SP vs BJP: Who will win UP elections 2027? Yogi Adityanath as CM again or Akhilesh Yadav will get chair? Survey is out

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath appears to have a strong advantage over Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, with a News18 Mega Survey indicating a clear preference for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The survey found that 66.6% of respondents would vote for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) if Assembly elections were held now. The Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance received 26.4% support, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was backed by 5.4% of those surveyed.

Adityanath also emerged as the preferred choice for the chief minister's post, securing the backing of 66.2% of respondents. Akhilesh Yadav was named by 24.4%. Moreover, 65.2% of participants said the BJP should get another term in the state.

The survey, conducted among 30,925 people across Uttar Pradesh's 75 districts, also examined the issues that could influence voter choices, including governance, employment, infrastructure and law and order.

What is working in Yogi Adityanath's favour?

The state government's performance on law and order received the strongest approval, with 74% of respondents expressing satisfaction. Infrastructure ranked next at 68.6%, followed by the delivery of welfare schemes at 66.3%.

Law and order also emerged as the most significant electoral issue, with 33.4% identifying it as a key factor that could influence their vote. The issue has particular resonance among the ruling alliance's supporters: 89.6% of current BJP/NDA voters approved of the government's performance in this area.

Overall, 77.1% of respondents said they were satisfied with the Yogi Adityanath government's performance, while 13.5% expressed dissatisfaction.

Employment emerges as a concern

Despite the favourable assessment of several governance indicators, employment remains an area of concern for the state government. It received the lowest satisfaction rating among the seven parameters examined, with 58.3% of respondents approving of the government's performance.

The assessment was more critical among unemployed people, among whom satisfaction stood at 50.7%. Landless and unskilled workers also reported relatively low satisfaction levels, at around 52-53%.

The survey examined public perceptions of law and order, infrastructure, welfare delivery, healthcare, education, corruption and employment.

How firmly are voters backing the BJP and SP-Congress?

The BJP appears to have retained a substantial portion of its previous electoral support. Around 91% of respondents who recalled voting for the BJP in the 2022 and 2024 elections said they would back the party again.

The SP-Congress alliance recorded voter retention of approximately 83-85%. However, its current support was higher than respondents' recalled voting patterns in the previous elections: up 3.7 percentage points compared with 2022 and 2.4 percentage points compared with 2024.

The survey also found strong support for the ruling alliance among its existing voters. Within this group, 94.7% were satisfied with the state government's performance and 93.3% preferred Adityanath as the next chief minister.

What do voters think about Ram Mandir donations?

The survey also sought respondents' views on allegations of irregularities involving donations to the Ram Mandir. Around 31.2% held temple trust officials responsible for the alleged theft, while 20.6% pointed to staff or contractors. Another 13.7% blamed the state government.

It also covered public opinion on the recent Gen-Z student protests, an issue that has featured in political discussions in the state.

What does the survey say about regional and urban-rural trends?

Assessments of the government's performance were broadly similar among urban and rural respondents, with no substantial divide emerging across the seven governance indicators.

Ruhelkhand stood out among the state's regions, recording the highest or near-highest satisfaction levels across most of the parameters.

Survey methodology

News18 conducted the survey between September 17 and October 2, 2026, interviewing 30,925 people across all 75 districts of Uttar Pradesh. The sample was distributed in proportion to the population of each district and included respondents from both urban and rural areas.

The interviews were conducted door-to-door through face-to-face interactions using Computer Aided Personal Interviews (CAPI) and a structured questionnaire. The survey had initially planned to cover 30,000 people.

With the Assembly elections scheduled for January-February 2027, the findings indicate a sizeable advantage for the BJP at this stage. However, employment concerns and the SP-Congress alliance's improvement over its recalled previous-election support remain important aspects of the electoral picture.

About the Author

Garvit Bhirani is a journalist based in Gurugram. He is a Deputy Chief Content Producer at LiveMint, where he covers national and international news stories, focusing on accuracy and compelling storytelling for readers. <br><br> With a total of six years of experience in journalism, he has previously worked with Vaco Binary Semantics for Google, taking on the role of news curation lead, and reported from the field on health, education, and agriculture stories for 101reporters and News9. He has also served as a content editor for entertainment and news media organisations. <br><br> Garvit holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in journalism and mass communication from Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University and Gurugram University, respectively. During college days, he joined India’s only non-profit student journalism network, where he anchored daily news updates and produced his own weekly show called ‘Data Fix’. <br><br> He was selected for the YES Foundation Media for Social Change Fellowship in Delhi, the Talking Data to the Fourth Pillar residential workshop, and the VOICE Fellowship in Pune. <br><br> He holds certificates in COVID-19-verification reporting, data journalism, food & agriculture, tech policy, media literacy and countering misinformation, and tackling election disinformation courses from Thomson Foundation, IndiaSpend, The Dialogue, US Mission in India, and AFP. <br><br> He can be reached on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/garvit-bhirani">LinkedIn</a> or on <a href="https://x.com/GarvitBhirani">@garvitbhirani</a> on X