The political capital of Nigerian gladiators: Obi’s assets, Wike’s liability, Tinubu’s profit, By Sunday Adelaja

In 2023, Obi possessed something Wike would have loved to have: A nationwide emotional constituency.

The Obidient phenomenon gave Obi access to:

• millions of young Nigerians;
• social-media activists;
• professionals;
• diaspora supporters;
• entrepreneurs;
• Christian constituencies;
• reform-minded voters;
• dissatisfied APC and PDP voters.

Wike possessed something different: A network of politicians and political operators. Put the two assets together and you have the ingredients of a formidable political organisation: Obi’s mass enthusiasm plus Wike’s political machinery.

That combination never materialised.

It is therefore reasonable, as a matter of political analysis, to ask whether Obi’s biggest loss was not that he didn’t win the presidential election.

I believe that a greater loss was his inability to capitalise on the massive support and the goodwill he enjoyed from Nigerians. His failure to institutionalise the enormous political capital he accumulated during the campaign. On the other hand Wike is taking advantage of that void and doing exactly what Obi was supposed to have done

Popularity Versus Political Architecture

 The central lesson of the present political landscape in Nigeria is that there are at least four levels of political power in the country as of this moment.

Level 1 — Personal popularity

People like the candidate. This is the biggest asset of Peter Obi

Level 2 — Movement

Those people organise around common political objectives. Peter Obi is also trying to do something in this aspect.

Level 3 — Political Machinery

The movement develops:

• ward structures;
• local leaders;
• candidates;
• fund-raising;
• voter registration;
• polling-unit organisation;
• legal teams;
• communications infrastructure;
• policy institutions.

It is in this aspect Wike’s assets lie, this is what he has upgraded to the newly emerging Rainbow Coalition

Level 4 — Governing coalition

The organisation can negotiate with:

• governors;
• legislators;
• traditional institutions;
• business groups;
• regional blocs;
• religious organisations;
• other political parties.

 This is the greatest asset of Asiwaju even though WIKE has some of these leverages but it is Asiwaju who has perfected it above others

To summarise the above power basis and assets of our three gladiators, it is safe to say:

Obi demonstrated extraordinary strength at Level 1 and elements of Level 2.

Wike’s political career demonstrates much greater emphasis on Levels 3 and 4.

Tinubu’s career illustrates the construction of all four over a much longer period.

Three Gladiators Three Models

We can therefore describe the three politicians through three different political models:

Peter Obi

1. Mass popular enthusiasm
2. Personality driven movement

Nyesom Wike

1. Political Relationships and bargaining power
2. Cross party coalition

Bola Tinubu

1. Long-term institutional network
2. Political machine and coalition

This is not a ranking.

It is a description of different forms of political capital.

Obi’s asset was the mass following and general goodwill of a large sector of the country. As at the end of the elections of 2023 Obi had in his disposal what he could have turned into a similar structure as the rainbow coalition that Wike is doing now across political divides and regions. Unfortunately that opportunity was not captured

On the other hand Wike had a huge liability in his hands. His term as governor had just come to an end, we can say he was unemployed after the 2023 elections. Secondly his successor turned against him soon after, he was at the verge of losing his political base. Thirdly his political party kicked him out. Fourthly his G5 group were all badly bitten thr only surviving governor out of the five Seyi Makinde also turned against him.

However despite all this long list of liabilities he managed to resurrect his political fortune to the extent that even the almighty APC governors are now afraid of him and his rainbow coalition. This right here is called a true political sagacity. Obi had a better chance to create such a powerhouse of political influence but WIKE did.

At the end of the day the biggest winner of all these is President Tinubu. He gained from the fact that Peter Obi didn’t know how to maximise his popularity. Hence 2027 is almost a given for Tinubu right now. He also gained the ingenuity of Nyesom Wike and his rainbow coalition vowing to work for the president’s reelections. In the meantime most of the other parties are being emptied into APC. As a result 31 of the 36 states governors are now members of Tinubu’s party

Friends, politics is not for small boys be it in Nigeria, Europe or America you must know the rules and play the games by the science of it.

Mass popular enthusiasm, Personality driven movement. Political Relationships and bargaining power,

Cross party coalition. Long-term institutional network Political machine and coalition.

These are some of the ingredients of success in the world of political gladiators. To win in this game of politics you must have them and master their timely use to help you climb to the plateau of your aspirations

In my next article I’ll be talking about how both WIKE and Obi could navigate their past to build their political future

Sunday Adelaja is a Nigerian born leader, transformation strategist, pastor and innovator. He was based in Ukraine.