Amit Shah Pitches Zero Disaster Casualties. ISRO Sent Its Warnings Years Ago

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has set an ambitious goal for India: achieving "Zero Casualty" during disasters. Chairing the third meeting of the Governing Body of the National Institute of Disaster Management in New Delhi earlier this week, Shah said India's disaster management philosophy has undergone a complete transformation under the PM Narendra Modi government.

According to him, the country has moved beyond a system focused primarily on relief and rehabilitation and entered a new era built around three pillars: risk reduction, early warning systems and zero casualty. He pointed to several recent disasters where authorities were able to prevent loss of life through advance warnings and coordinated responses.

The message is powerful and timely. Yet it also raises a larger question. If the objective is truly zero casualty, are warning systems translating into action on the ground, especially in India's fragile Himalayan region, where climate change is rapidly altering glaciers, lakes and mountain ecosystems?

That question becomes even more important in light of a warning issued by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in April 2024. Using long-term satellite observations, the space agency revealed alarming evidence that glacial lakes across the Himalayas are expanding at a significant rate. These lakes are formed as glaciers melt and retreat under rising temperatures. While they are important sources of freshwater, they can also become deadly. If the natural barriers holding these lakes in place collapse, enormous volumes of water can surge downstream in what is known as a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, or GLOF.

The flooding at Rasuwa in Nepal was due to a mud and ice avalanche, which killed nearly 1400 people is a sharp reminder of the risks we face.

Indian scientists have always given suitable and highly accurate early warning systems. One case in point is early warning of cyclones mastered by the India Meteorological Department. In the 1970's, a cyclone on the East Coast took a toll of 3,00,000 lives. Today due to a constellation of Indian satellites and a web of Doppler Radars on the coast, the casualty figures due to cyclones has dropped to double digits - an amazing development in less than five decades. Similarly, after the devastating 2004 tsunami, India put in place the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System and till date it has delivered immaculately, never given a false warning, though it must be pointed out that a tsunami of the 2004 magnitude has also not repeated itself since then.

On glaciers and the cryosphere, ISRO's assessments examined satellite imagery covering four decades from 1984 to 2023. The findings were striking. Out of 2,431 glacial lakes larger than 10 hectares that had been identified in the Himalayan region, 676 lakes had expanded significantly since 1984. Among these, 130 are located within India. Sixty-five are in the Indus basin, seven in the Ganga basin, and 58 in the Brahmaputra basin. Even more concerning was the fact that 601 of the expanding lakes, or nearly 89 per cent, had grown to more than double their original size.

The study also showed that many of these lakes are situated at extreme altitudes. A total of 314 expanding lakes lie between 4,000 and 5,000 metres, while another 296 are above 5,000 metres. Most are moraine-dammed lakes, meaning they are held back by loose accumulations of rock and sediment left behind by retreating glaciers. Such natural dams are inherently unstable and can fail because of avalanches, landslides, earthquakes, heavy rainfall or continued melting.

One example highlighted by ISRO was the Ghepang Ghat glacial lake in Himachal Pradesh. The lake expanded by 178 percent between 1989 and 2022, increasing from 36.49 hectares to 101.30 hectares.

India's Himalayan region contains one of the world's largest concentrations of glaciers outside the Polar Regions. Scientific estimates place the number of glaciers in the Indian Himalayan region at more than 9,000. These glaciers serve as water towers for major river systems that support hundreds of millions of people downstream. Yet rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and extreme weather events are accelerating glacier retreat and increasing the formation of unstable glacial lakes.

The tragedy is that warnings about these risks are no longer theoretical. India has already witnessed multiple catastrophic disasters linked to extreme weather, glacial processes and mountain instability.

The devastating Kedarnath disaster of June 2013 remains one of the worst examples. Extremely heavy rainfall and flash floods struck Uttarakhand, triggering landslides and widespread destruction. Nearly five thousand people lost their lives and entire settlements were washed away. The disaster highlighted the vulnerability of the Himalayan region to extreme weather events and the challenges of managing risks in ecologically fragile mountain areas.

A decade later, another tragedy struck in Sikkim. In October 2023, a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood originating from South Lhonak Lake sent a wall of water racing down the Teesta basin. Infrastructure, bridges, roads and communities suffered extensive damage. The event drew international attention and reinforced concerns regarding the stability of Himalayan glacial lakes under a warming climate.

Earlier, in February 2021, Uttarakhand's Chamoli district witnessed a devastating flood in the Rishi Ganga and Dhauliganga valleys. Scientific investigations suggested that a massive rock and ice avalanche triggered the disaster. The incident demonstrated how avalanches and glacier-related processes can rapidly transform into deadly downstream floods.

These disasters carry a common lesson. Early warnings based on satellite observations and scientific monitoring are essential, but they are only the first step. India already has the most sophisticated Earth imaging satellite - the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar Satellite (NISAR) that can accurately map all changes in the Earth's crust every 12 days.

This is where Amit Shah's call for a "whole of government approach" acquires immense significance. During the NIDM meeting, he argued that disaster management can no longer remain the responsibility of a handful of agencies. He called for stronger research, institutional coordination and continuous monitoring. He also acknowledged that climate change and global warming are likely to increase both the frequency and intensity of disasters in the years ahead.

The challenge now is implementation. ISRO's satellites are already providing a clear picture from space. They have identified hundreds of expanding glacial lakes and highlighted the growing threat of GLOFs.

The gap between warning and action can be measured in lives lost. If India is serious about achieving zero casualty, then satellite monitoring, real-time warning systems, hazard mapping, evacuation drills and resilient infrastructure must become standard practice across vulnerable Himalayan states.