Super El Niño could cause 451,000 deaths, scientists predict - as they call for urgent action to save lives

Almost half a million people could die as a result of the Super El Niño, a new report has warned. 

Scientists from the University of Chicago used climate models to predict the impact the devastating climate event could have. 

According to the experts, 451,000 lives will be lost – including 239,000 in the next six months alone. 

'The anomalously warm temperatures that most of the globe will see during this El Niño event are a "postcard from the future": while they feel anomalous now, they will become normal just a few decades into the future,' the researchers warned.

'Mortality projections for the near term provide a signal of where we are headed if new adaptation investments do not materialize. 

'The difference with climate change is that there is more time to undertake adaptations to save lives.'

According to the experts, 451,000 lives will be lost – including 239,000 in the next six months alone

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that causes the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean to become warmer than average 

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate event in the Pacific Ocean that affects weather around the world and temporarily boosts global temperatures.

The current event has been underway since June and is expected to last into next year – and has been developing at unprecedented speeds.

According to the researchers, countries in the global south will see the most heat deaths over the next six months. 

Countries across the Sahel (Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad) will see an additional 66,800 heat deaths from September-February, compared to a normal year. 

In South East Asia, the extra heat is projected to cause an additional 19,400 deaths in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, and 19,300 in Indonesia. 

Elsewhere, India faces 15,800 additional deaths, while Brazil could see 13,300. 

As for when these deaths will occur, the researchers say that timings will vary considerably between countries.  

'Those countries projected to see the largest number of excess heat–related deaths in the latter half of our forecast period – allowing more time to act – include Nigeria and Indonesia, which will face 15,400 and 10,400 more heat deaths than normal between December and February, respectively, and Brazil and India, which we project to see 8,000 and 7,400 additional heat–related deaths, respectively, over that three month period,' they said. 

Scientists project that global land temperatures will be 1.2°C (2.1°F) above normal in the coming months due in large part to the Super El Niño

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Looking beyond February, the researchers predict that heat-deaths could rise in the northern hemisphere.

They added: 'We will provide updated, interactive forecasts pinpointing where heat–related deaths are likely to be concentrated and shift over time, giving decision–makers what they need to target interventions in real time through this period.' 

Based on the findings, the researchers are calling for urgent action in areas flagged as high risk for heat deaths. 

'Some solutions already exist,' they said, highlighting things like early warning systems, expanded water availability, and wider access to cooling technologies. 

However, they point out that many of these solutions have only been tested in specific regions.  

They added: 'We need to build the evidence base now for what works, and then invest in preparations and planning. 

'Preparing for a hotter future will require a far more granular, continually updated understanding of what saves lives across different regions, climates, and health systems.'

Thecountries that will experience the most heat deaths

1. Nigeria: 31,400
2. Indonesia: 19,300
3. Sudan: 17,500
4. India: 15,800
5. Brazil: 13,300
6. DRC: 10,000
7. Niger: 10,000
8. Chad: 7,900
9. Philippines: 6,500
10. South Sudan: 5,600
11. Vietnam: 5,600
12. Mali: 5,200
13. Thailand:5,000
14. Burkina Faso: 4,700
15. Ethiopia: 4,500
16. Uganda: 3,800
17. Pakistan: 3,600
18. Ghana: 3,600
19. United States: 3,500
20. Cameroon: 3,300
21. Mozambique: 3,200
22. Tanzania: 3,000
23. Benin: 2,600
24. Somalia: 2,600
25. Cambodia: 2,400
26. Venezuela: 2,300
27. Colombia: 2,200
28. Kenya: 2,100
29. Yemen: 2,100
30. Cote d'Ivoire: 2,000
31. Togo: 1,800
32. Ecuador: 1,700
33. Egypt: 1,500
34. Peru: 1,500
35. Senegal: 1,400
36. Madagascar: 1,300
37. Myanmar: 1,200
38. Malawi: 1,200
39. South Africa: 1,200
40. Zambia: 1,200
41. Angola: 1,100
42. Mexico: 990
43. Haiti: 960
44. Central African Republic: 910
45. Guinea: 890
46. Zimbabwe: 860
47. Cuba: 820
48. Eritrea: 810
49. Italy: 780