Odds of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire don't hit 50% until July 2027
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Polymarket odds of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia hit 51% at the end of June 2027.
The largest odds of a ceasefire are at the end of September at 57%, according to investors at the predictions market platform.
There are only 15% odds of a ceasefire by the end of the year and only 31% odds that Russia and Ukraine will reach an agreement by the end of the first quarter in 2027.
Last week, efforts to negotiate an energy ceasefire between both countries by the U.S. came to an end as Russia attacked infrastructure in central Ukraine. Kyiv responded by striking Russian oil refineries.
On Oct. 11, President Donald Trump had declared “an energy ceasefire,” but neither of the countries involved said they had agreed to it.
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