NFL Week 10 picks, odds, best bets: Lions cover in Munich, Bills crush Jets

After an unusual Week 9 in which 11 favorites covered the spread, here are Jordan Dajani's top five picks

Nov 13, 2026 at 7:50 am ET • 5 min read

Week 9 in the NFL was a weird one, as 11 favorites covered the spread. That's usually a lucrative week for bettors, but we went 2-3 against the spread. 

We knew the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks would cover the spread in their games, but the New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears unfortunately could not cover despite both winning. Then, there was the Minnesota Vikings. Carson Wentz brought potential to open up Kevin O'Connell's passing attack against the Buffalo Bills. Instead, he registered one of the worst quarterback performances in Vikings history. Good thing they brought Kirk Cousins back!

Here's a look at what's next. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 21-23-1
Overall ATS record: 68-66-2
Straight-up record: 85-50-1

New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions (-2.5) (Munich)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Check out the "pretenders and contenders" column this week. Spoiler: The Detroit Lions are a very intriguing team, while it's not time to buy stock in the New England Patriots.

It's an underrated storyline: The new Detroit defense. Kelvin Sheppard looked like he was on the hot seat at the beginning of the season, but during this four-game win streak, the Lions actually rank second in points per game allowed (15.5) and yards per game allowed (286.3). As for the Patriots, it was pretty shocking to see them give up 45 points to the Green Bay Packers. Drake Maye threw three interceptions, and now he could be down his top two running backs. Rhamondre Stevenson is dealing with a knee injury, while TreVeyon Henderson experienced an "unusual medical emergency." That means it could be Corey Kiner and Lan Larison running the ball for Mike Vrabel. I'll take the Lions with the number under a field goal. 

The pick: Lions -2.5
Projected score: Lions 28-20

Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at New York Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

The Bills lead the NFL with 32 points per game, while the New York Jets allowed 31.8 points per game over their last four. Aaron Glenn's has lost four straight games after starting 2-3, and the team is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in divisional games under this head coach.

The Bills also lead the league in total offense with 386.4 yards per game, but I'm interested in this defense. It's true that their past two opponents, the Baltimore Ravens and Vikings, weren't exactly offensive juggernauts, but Buffalo allowed just 8.0 points per game in those matchups, and an NFL-low 161.0 total yards per game over the last two weeks. It's not far-fetched to say this unit is finding their groove, and Jim Leonhard just added safety Amani Hooker at the trade deadline -- who is tied for the league lead in interceptions with five. It's crazy that he picked off Joe Burrow three times in one game a couple of weeks ago.

The Bills have won their last two games by at least 16 points. Take them to cover the big number against a struggling team here.

The pick: Bills -8.5
Projected score: Bills 30-17

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

The last time the Atlanta Falcons played at home, they handed the San Francisco 49ers their lone loss of the season. However, it feels like a lot has happened since then. The Falcons scored zero points in a rain-soaked Raymond James Stadium while allowing 324 rushing yards to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a 16-point loss. Then, the Falcons went to Madrid and got dominated by the Cincinnati Bengals, 34-17. Ja'Marr Chase exploded for 155 yards and a touchdown on 10 receptions, while Tee Higgins caught two touchdowns. Now, the Falcons return to the U.S. with no break to host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Plus, Atlanta just traded safety Jessie Bates III to the Jacksonville Jaguars three days ago. 

The Chiefs also made an addition at the trade deadline in wide receiver Josh Downs. I would have preferred a perimeter, deep-threat weapon. I mean, Sunday will mark 42 days since Mahomes' last completion on a pass traveling 20+ air yards. But Downs has been one of the most productive slot weapons in the NFL, and I think he could jump-start this passing attack. With the number at a field goal, take the Chiefs.

The pick: Chiefs -3
Projected score: Chiefs 26-21

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

The 1-7 Miami Dolphins travel to Indy to take on the 2-7 Indianapolis Colts. The big story from this matchup is that former sixth-round pick Kyle McCord will be making his NFL debut under center after Malik Willis was placed on injured reserve. That's a scary spot to be in if you're one of the worst teams in the NFL. Maybe McCord is Tom Brady, but I'm not betting on it.

As for the Colts, they traded away two receivers this week in Josh Downs and Keenan Allen, but at least star running back Jonathan Taylor knows he's staying put. The Colts kept up with the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday before ultimately losing, 27-23, and take them to cover the spread against Miami. Indy is actually 5-4 ATS and 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games against teams entering with one win or fewer.

The pick: Colts -3.5
Projected score: Colts 23-14

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Bengals are rolling, having won four straight games. They've scored 34 points in three straight games, and 30 points in four straight. Joe Burrow could join Peyton Manning in 2004 as the only quarterback in NFL history to score four total touchdowns over five straight games, and he just became the first player in NFL history to complete 70% of his passes with four total touchdowns over four straight games.

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are basically unguardable, having combined for 47 receptions, 693 yards and eight touchdowns just over the last three games. I understand this is a divisional matchup where games are typically close, and that the Steelers dropped 30 points on the Bengals in Week 3 and defeated Burrow in Pittsburgh. But I'll take the Bengals to even the series in prime time. That primetime factor is important, as Cincy is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine home primetime games. 

The pick: Bengals -3.5
Projected score: Bengals 30-24

Other Week 10 picks

Commanders (+2.5) 21-20 over Giants
Jaguars (-10.5) 30-13 over Titans
Texans (-4.5) 28-20 over Browns
Panthers (+2.5) 25-23 over Saints
Rams 23-17 over Cardinals (+9.5)
Packers 20-18 over Vikings (+3)
Seahawks 23-17 over Raiders (+6.5)
49ers (-3.5) 30-26 over Cowboys
Ravens 20-17 over Chargers (+4.5)