Labor loyalists jump ship weeks ahead of Victorian election

Traditional Labor Party supporters say they are questioning their loyalty to the party, with growing disillusionment prompting many in regional Victoria to look for change.

Six weeks from the Victorian state election, Labor voters say they are turning away from the ALP but don't know who to turn to.

David Pickering from Ballarat describes himself as historically a Labor voter, but not this election.

"I feel that it's time for a change. I feel like they've become complacent and stuck with their decision-making," he said.

"They are not offering anything for the rural areas.

"They say they are going to fix the potholes, but I'm not seeing it."

Mr Pickering, 63, says voting this time is proving to be the most challenging as he grapples with the other offerings, such as the Liberals and One Nation.

"I'm more than likely going to lean towards the Liberals, but it's a tough one," he said.

He said with the seat of Eureka being Labor, the electorate has done well, but it's not the local member Michela Settle, he will vote out.

"It's the party as a brand rather than the local MP. They're not spending the money on the state and not really doing enough to help," Mr Pickering said, pointing to issues such as cost of living, potholes, and telecommunications.

'Politically homeless'

Former Labor candidate Nadia David, who ran for the seat of Indi at the 2022 federal election, said she quit the party over the state government's controversial Emergency Services and Volunteers Fund (ESVF).

The farmer, bookshop owner and lawyer joined Labor in 2019 but describes herself as "politically homeless".

"I hope Labor loses," Ms David said.

"This Labor government in Victoria is now so bloated and corrupt. It deserves to be tossed."

Ms David said she became increasingly frustrated by what she saw as Labor's metro-centric focus and lack of engagement with regional communities.

"I certainly don't see any level of engagement, and I don't see any intentional engagement with rural and regional Victorians that are outside of Labor held seats," she said.

The ESVF, which replaced the fire services levy, has sparked anger in regional Victoria, with some farmers facing bill increases in the tens of thousands of dollars.

"When that was announced, I think I pretty much resigned that day,"

she said.

Labor defectors

An Accent Research study of the Victorian state election funded by the University of Melbourne, found almost half of respondents who voted for Labor in the 2022 state election intend to vote differently this November.

Postdoctoral research fellow at Flinders University and University of Canberra, Emily Foley is a co-author of the study.

The Melbourne based academic said there was "an element of its time for change in regional areas".

"Of the 1,002 Victorians who participated, the top three issues were: cost of living, crime and public safety, and health care and hospitals," she said.

"The pothole is a perfect example, it represents 12 years of feeling as though they have been taken for granted by the Labor government."

Dr Foley said those who previously voted Labor and intend to vote One Nation were not rusted on One Nation supporters, but were shifting their vote because they felt neglected and disillusioned.

She said she did not see this as a protest but rather a grievance vote.

Multiple factors behind Labor's decline

The ABC's chief elections and data analyst Casey Briggs said Labor's decline was the result of an "accumulation" of factors, including an aging government, corruption issues and unpopular leaders.

"Labor was seriously looking at a defeat kind of from the beginning of this year," he said.

He said the previously safe Labor seat of Bendigo East would be closely watched on election night following the resignation of local member and former Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan — and the National party's endorsement of Andrew Lethlean, which could make the contest more competitive.

Briggs said traditionally safe Labor seats could also be vulnerable to One Nation.

"What we're looking at here is really the first test of One Nation support in a competitive election in Australia where government is on the line," he said.

"That means we're kind of in uncharted borders in terms of this polling rise for One Nation."

Voting for change

Jonathan Flind from Mount Clear has traditionally voted Labor, but said he plans to vote Liberal this election, citing a Coalition pledge to spend $5 billion rebuilding roads.

As for One Nation, Mr Flind said he simply did not trust its leader, Pauline Hanson.

"The fact she's had nice free trips to Mar-a-Lago Resort, and she's associated with extreme right-wing high-time UK criminal Tommy Robinson. He's very anti-Islamist. It's people like that I feel very uncomfortable that she associates with," he said.

Tracey Walsh from Wangaratta, who has generally voted Labor or Greens, is considering a donkey vote in the lower house as a protest against the major parties.

"I'm actually quite amazed I'm even saying it," she said.

The 63-year-old said she was concerned about the rise of One Nation and the major parties adopting its rhetoric.

"The major parties are sort of almost aping them in some way because they don't want to miss out on this, what they see is this groundswell of support,"

she said.

Ms Walsh said she felt her vote in the lower house would not make a difference.

She said the idea of protesting with her vote was prompted by talking to someone else her age who was "thinking the same thing".

Wanting a 'shake-up'

Ballarat resident Matthew Puku said fiscal sustainability, housing and crime were his key election issues.

He said the emergence of One Nation as a third contender could create opportunities for new ideas, and expected a change of government after November 28.

"With the shake-up comes opportunity for something newer and better,"

he said.

Mr Puku wanted to see policies that would improve long-term growth and sustainability, giving his children the chance of a better future.

Stopping the bleed

The government's decision to defer increases to the emergency services levy to July 2027, has not stopped concerns about Labor losing support in regional Victoria.

The levy prompted protests in Bendigo in June, where Labor has held seats since the 1990s.

Labor incumbents Maree Edwards and former premier Jacinta Allan are not recontesting Bendigo West and Bendigo East.

Bendigo Trades Hall secretary Luke Martin said he was seeing more voters drifting towards One Nation, with some unionists doing so in protest.

"In the regional areas, they're mostly drifting to One Nation which is obviously a huge concern for the unions and us from a working-class perspective,"

he said.

"I've had conversations with people where they've told me that they don't care if they don't agree with anything Pauline Hanson says, they're still going to vote … for One Nation because they just want to vote for somebody else."

The union is running a campaign aimed at keeping Labor voters from switching.

Mr Martin said the campaign reminded people that a "protest vote" was "very dangerous" and people needed to vote in line with their values so those values were supported in parliament.

Rural and Regional Development Minister Michaela Settle said the government recognised more needed to be done.

In a statement, a Labor spokesperson said a Liberal-National-One Nation coalition would cut regional services, pointing to school and TAFE closures and hospital privatisations under the previous government.

An Opposition spokesperson told the ABC Labor had "neglected and lied" to regional Victorians for more than a decade and could not be trusted. 

One Nation Victoria and its Victorian president Warren Pickering were also contacted for comment.