Germany: Difficult days for Chancellor Merz

Why have the results of the two German state elections held on Sunday, September 20, thrown the spotlight on the federal government led by the Christian Democrats (CDU) and its chancellor Friedrich Merz?

For the first time, the party failed to reach the required 5% of votes to enter parliament in the northeastern coastal state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In the city-state of Berlin, where the CDU was incumbent, the party suffered heavy losses and is likely to end up on the opposition benches.    

The chancellor knows the significance of this: "This election is a profound turning point. It is a dramatic and unprecedented result for the CDU in Germany that we could not clear the 5% threshold. For an entire bloc to leave the state parliament is a heavy blow, and that will resonate with us for a long time to come."  

German state elections reveal increasingly polarized country

At the same time, Merz conceded that federal policy, which had failed to convince the public, had played a role in the defeats. Most voters are also not satisfied with the chancellor himself. However, he also sees another cause: "We are experiencing a dramatic shift of the party-political system in Germany, as are many other countries," Merz said.

The chancellor cited the competition at the political margins: "In [Sunday's] elections, more than 40% of the vote went to forces which are destructive, which question our political, parliamentary system. And who attempt to excite people with radical and simple solutions," was his analysis. Merz did not name the parties he was referring to, but he clearly meant the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left Party. 

The AfD is classified as "confirmed right-wing extremist" by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany's domestic intelligence agency, in 5 of Germany's 16 federal states — but not in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, both regions in which it was able to significantly grow its share of the vote. In the German capital, the AfD's result grew from 9% to 16% since the previous election. In the northeastern coastal state, the party more than doubled its result, to 38%. AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla said, alluding to his party's color: "The blue wave cannot be stopped." 

Criticism of the 'firewall' policy

They have pulverized the CDU, the chancellor's resignation is "overdue." The AfD's other co-leader Alice Weidel concluded: "This clearly shows that we have replaced the CDU as the party of the masses." For the first time in its history, the CDU has failed to make it into a state parliament. 

"That is also the result of a very unintelligent firewall policy," Weidel added, referring to the CDU's so-called "resolution of incompatibility," which rejects coalitions with both her party and the socialist Left.

The AfD's claim to have taken the place of the CDU is unfounded, according to political scientist Wolfgang Muno from the University of Rostock in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The AfD is no big tent party representing conservative interests, he told DW: "It is a right-wing extremist party which has managed to bring together various groups."

Muno's opinion of the Left Party is vastly different to Merz's: "We have seen that the Left has really moved toward being a pragmatic, democratically oriented party. Therefore, there is no reason for the Christian Democrats to simply accuse them of being extremists, because the Left is not an extremist party," Muno said.

The Left Party faces antisemitism allegations

The political scientist considers criticism of Israeli policies to be legitimate. However, there have also been antisemitic incidents in connection with this. That is why Muno is expecting the Left to send a clear signal that such things are not acceptable. "But not being open to cooperating with a democratic Left Party is, in my opinion, a bad sign," he said, referring to the CDU. 

In Berlin, the socialist Left with lead candidate Elif Eralp succeeded in doubling its previous result to 26% and won an election in the city-state for the first time. A scandalous campaign event appearance by rapper Dahabflex, who sang about wishing death for Israel's soldiers, appears not to have damaged the party. Its district association in Neukölln, which was responsible for inviting the singer, said it intended to clarify the matter. 

Josef Schuster, President of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, is skeptical: "So far there have been no personnel or political consequences." He appealed to the Social Democrats and Greens not to form a coalition with the Berlin election winners.

Federal co-leader of the Left, Ines Schwerdtner, told DW that she would not tolerate antisemitism among the party's ranks. "We are there in Berlin to build bridges — Elif Eralp is doing that. And within the party we will absolutely ensure that something like this does not happen." 

Eralp, whose parents fled to Germany after a military coup in Turkey, could become the first mayor from the Left in Berlin. About 200,000 of the German capital's 4 million residents have Turkish roots.

Against this background, the lead candidate considers her and her party's success as an important sign: "I view this election result also as a victory for solidarity, for diversity, for democracy, against the shift to the right which we are experiencing in many places in this country."

Why Germany's political center is losing ground

Merz vows to push through with welfare reforms

Social Democrats (SPD) lead candidate in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania Manuela Schwesig has had partial success. With about 36% of the vote, her party came in just behind the AfD, but she has good prospects of being able to remain state premier: "I will propose to my party that we hold talks with both the Greens and the Left — the two democratic parties represented in the state parliament — and fulfil our electoral mandate."

The incumbent, who has held the office since 2017, is critical of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's announcement that he wants to carry on with his course of deep cuts to the welfare system. The most controversial is the planned pension reform. "He is misjudging the situation of what the people on the ground think, at least in my state," Schwesig said.

She reminds Merz of the agreement his party made with the SPD at the federal level: "I would like for the coalition to implement exactly what we negotiated together in the coalition agreement, namely that the pension without deductions remains possible after 45 years of contribution."

Meanwhile, this agreement has been hanging in the balance. Like Schwesig of the SPD, some eastern German CDU state premiers have also spoken out against the chancellor's plans.

Despite this, the SPD faces a dilemma because at the federal level it is part of the government with the CDU. Party co-leader Bärbel Bas now wants to draw the "correct conclusions" from the results of the state parliament elections.

However, she also said that the party had taken responsibility in the federal government. "We are in this coalition, and we also want to maintain it. Nevertheless, we must also receive the analysis from the campaign trail that the people are not satisfied with the upcoming reforms. That means that we, together with our coalition partner, must seek solutions."