead to some relief regarding the Trump administration’s demands on South Africa’s policies. We should also expect a much stronger effort to enforce the provisions of congressionally approved budgets and away from ad hoc decisions by the Trump administration to shift funds towards favoured projects. 

In essence, even if a majority of eligible voters choose not to exercise their franchise, the results of this year’s midterm election will be consequential for Americans and the rest of the world. DM