El Nino heat could add 451,000 deaths

CALL FOR ACTION: Governments can prepare with heat-warning systems, cooling centers, hydration stations, expanded hospital capacity and anticipatory financing

This year’s powerful El Nino and the record global heat it is driving, along with severe droughts, wildfires and shrinking water supplies, could lead to nearly half a million more deaths worldwide by the end of February, a research report released yesterday said.

The grim warning by the University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab said that as many as 451,000 more heat-related deaths between June and the end of February could be attributed to El Nino, compared with heat deaths expected in a typical year.

The heaviest toll is expected in poorer countries, already struggling with food insecurity and high energy costs, partly due to climate change and the fallout of the war in Iran, the group said.

A man wipes sweat from his face as he carries a pedestal fan on his shoulder amid high temperatures in Bhubaneswar, India, on June 25.

Photo: Bloomberg

Michael Greenstone, a cofounder of the group and the study’s coauthor, said the heat danger would likely persist beyond February — even though El Nino is expected to end by then.

The fallout of the weather phenomenon could be felt well into next summer, he added.

The research shows that heat is most dangerous in places that are already hot and relatively poor, he said.

“If you’re already in a hot place, the extra couple of degrees are going to be much more dangerous,” he said.

Wealthier places generally have greater access to air-conditioning, reliable water supplies and functioning health systems, he added.

The study combined seasonal temperature forecasts with localized estimates of how high temperatures affect mortality across more than 24,000 regions worldwide.

Researchers estimated the additional heat-related deaths by comparing deaths expected under El Nino-driven high temperatures with deaths expected if temperatures remained similar to what they have been in the last three decades. The projected fatalities are for the entire El Nino period, from June 2026 until the end of February 2027.

The study also warns that developing countries would bear the heaviest burden of the excessive heat.

The researchers behind the report found that the Sahel region in Africa — countries along the semiarid southern fringe of the Sahara Desert — is expected to be the hardest-hit, with about 66,800 additional deaths caused by El Nino-driven heat.

Other major hot spots include South and Southeast Asia and parts of Latin America, the report said.

The researchers projected about 19,400 additional heat-related deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, as well as 19,300 in Indonesia, 15,800 in India and 13,300 in Brazil.

With such staggering numbers, there are recommended measures that governments can take, the report said.

They include heat-warning systems, cooling centers, hydration stations, protections for outdoor workers, expanded hospital capacity and targeted outreach to elderly people and other vulnerable groups.

The authors also call for what they describe as anticipatory financing, so governments can move resources before dangerous heat peaks.

Abhiyant Tiwari, a heat expert at NRDC India who was not involved in the study, said the report’s projections should serve as a call to action rather than be another reason for alarm.

While it is one thing to have well thought-out plans — as India does — implementing these plans and raising needed funds remains a challenge, he said.

“The real measure of our preparedness is not how many heat warnings we issue, but how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths,” Tiwari added.