Big Ten Power Rankings, Week 11: League in a precarious College Football Playoff position

The Big Ten expected to enter the stretch run of the season wondering if the conference could increase the number of teams it sent to the College Football Playoff from three in 2025 to four in 2026.

Instead, with three weeks to play, the conference is staring down a reality where they are hopeful to get two teams in -- and that isn't even a guarantee. The latest batch of rankings from the CFP committee were unkind to the Big Ten, as undefeated UCLA climbed to No. 4, but Indiana slipped five spots to the No. 9 ranking despite being on a bye week. 

After the Hoosiers, No. 15 Iowa, No. 16 Oregon, No. 18 USC and No. 20 Ohio State make up the rest of the ranked Big Ten squads. The Hawkeyes, Ducks and Buckeyes are all out of ranked opponents to play, which will make it exceptionally difficult for any of those three to climb the rankings without chaos above them. 

Two-loss USC still controls its own destiny as they face No. 9 Indiana on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS) and then close the season against No. 4 UCLA, but if the Trojans win those two games to punch their ticket to the Playoff, it could knock one (or both) out of the all-important top 11 (with the G6 automatic qualifier taking that 12th spot). 

As a result, there has to be some anxiety in the Big Ten offices as they face a reality where getting two teams into the Playoff feels like the best-case scenario of the likely outcomes. The easiest way to do that is for UCLA and Indiana to win out and face each other in the Big Ten title game. One team would earn a bye, and the other would likely earn a first-round home game. 

There are some disaster scenarios at play, though. UCLA has earned the committee's begrudging respect, but still trails three teams despite an undefeated record. If the Bruins lose twice in their final three games against Illinois, Michigan and USC, they would likely fall out of an at-large bid. 

If Indiana loses to USC and then the Trojans lose to UCLA, that could cost both the Hoosiers and the Trojans a top-12 spot and require someone other than UCLA to win the Big Ten title game to get a second bid. 

The one positive for the Big Ten in its quest to get as many CFP participants as possible is that this season has been defined by chaos across the country, not just in the Big Ten. The Big 12 is in a similar position, and if No. 10 BYU and No. 12 Texas Tech stumble again late, that opens up room for Big Ten teams to climb. 

The problem for the Big Ten is that where chaos has damaged the résumés of their top teams, it has worked in favor of the SEC, which currently has four teams in the top 11. While it's possible No. 6 Texas, No. 8 Tennessee and No. 11 Kentucky lose again to cause a slide, the teams that beat them will have a chance to make a leap. 

In a year where nothing seems to be going according to expectations, the last three weeks of the season are going to be a fascinating battle for Playoff position. In the Big Ten, there will be some interesting rooting alliances forming to get the most teams into the dance, but at this point they need help and for some of their internal chaos to stop. 

What has that chaos done to the Big Ten Power Rankings? Let's dig in...

1. UCLA

Last week: 1

The Bruins have a knack for finding their best late in games when they need it most. At Minnesota, a tough environment against a tricky opponent, Ty Dieffenbach hit a pair of 75-yard touchdown passes in the second half to get UCLA to 9-0. That finally earned the Bruins the committee's respect in the form of a No. 4 ranking, but there's still some skepticism about just how good this UCLA team is. They won't have a chance to really quiet the doubters until the closer against USC, but a good Illinois team rolls into L.A. this week, and if they can take care of business against an Illini team riding a four-game win streak, it'll prove something to those who know. 

2. Indiana

Last week: 2

The Hoosiers won't be short on bulletin board material this week after falling five spots during their bye week. However, while they can be frustrated about the committee all they want, the message sent their way was loud and clear: prove it. 

Last year was last year, and the Hoosiers won't get any benefit of the doubt as the reigning champs anymore. Not after so many close calls against unranked opponents -- and losing to the one highly ranked team they've played. If they can't beat USC at home, they don't deserve to be a Playoff team. They are in the same boat Notre Dame was in last week against Miami, and now need to do exactly what the Irish did to solidify their spot. 

3. USC

Last week: 3

Saturday at Indiana is the biggest game of Lincoln Riley's USC tenure. A win and the Trojans have a very real chance at making the CFP and the Big Ten title game. A loss and he falls to 5-8 on the road in the Big Ten (with one of the wins being at UCLA, which doesn't really qualify as a road trip). 

Riley can either erase the narrative about his ability to win against the Big Ten's best by knocking off Ohio State and Indiana in succession, or he can feed it by failing to get his team to play at its top level on the road once again. 

4. Iowa

Last week: 5

All Iowa's got to do is beat Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska to close out the season 10-2 and give themselves a shot at the CFP (and, possibly, the Big Ten title game). The problem is that the Hawkeyes never make it easy on themselves with their preferred style of play, and they will allow at least two of those teams to hang around in a close game that swings on a big defensive or special-teams play. 

Typically, it's Iowa that produces those, but every once in a while the pendulum swings the other way and costs the Hawkeyes that special season. We'll find out over the next three weeks if this Iowa team can avoid one of those traps and give the committee something to think about. 

5. Illinois 

Last week: 9

I told y'all not to let the Illini get hot, and what did you do? You let the Illini get hot. 

Bret Bielema's ripped off four in a row, and suddenly this Illinois defense looks a lot more like the units we've come to expect from Bielema's squads. They've allowed an average of 13.3 points in the last three games and now head on the road to face No. 4 UCLA, where they can compound the Big Ten's Playoff anxiety. 

If the Illini can make it five straight by beating the Bruins, that puts UCLA in danger of missing the CFP, and Bielema's boast that Illinois would be ranked as a three-loss team if they were in the SEC will become a reality. 

6. Oregon

Last week: 10

The Ducks put a beatdown on Ohio State in the Horseshoe on Saturday, and that was the second time this season we saw Oregon look like Oregon -- the first being against USC. 

The Ducks haven't looked that fast and that dynamic often this year, but the offensive revival after firing Drew Mehringer seems to be for real. Oregon needs a lot of help to get there, but the CFP is suddenly not out of reach for the No. 16 team in the country. Michigan, Michigan State and Washington to close the season present a different kind of challenge for Oregon. 

The Ducks have gotten up for most of their big games this year, but they've had an issue with sleepwalking a couple of times and will need to stay focused to salvage this season with a 9-win campaign. 

7. Wisconsin

Last week: 8

The Badgers took care of business against Rutgers and now head on the road to play Maryland. With Purdue up after that, Luke Fickell ought to be on his way to a much-needed 8-win season, with a chance to do one better in a fun closer against Minnesota. 

However, if this season has taught us anything, it's that nothing is ever as easy as it seems. Wisconsin will need to remain focused despite a weak closing schedule to finish off the best season of Fickell's tenure and reward the program's patience for sticking with their coach. 

8. Ohio State

Last week: 4

There's at least an excuse for the offense looking off after the Julian Sayin injury, but the defensive performance the last two weeks from the Buckeyes has been the most disappointing part of their two-game losing streak. USC got what it wanted, when it wanted and then they got carved up by Dylan Raiola and Oregon at home. 

They got some garbage-time scores to make it look borderline respectable, but Ryan Day's back under fire in Columbus, and they desperately need to take care of business in the final three games. 

Northwestern is limping in this week with quarterback injury issues as well, and the Buckeyes desperately need to make this a get-right game. 

9. Minnesota

Last week: 7

After coming so close to the upset at Indiana, the Gophers found themselves with another shot against a top-10 opponent in Week 10 but let go of the rope late as UCLA pulled away. 

Two late 75-yard touchdown passes by the Bruins proved to be the difference, and now the Gophers have to reset mentally and physically for a game at Penn State that suddenly looks much tougher than it did a few weeks ago. 

Few teams play the underdog role better than PJ Fleck's Minnesota squad, but we'll see if body blows and the mental fatigue of close calls drag them down in the stretch run. 

10. Northwestern

Last week: 6

Northwestern's offense looked unsurprisingly hapless without quarterback Aidan Chiles against a very good Iowa defense. Now the Wildcats have to head to Columbus to take on a frustrated Ohio State team with Chiles' status unclear.

While the Buckeyes' recent form presents a rare opportunity for a win in the Horseshoe, the uncertainty at the quarterback position makes it tough to believe too much in the Wildcats' chances. This has still been a great year in Evanston, but they unfortunately seem to be limping towards the finish line as of this moment. 

11. Penn State

Last week: 14

Don't let the Nittany Lions get hot! Penn State's got back-to-back wins and are above .500 again, and suddenly eight wins isn't out of the question. 

They're (somewhat shockingly) big favorites over Minnesota at home this week and then close it out with Rutgers and Maryland. A five-game winning streak to end the year would alleviate a lot of tension about Year 1 of the Matt Campbell era, but they've got to stay focused for all 60 minutes after nearly squandering a four-score lead in Seattle last week. 

12. Washington

Last week: 11

The good news for Washington is their loss at home to Penn State was not the most embarrassing of the week in the Big Ten. 

Thanks to a second-half rally, it looked borderline respectable, but we all saw that first-half scoreline and know what really happened there. Jedd Fisch has to have it this week at Michigan State to get to six wins before closing the year with Indiana and Oregon. 

Scrapping for bowl eligibility wasn't supposed to be how 2026 went in Seattle, but if the Huskies somehow end up at five wins, Fisch might be in real trouble. 

13. Nebraska

Last week: 12

Matt Rhule, brother, you can't let this happen again. The Huskers haven't scored more than 17 in their four-game losing streak and fired offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen in a desperate attempt to find something positive to end the season. At this point, there are two ways for this to go. 

Up next for Nebraska is a trip to Rutgers, which should be a win, but at this point, nothing is off the table with this Huskers team. A loss and it's a disaster, but even a win to get to six wins only delays the anxiety in Lincoln for one more week. 

Nebraska closes with Ohio State and Iowa, both of which should be ranked for those games. Matt Rhule has not beaten a ranked opponent at Nebraska -- who have lost an astounding 31 consecutive games against ranked opponents. He either finally turns things around and ends the year on a bit of a positive note or he adds two more to that streak and has everyone in red ready to run him out of Lincoln -- only, they probably can't afford to do so this offseason. 

14. Michigan State

Last week: 17

Saturday was a hater's dream for the Spartans. Coming in at 2-6 on the season and 0-5 in Big Ten play, all Michigan State could care about was trying to make Michigan feel somehow worse than they do. 

Mission accomplished. 

Beating Michigan 15-6 in the Big House by exclusively kicking field goals and shutting them out until the final two minutes of the game has to be one of the greatest days of Pat Fitzgerald's life. I cannot imagine how invigorating it must feel to go into your rival's stadium as an underdog and squeeze the life out of them in front of 100,000 increasingly depressed and angry fans. 

Who knows if Michigan State will win another game this year -- and to be honest, who cares? That one win in Ann Arbor was worth the price of admission this season, and it doesn't matter how many times you expand the CFP, that's what college football is really all about. 

15. Rutgers

Last week: 16

You may ask how Rutgers moves up after a 31-10 loss, but that's just a matter of two teams earning their place at the bottom more this week. 

This is still a dreadful season for the Scarlet Knights, but with a Nebraska team limping into New Jersey on a four-game losing streak this week, Greg Schiano (who is confirmed back for 2027) has a chance to kick Matt Rhule while he's down and really ruin the Huskers' year. 

That's the kind of thing Rutgers lives for, and they ought to be fired up for the chance to make someone else feel miserable for a change. 

16. Maryland 

Last week: 18

The Terps will not go winless in the Big Ten this season, and to celebrate, they get to climb out of the bottom of these rankings. It wasn't the prettiest game in West Lafayette, but Maryland got the job done in a 34-29 win at Purdue as they turn the page after firing Mike Locksley. 

We'll see how long the interim coach bump lasts as they host Wisconsin this weekend, before a tough road trip to USC and a closing game against a Penn State team that suddenly has some life in their eyes. This might be the last win of the season, but it's better than posting that goose egg in conference play. 

17. Purdue

Last week: 15

Remember when Purdue had back-to-back wins over Illinois and Minnesota? That feels like an awfully long time ago. Losing four in a row in Big Ten play isn't exactly a new feeling for the Boilermakers, but having that fourth loss be to previously winless Maryland? That's rough. 

All of the feeling of progress in West Lafayette has faded, and Purdue is staring down the barrel of a three-win campaign. The offense that carved up Minnesota hasn't quite been that sharp, but the real issue is a defense that's now allowed 31-plus points in three straight games. 

18. Michigan

Last week: 13

Michigan's performance against Michigan State was one of the most embarrassing of the season anywhere in the country. This was just a game the Wolverines could not lose, and not only did they lose it, but they also did so in disastrous fashion. 

This was going to be a disappointing season no matter what, but giving Pat Fitzgerald his first Big Ten win at Michigan State by kicking five field goals at the Big House and needing a garbage-time touchdown to avoid getting shut out at home for the first time in 60 years? That's a catastrophe. 

Kyle Whittingham looks completely out of his depth and overwhelmed by the Michigan job, which is shocking given his tenure at Utah, and Saturday's loss is in the running for the worst of the season by any team anywhere.